Castelnau Share Discussion Threads

[jamtin] 01/6/2008 00:23

Dividend payment date was 23rd May and I haven't received it yet. Anyone else had theirs settled?

[deadly] 17/4/2008 17:14

Nice fat divi due next week (XD), so I picked some up at 415 today. The recent weakness is strange given the strengths of other financials.

[miamisteve] 10/3/2008 10:10

Read the UBS report - price target 600p

Key Points

1) EPS 23% ahead of forecast
2) No increase in '08 '09 forecasts at this point(so room for further upgrades)
3) '08 written premiums to be flat whereas sector -6%
4) synergies now at least $125m, upped from at least $70m and then at least $100m
5) sub-prime dealt with and no significant exposure to D&O. (negligence cases arising from sub-prime)

[miamisteve] 06/3/2008 08:03

Home run - Cost savings from 2008 onwards will be in excess of $125m.

Original estimate at the time of the takeover was for $70m.

$55m more to profits is a huge number for a company of this sort of market cap.

[alfred] 01/2/2008 21:36

I must be missing something here:

Minimal exposure to sub prime - either through underwriting or investment portfolio.

Benign season for catastrophe losses.

Wellington cost savings coming through as promised

Might be some softening of underwriting premiums, but nothing drastic.So what's the problem?

[miamisteve] 24/1/2008 06:53

Added a further 50,000 shares at 310p. Should see another 15p today after the US governments decision yesterday to support guaranteed bonds.

[miamisteve] 19/12/2007 12:10

A common sense rally?

L2 looking very strong now.

[miamisteve] 14/12/2007 08:48

Good to see the CFO joining me and putting his hand in his pocket.

Added just over 50,000 shares the last 2 days. Originally takeover was earmarked to result in $70m in cost savings. That was upped to at least $100m, with UBS now estimating $120m.

Because of fears over sub-prime exposure (now written off) and merger integration uncertainty these have been the worst performing insurer on the LSE this year. Despite the fact that they are one of the only ones that are forecasting eps growth thanks to the takeover synergies.

pe x5, yield 6.5%, conservative growth forecasts. This is my stock pick for 2008.

[washboa] 28/11/2007 08:47

probably easier money just shorting everything though!

[washboa] 28/11/2007 07:50

nice statement, this a very cheap share pulled down by a bleak market.

[miamisteve] 28/11/2007 07:22

There's the logic the share price falls $500m us because of a $75m write off. There's no further bad news on this front because the total investments with subprime exposure are $85m.

Current trading is very strong and synergy savings from the merger are going to come well ahead of target.

Should recover from today.

[jimmy c] 21/11/2007 22:23

this has come onto my 'pe below 5' list, waiting to enter here.

[liquidkid] 21/11/2007 12:15

The usual stupid question should be asked here... Why the drop?

[miamisteve] 20/11/2007 12:13

Couldn't resist a top up 10,000 shares. div yield 6%, p/e x 5

[cb7] 01/10/2007 15:46

the hurricane season has just about passed with nothing major, so claims look like being low this year.

[liquidkid] 27/9/2007 13:25

There should be some kind of bounce here, insurance rates are softening industry wide but its not going to be profits warnings kind of levels

[miamisteve] 10/8/2007 14:34

It's purely sentiment. These are imo a safe backbone to any portfolio. Bond yields are at record highs so the investment income will be healthy.

Dividend yield is approaching 7%.

[irenekent] 09/8/2007 08:51

These are really plunging -anybody know of a specific cause?

[yf23_1] 26/7/2007 14:54

Probably their bond holdings.
They do have some mortgage backed securities but mostly AAA.
The AAA could have some CDO in it but its not indicated in their report.

[miamisteve] 26/7/2007 12:20

Clueless why this is dropping like a stone.

L2 very weak at the moment as well.

[handycam] 16/7/2007 16:56

'Tis human nature which is strange.

[tboulton] 04/7/2007 09:51

I agree - I don't think it is the floods - the shares I think were going down before that, nor the Bonds. Investing is a strange business!! As I mentioned, I am also looking at BRIT Insurance. Per FT Broker consensus out of 5 where 3 is hold: Catlin 1.85, BRIT 3.36! Investors Chronicle: Last 4 Brokers recommendations since April: Catlin 4 Buys (2 upgrades), BRIT 4 underperform/hold (all downgrades)! Yet BRIT is outperforming Catlin during this period! Looking at the charts, MACD and RSI, Catlin has been in a serious oversold position but the MACD has now turned up and indicates a Buy - but it no guarantee that it may not go down! .. especially as we are not sure of the reasons for the downward trend although it has now turned up. The trading volumes are pretty normal apart from a couple of massive spikes in Mar/Apr which must have been Kelly selling out as an ex-director. I am equally baffled as to why BRIT are going up so strongly versus Catlin, given the Brokers recommendations mentioned above! As I said, investing is a strange business!

[yf23_1] 03/7/2007 22:57

I wonder if it was marked down on possible flood damage costs, but as far as I can see they dont insure UK flooding.
Their bond holdings arent large either so it couldnt be the spread widening.

[eddiespotter] 03/7/2007 15:16

Strange. The bit of mi portfolio marked CGL just went all a strange blue colour!!

[tboulton] 28/6/2007 09:56

All a bit of a puzzle! Brit Insurance has had a load of Broker downgrades and Catlin good reviews and upgrades. Yet Catlin are diving whereas Brit are doing better! I note that ex-director Jonathan Kelley has off loaded several million shares but that was in April. Maybe, if he is no longer a Director he is still off loading but they are no longer being reported. Numis on 27th June upgraded Catlin to Buy, so presumably they see no dangers. I want to switch from Brit to more Catlin but I am nervous! Does anyone else have any explanations for the dramatic drop?