Caza Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[dynamohum] 10/9/2015 09:41

You just love the attention don't you PA, being such a Pratt must have taken years to master , or perhaps it's in your DNA.
Anyway, whichever it is we all think you are very funny.

[pavey ark] 10/9/2015 09:14

Living up to your name again.
I have never called him bombastic or arrogant or a bully.
I may have more than hinted that I consider him duplicitous, underhand, untrustworthy and now condescending.
Perhaps I'm being unfair but there is plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise.

As far as responding with good grace you perhaps have a point.
I could have ignored the fact that I had put forward the partial refinance and use of preference shares more than once only to have this ignored or rubbished but he wasn't holding then and spent his time telling everyone who would listen that Caza was in deep trouble and it would all end in tears.
Now,although there has been no news and no material change in Caza's fortunes he has bought in so now we've all to be good friends, hold hand and dance round the maypole together.

As far as kicking someone is concerned I don't think I've kicked anyone in my life ( off the football pitch).
Perhaps your just reliving childhood memories of when you were bullied for .....well....for being you.

[buffythebuffoon] 10/9/2015 08:34

I know no more about1628 than you do (although you profess to), but he is clearly not a bombastic arrogant individual, nor is he a bulletin board bully. Why don't you just stop trying to play the alpha male and respond with some grace?

I've known a few like you. From your behaviour I perceive you to be the kid who kicks someone while they're on the ground after someone else has knocked him down.

Buffy

[pavey ark] 09/9/2015 22:19

I see you have added condescension to your many other dubious talents, you must have the full pack by now.

[1628386] 09/9/2015 21:38

Late buy of 1m shares at 2.13p (shown as a sell) but I am reliably informed this was a buy order having been filled earlier on the day, around the time when the share price jumped up by 11% .. The buyer is certainly confident!

Back to serious debate about CAZA's refinance options rather than looking at volume buys and L2 ...

PA earlier suggested a preference share issue of $10m to retire YA and provide cash for 3 wells. This is probably the most sensible option I have heard from him and it's worthy of further analysis...

I think the $10m raise (to fund the clearance of YA and 3 wells) is certainly a credible option as this would allow CAZA to grow production at a modest pace until a better POO environment (when a full refinance would be achievable on better terms).

As PA pointed out, the $10m raise would likely have a very positive share price impact as this effectively keeps CAZA in business until a full refinance is possible. Apollo would be pleased as it would increase production towards delivering on the covenant which is in breach. The preference shares would likely have the potential to build in a higher share price conversion at a future date into common equity. So, in dilution terms, what could this look like?

Let's throw some numbers into this proposal:

YA have $4m (£2.6m) of convertible notes at 92.5% of the share price At today's price this equates to a potential dilution of 125m shares.

If a preference share issue was successful at $10m (£6.6m) with a future conversion share price at say 5p then dilution would equate to 132m shares.. effectively providing the cash for 3 wells for similar dilution.

When CAZA raised the funds from YA in feb the share price was 8p and POO was around the $45 level.

So we can see how the impact of this type of deal could have on the share price as the YA cash did not provide money for new wells, yet the preference share pays for 3 wells with the same dilution.

As you know, I have been pro-takeover but have at the same time valued Mike Ford and his Ops team. For me, this option provides a very credible solution and I for one would support it. I would even stay invested!!

Well done PA, you seem to be learning a bit about finance (tongue in cheek, before you bite my head off)

[red rook] 09/9/2015 16:38

Regarding the lifting of the US oil export ban:

I hope that this ridiculous ban is finally lifted. I am happy to read that it is for a full lifting of the ban. Not limited or some half measures as previously proposed. As pointed out above, the lifting of the ban would allow a closing of the price differential between WTI and Brent.

Further, it would remove the continual fear mongering of market speculators, and media reporters, regarding the limited storage capacity at Cushing etc. Also, it would be another nail in the coffin of Saudi's ill thought out tactic of pushing US producers to the wall. Until now the US was producing for domestic consumption only. The true competitors to the Saudi's were always the Russians, who are fighting to supply Europe and the Far East. All the Saudi's have achieved is to help bring the US into the oil export market.

Also, I hope US refineries are given a kicking to make the necessary changes to their system to allow a higher mix of light sweet crude that the US produces, and the sour crude that they import. This would help increase their own domestic market.

Some Interesting reading:

The Saudi Oil Price War Is Backfiring
hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Saudi-Oil-Price-War-Is-Backfiring.html

U.S. oil exports: Coming soon?

