Caza Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[gkp heros] 07/8/2015 21:17

Looks like getting back into bed with yorkville was not such a good idea. What were they thinking YV will not stop shorting this until 0pIt seems like Ford and the management need miracle now. Things were going so well until the crash

[gkp heros] 07/8/2015 21:10

I sold them in 1 million tranches. I hold quite a few more than that. But after losing so much here. I now sell some when they hit a decent profit. Did you buy any buffy I hope so?

[buywell3] 07/8/2015 19:32

Looks like CAZA has a problem


I can give the name and address of a very reasonable watchmaker

He has been replacing mainsprings in some of my purchases for £20 including an oil and a clean service too

[buffythebuffoon] 07/8/2015 18:19

Yes I know it was JLP! I was asking if you sold them in one transaction. I couldn't see trades at the price you quoted, and nothing like that volume?

Buffy

[gkp heros] 07/8/2015 16:22

No LOL I flogged 3 million JLP

[shawzie] 07/8/2015 15:36

I think that the next OPEC meeting is early December 2015. We may have to wait until then for any substantial shift in policy or price.

[buffythebuffoon] 07/8/2015 11:35

GKP, you sold 3 million in one transaction?

Buffy

[fitton] 07/8/2015 08:23

I think we have now reached a critical point with the oil price. Its bouncing around this years low point, similar to the price it dropped to around March this year.A steady recovery from this point to above the $50 mark may point to the worst being over.The market may have reached the point of maximum pressure with production volumes etc. There is the Iraq factor to consider, but as mentioned earlier, maybe trying to over produce and drive the oil price down is not the answer.Could we now see an orderly cut in production from Opec as the next step.My gut feeling is a small cut in production may be on the cards.

[pavey ark] 07/8/2015 06:41

My point exactly.
Caza's laterals are in the range 3800-4200 ft not 4000-7000.
Drilling costs are less of a factor and a MRO well which requires a 6000ft frac is going to cost more than a Caza well requiring a 4000ft frac even if the total length drilled is the same.

The long lateral costs have come down 35% from c.$9m to $6m.

If MRO can AVERAGE close to $6m they are doing very well but that does not support your view that Caza's production costs would be above $5m.

[crosseyed] 06/8/2015 18:46

Pavey Ark,

MRO's wells in the EFS, all horizontal wells, have a measured depth in the range 17,000 - 20,000 ft with laterals in the range 4000 - 7000 ft.

I have not observed CAZA's wells in detail, but theirs seem to be around 15,000 ft measured depth.

I think both are more like apples than pears!

c

[pavey ark] 06/8/2015 14:54

cashandcard, now that was certainly worth a read.

Our Saudi friends seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place: fracked if they do and fracked if they don't !!!...........sorry about that.
I had no idea they were getting through the cash at such a rate. No wonder old T.Boone was sceptical as to their willingness ,or even their ability, to carry on with the fight.

$60/$65 would see the Permian producers sitting pretty and even those out in the lesser regions would be ok but I think one can forget about the true "shale" producers and the mad,tar sands schemes.

Actually a period of a stable $60/$70 oil price may be best for companies in the better US plays as off shore/ Arctic exploration is still not attractive at that price.

Another reason for the drop in the oil price could be the lack of news concerning the underlying unrest in the middle east. Somehow I don't think that will go away.

[cashandcard] 06/8/2015 13:50

"If the aim was to choke the US shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly, just as they misjudged the growing shale threat at every stage for eight years. "It is becoming apparent that non-OPEC producers are not as responsive to low oil prices as had been thought, at least in the short-run," said the Saudi central bank in its latest stability report.

"The main impact has been to cut back on developmental drilling of new oil wells, rather than slowing the flow of oil from existing wells. This requires more patience," it said.

One Saudi expert was blunter. "The policy hasn't worked and it will never work," he said.

By causing the oil price to crash, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have certainly killed off prospects for a raft of high-cost ventures in the Russian Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, the deep waters of the mid-Atlantic, and the Canadian tar sands.

Consultants Wood Mackenzie say the major oil and gas companies have shelved 46 large projects, deferring $200bn of investments.

The problem for the Saudis is that US shale frackers are not high-cost. They are mostly mid-cost, and as I reported from the CERAWeek energy forum in Houston, experts at IHS think shale companies may be able to shave those costs by 45pc this year - and not only by switching tactically to high-yielding wells.

Advanced pad drilling techniques allow frackers to launch five or ten wells in different directions from the same site. Smart drill-bits with computer chips can seek out cracks in the rock. New dissolvable plugs promise to save $300,000 a well. "We've driven down drilling costs by 50pc, and we can see another 30pc ahead," said John Hess, head of the Hess Corporation.

It was the same story from Scott Sheffield, head of Pioneer Natural Resources. "We have just drilled an 18,000 ft well in 16 days in the Permian Basin. Last year it took 30 days," he said.

