Caza Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[1628386] 08/9/2015 15:28

I don't for one minute think CAZA management would leak news. It's whoever they are talking to that tends to be the source of leaks

[pavey ark] 08/9/2015 15:12

Unless things have changed radically within Caza management there will be no leaking of news.
At the country estate this week and if you lead a blameless life,as I do, you get weather as glorious as this.
(For those who follow my excursions up into the high fells I came up from Glenridding and up Catstye Cam from the north. Very steep route but had it to myself, busy once you get onto the Swirral Edge path which comes close.)

[balbains324] 08/9/2015 14:21

Well this is a nice suprise.......Let's see what happens.

[andrea152] 08/9/2015 13:15

Well yeehah and dang me to diddly - havnt this old rattler move lik this is a while ............!

[tidy 2] 08/9/2015 13:07

News logged in the system here I reckon judging by that sudden jump on L2

[lord gnome] 08/9/2015 12:47

Interesting bit of price action earlier. Peel Hunt moved their bid up to 2p and forced three MMs who were on the offer at 2p to raise their prices. Very aggressive. Has some news leaked?

[oilbuy] 08/9/2015 12:41

Nice surprise. 28%

[1628386] 08/9/2015 12:37

... and there we have it. All MMs moved in the space of 8 minutes

Very interesting now ...

[1628386] 08/9/2015 08:50

Consistent buying pressure over the last week or so has mopped up most of the liquidity and buy price now sits at full ask with 4 MMs on 2p

We know that the covenant approval was until end Sept and as at the mid August point CAZA advised they are in advanced negotiations, so news anytime.

It will be interesting to see how quick the 4 MMs move off 2p if buying continues as this would suggest whispers are leaking.

The market pushed up well over 50% in advance of the fundraise in February this year.

The market will hear and react well before the RNS to us. Let's see what happens from here ....

[red rook] 07/9/2015 08:33

An interesting read..



By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Cernobbio, Italy
3:15PM BST 06 Sep 2015

.... 'Adnan Shihab-Eldin, the former secretary-general of OPEC, said the oil cartel is in "bad shape" and may have to rethink its current strategy. "Can OPEC really afford to the policy started in November of letting the market determine prices," said at the Ambrosetti forum.'

....'Mr Shihab-Eldin said US shale drillers have proved remarkably resilient, slashing costs from $70 a barrel to nearer $50 through new technology and a switch to higher-yielding "sweet spots". The rig-count has halved but production has hardly fallen.'

[pavey ark] 05/9/2015 09:31

I don't really have any idea what you are talking about. If you mean to ask what I think each individual property is worth then I did give my valuation of some properties in the recent past but you were hardly receptive to this as you were obviously at a different phase in your investment cycle at the time.

The Endurance and Mewbourne figures are out for July and Caza investors can only be very impressed by the results from Marathon Road and Broadcaster.

I've more to add about these but in a bit of a rush.

[1628386] 03/9/2015 20:20

Blimey! You are roiled ... I thought your game of golf may have calmed you down a bit...

You said..

"We must also remember that Caza doesn't have one big lease in the middle of the ocean and could sell part of their portfolio and keep the rest"

So I assumed you are thinking about what the sum of parts valuation might look like?

I wondered what was in your thought process that's all.

I appreciate that Netherland and Sewell valued Caza's assets at $154m as of the 30th of December but is that the same as sum as parts?

What are your thoughts?

[pavey ark] 03/9/2015 18:58

For goodness sake I have just said that a sum of parts/asset valuation is pointless and have given my reasons for thinking this way.

Netherland and Sewell valued Caza's assets at $154m as of the 30th of December,I have pointed this out a number of times.
You can try and factor in other developments since then but the oil price was approximately where it is today and the production cost had not yet fallen.

I have repeatedly given my estimation of asset value (with a considerable write down even on the discount used by N&S) but this was not accepted by you.
I appreciate that the situation has now changed in that you now hold shares in Caza but I doubt if the asset valuation has decreased.

Again; this a pointless exercise !!!

[1628386] 03/9/2015 17:35

PA

We've found our equilibrium... It seems you are happy with 'rose tinted' so long as I don't whine at being called Del Boy. Hey ho... so long as you are happy, I'm happy.

I think at the root of where we differ is our investment strategies. More to the point our investment strategies in AIM.

I tend to be a LTH in blue chip companies as they are more mature companies and (fairly) stable and predictable. Whereas with AIM, companies by contrast are much less predictable, need various finance injections to grow and they operate with in a reduced regulatory environment.

Investments in AIM are not to be done on a standstill basis, as and when new information arrives, it is always prudent to re-visit ones evaluation, and change as required. This market will have no compassion and the MMs are there to serve their purpose of happily taking your hard earned money.

So, your previous posts suggestion I have changed tack to suit me is wrong. Circumstances have changed that better suit my investment preferences is more accurate and that should be encouraged not condemned.