[pavey ark] 09/9/2015 15:38

Micronesiac, I've no doubt DH could answer your question but as I was checking in I think I can give my 2p worth.
Wti has traditionally sold for less than Brent because of the restricted ( albeit very large) US market.
The difference between wti and Brent should disappear and as the US supplies only 10% of the world oil production it looks like the new price would be much closer to the world price (Brent)than the current wti price.
There is a second bonus for US producers in that when there is a plentiful supply they tend to get screwed over the price that they get at the wellhead and during 2014 this "differential" soared to over $15. The high differential is usually caused by refinery demand and pipeline congestion but if you now only need to get your oil to an oil handling port the differential should fall.
I have previously suggested that the removal of the oil export ban could easily add $6 to $10 to the price Permian producers receive.
Edit, called away during typing so now you have two replies.

[dynamohum] 09/9/2015 15:33

Micro- - - the lifting of the oil export ban would reduce if not entirely eliminate the discount between the cost of Brent and WTI, which is currently nearly $4 , it has been much higher.

[eyesclosed] 09/9/2015 15:21

Isn't 180,000 shares about £3,600?

[1628386] 09/9/2015 11:48

The buying pressure continues... another 180K buy

Looking like a deep pocketed buyer in the background

[currypasty] 09/9/2015 11:33

500k.. if only I had some cash...lol

[filterwest] 09/9/2015 11:32

someone is confident with 500K shares bought!

[dynamohum] 09/9/2015 10:02

This may help going forward

A US House Energy and Commerce subcommittee is expected Thursday to approve a bill to lift all limits on US crude exports. The House energy and power subcommittee is scheduled to vote on a bill from Texas Representative Joe Barton, a Republican, to repeal these limits, which have been in place for roughly four decades. In a joint statement, Michigan Representative Fred Upton, a Republican and the full committee’s chairman, and Kentucky Representative Ed Whitfield, a Republican and the subcommittee’s chairman, said current limits on US crude exports have become “obsolete.R21; “We have taken a thoughtful approach to reconsidering oil exports, and the time to lift the ban is now,” Upton and Whitfield said. The subcommittee vote, which will be the first of its kind in the House, is expected to set up a potential full House vote as early as this month. There are enough votes in the […]

Click here to view full article at www.platts.com

[pavey ark] 09/9/2015 09:49

LG, I certainly know of some who are have a very large number of Caza shares and these were bought at a price well north of this.
I sometimes wonder how these people react if they log on here and see some of the posts we get these days.

Back to your point though, I don't know if we could have a whip round but if MF is as well connected as has been suggested then perhaps he could pass the hat around.

If you are serious then I agree that I for one would be quite happy with a reasonable payment on a preference share and I've no doubt others would join in.
The problem with this is the time taken and expenses but it is another option.
The attraction of these preference shares to investors is that any conversion factor probably looks good as the problem here is lack of cash, so as soon as the fund raising is completed the the share price rises and gets closer to your conversion figure.

[lord gnome] 09/9/2015 09:26

I think there might be enough posters on here to allow CAZA to raise the better part of $10 millions from pref shares, PA.

[pavey ark] 09/9/2015 08:27

I don't like the fact that time is ticking on with no news but it should be noted that Apollo and Caza are working together here and I doubt if Apollo are in anyway concerned about their investment.Caza is still generating cash, Apollo is still getting their 12% and their investment is covered,very generously, by assets.
As far as refinancing is concerned it has always been my belief that Mike Ford was going for "the big one" but as a long term investor in Caza I'm not sure I would want this in the current oil price environment.
A loan/fund raising of $10m would pay off YA and allow for three wells to be drilled.
Now that the preference share option is available and these would stand immediately behind the Apollo assets, it should be possible to raise cash at a reasonable rate with perhaps a staged conversion built in.
I favour this option above being bounced into a deal that does not reflect Caza's asset value.
Only a couple of weeks ago Caza said they could make acceptable returns at this oil price level and that means at least a 25% RoR.
Borrowing at say 8% to get a 25%+ ROR return is fair enough but when it moves the company further along the road of riding out the sub $50 oil price then it looks very good.
The oil export ban will go ( surely ?) and as a low cost producer with a whole string of proven, high producing wells just waiting to be drilled, Caza can make lots of cash with oil at $60.
Having said all this I really would like some hard news.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/9/2015 08:05

I thought for a second you'd been appointed vice captain. :-}

Buffy

[1628386] 09/9/2015 06:08

Oh Buffy

You always seem to put a negative spin on things ;-)

Haha!

[buffythebuffoon] 08/9/2015 21:51

Hi 1628,

It just looks like noise to me.

Perhaps from the dark side it makes sense. :-}

Buffy

[lord gnome] 08/9/2015 18:42

Good point buffy. I think hope is taking over from logic in my case. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

[buffythebuffoon] 08/9/2015 18:26

If there was a leak, you wouldn't still have the price at 2p!

Buffy

[lord gnome] 08/9/2015 16:54

Yes, perhaps a leaky source close to whoever is putting up the money.