The North American rig-count has dropped to 664 from 1,608 in October but output still rose to a 43-year high of 9.6m b/d June. It has only just begun to roll over. "The freight train of North American tight oil has kept on coming," said Rex Tillerson, head of Exxon Mobil"

[pavey ark] 06/8/2015 11:04

Crosseyed I read a report yesterday from A US major that their long lateral Wolfcamp wells had come down 35% this year and expect further improvements.
$9.2m to about $6m from memory.
This is even greater savings than I predicted for Caza .
Wells differ and you have to compare "apples with apples".

[crosseyed] 06/8/2015 10:48

Pavey Ark,

Regarding the current cost of drilling a well to completion, MRO Marathon have today published their Q2 2015 presentation...



I refer you to slide 12 which shows that MRO are leading their peers in the EFS in terms of drilling efficiency with a new well now costing $5.9 million (and the same in their Bakken fields).

I expect they will get down to $5 million though :}

c

PS I would definitely agree with "reducing carbon dioxide is not good" - think of how vegetation growth has increased over the past decades with crops actually needing less water in a higher CO2 environment, now there's a real correlation as opposed to the risible one with global warming (now politically altered to "climate change") - but I'm swimming against the tide!

[pavey ark] 06/8/2015 08:38

As Caza is my only oil investment I have tended to see all things oil in the light of the immediate effect on Caza but recently I've been drawn to the wider issue of oil and started to look out a bit in terms of timescale.

Watched a FOX business video yesterday,an interview with T.Boone Pickens,with the old boy as wonderfully forthright and pugnacious as always.

T.Boone is standing with his prediction of oil at $70 (minimum)by the end of the year. Now there is the fact that Pickens has a very large personal investment in oil and gas so some might say "well he would say that " but it was the way that he swatted the trite and currently very fashionable points put to him that impressed me.

Saudi production amazed him and he has great doubts about its sustainability and he is convinced that they have no desire/appetite to sell oil at $50
Iran: not this year and how much can they bring on.
Then the one two:
Global demand is rising , major oil field output is declining.(he stressed this)

It was good to see the interviewers laughing nervously and twittering in the background but they certainly did not challenging anything he said.





Couple of articles from "Oilprice"

Both from the same guy so it is his thing but I've only put them up as one view and should perhaps be taken as a counter to the current media output.

RE: above article. I note that 2014 had the lowest oil discovery rate in decades even though vast sums were spent on exploration and oil was high.
Much less is being spent on exploration now.

[dragonsteeth] 05/8/2015 18:15

Hi PA, yep things are fine with me, I've kept out of the spats on here - lack of time, interest and of course shares in Caza!
You may remember that a frequent source if mine was the U.S. Site SeekingApha. For some reason they've suddenly started sending"alerts" to my phone, I probably did something unawares. Anyway, a recent one was " Oxy and The Permian" . You might find it of interest , sorry don't have a link , but Googling Oxy, SeekingAlpha The Permian should find it. As it's 1/4 lye reporting time for the big boys, you might find SA also have somethingon Concho Resources and others too, they were always interesting.

[pavey ark] 05/8/2015 13:25

LG, these tend to be regional and I doubt if one is more correct or acceptable than another.

[lord gnome] 05/8/2015 12:14

Hunger and burst? New one on me PA. Feast and famine, surely?

[pavey ark] 05/8/2015 11:34

fiaz 1983,
again you would seem to be countering some point I made and again I am not sure what it is.
I've no doubt that alternative energy developments have crossed the minds of the Sadis and who could argue that reduced carbon emissions are not good but coal and heavy oil are in the firing line before low sulphur, light wti.

On a personal note; I bought a 4X4 four years ago and said to my wife we would keep it for three years and replace it with some sort of hybrid/electric vehicle (I've always been a bit green,if you know what I mean ?) .Nothing wrong with the car and so I'll hold on but my three years could stretch out to six !!

On a slightly more general and positive note.

Caza and other permian producers would be quite happy and profitable with an oil price of $60, OPEC and almost every true oil and gas exploration company would not be happy/profitable at this price.
It is very expensive to explore for oil and Caza is certainly NOT an exploration company.

The US may have caused a "glut" but the low oil price will cause not only a drop in current US production but will certainly reduce the exploration and development worldwide and the big fields are declining.
Remember, oil isn't just used in transport and Gas will always be an excellent means of generating electricity as it is comparatively clean and offers a very short response time.

Without the US "shale revolution" there is little doubt that the oil price would be well over $100 due to a shortage of supply.
The margin between hunger and burst is quite slim.

[pavey ark] 05/8/2015 09:32

I've never considered myself a conspiracy theorist , Oswald was the lone nutter, the americans did go to the moon, but this guy has been making this point for some time and he would appear to have the figures to back up his view that things are not what they seem or what they should be.

[swerves1] 05/8/2015 09:31

Anyone know when the Q2 results are expected out?

[swerves1] 04/8/2015 18:25

NewforestCorrection - when the price dropped, he said he flogged 3m instead! Lol

[swerves1] 04/8/2015 18:18

Newforest,I agree with you on that one. As they say, "self-praise, no praise".Also, seems strange that he said he bought in the morning and then when the price dropped he changed his tune and said that he bought instead! Lol