You say not to number crunch and work out various scenarios as to what will be left for shareholders as we don't know the values. Well that's the job of an investor - to work it out to the best of their knowledge and invest based on a perceived gap in the market.

To make me out to be 'selective' and have an ulterior motive is very naive on your part PA. In the world of AIM, reacting fast when things change fast (which they always do) is vital.

I personally would welcome your views on a sum of parts valuation.

We both admit that CAZA is more of a 'hobby' than anything so whilst we are waiting for news, let's crunch the numbers to what you think they might be worth in today's market. I'd happily debate them with you.

Del-Boy :-)

[balbains324] 03/9/2015 14:06

Well gentlemen let's call it a draw. I value both sides of the argument and believe that this still is a very good board for discussion. Back to CAZA I believe we have a few points that we are waiting on.1. Refinance - very important2. Proving assets - easy ones first3. WTI price - highly subjective4. Takeover???

[1628386] 03/9/2015 06:17

PA

I acknowledge that is your view and I understand why.

However, that may or may not be the consensus view. I feel this board is a better place where posters have the freedom to debate all (CAZA) related information.

Stifling debate to topics only you are happy with, creates an autocratic environment that puts off new & existing posters to contribute.

I'm also going to repeat this for a last time.. (Seeing as you keep referencing otherwise) ... CAZA is the ONLY oil sector share I own

Now, back to CAZA. I acknowledged the Devon report and technological advances in techniques. It is very interesting how the industry has developed in just 12 months.

I for one would be genuinely delighted if CAZA found a sustainable plan to execute these new technologies on their prolific properties. If that were the case, I would remain happily invested.

[pavey ark] 02/9/2015 22:44

Let's leave the continual speculation on financing and refinancing until we have news ,good or bad.
We should have some info soon but this oil price fall back couldn't have come at a worse time.I have always said that the oil price was my only concern and is something that affect all oil companies,this blinding piece of logic has been lost on some who sold Caza only to buy other oil shares.
The well information and things like the Devon presentation are hard facts and can be commented on constructively.
Most Caza investors would not be happy if there were a takeover at anything like this price and people who have bought in recently with the prospect of a quick profit ( nothing wrong with that) should perhaps just buy and wait with their finger over the sell button without continually making the same repeated call for a sale and therefore a quick
profit,again,nothing wrong with that.

[1628386] 02/9/2015 21:18

Thanks Brookie .. That was a great read.

Devon are drilling from cashflow and just look at the synergies they are driving out with new techniques for drilling and completions, downspacing per section adding to inventories, enhanced completion designs, productivity gains on drilling times and 30 day IP rates up 50%!!

This is where CAZA was heading before the POO collapse. The holy grail was always to reach a point of funding growth through internally generated cashflow.

In a way, I wish it were possible for CAZA to refinance and find a way to reach that goal but I still think at current POO, it's just too steep a mountain to achieve self financing without a massive injection of funds.

This still leads me to think a takeover is most likely. Obviously Devon is too big to be interested in CAZA and clearly has enough to go at from its own inventories; but a small, mid-cap company with cash reserves looking for an excellent portfolio add-on will be very interested I'm sure.

CAZA are sitting on some excellent assets that can offer more and more as time passes due to technological advances. They also have deferred tax assets that would be appealing to a profitable company.

We know Mike Ford is well connected, let's see if he can negotiate a decent offer for the company.

PS...

PA ... I did want to comment more on your link yesterday but I kind of felt you were looking for others opinions as you started your post "Not sure the above link would be of any interest to the current in/out traders"

I am clearly in that camp at the moment (trader of this share) although I am not looking to do a quick 'in/out' ... I am waiting for the outcome of a refinance or takeout and then reassess.

I have (as I always do) been very transparent and commented real time on my purchase price and date, and will continue to do so. (I purchased a few more today) What's probably made me very bullish at the moment is that it's crunch time ... One way or the other.

[pavey ark] 02/9/2015 20:38

Yes a very interesting read Brookie.
I posted a link yesterday showing Devon's 10k lateral Avalon ( Lower Brushy Canyon) well and even though it was only 400 yards from the current Lennox well and the first proper horizontal into this upper zone the response here was almost zero.
I thought this well was of very real significance to Caza but it looks like others took little notice.

The cost reductions shown in the Devon presentation were certainly significant and I see they give an average EUR per well zone of 600k boe. When I first got interested in Caza they were quoting 330k boe per zone.
The Wolfcamp in the Permian Basin gets a bit of a mention.


I notice that Mewbourne have just started producing from a BS2 well very close to Caza's two BS3 wells at Caza Ridge.
The Mewbourne ( Antelope) well has been producing for less than a month but the results look good and Caza certainly intended to drill into the BS2 at Caza Ridge.

[brasso3] 02/9/2015 20:07

30 day IPs gone from 900 - 1400 BOEPD. Nice!

[brookie2441] 02/9/2015 19:46

An interesting read.