Castelnau Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 18/11/2010 14:33

No strength here but cant really work out why.
I took some at 328 not that long ago so am still above water but not by anywhere near as much as I imagined I would be by now!

[q4z] 18/11/2010 10:59

Bid or not - and I would say no bid, if this is an attempted short and the markets remain strong overnight we could see a squeeze before tomorrow's close.

[hooley] 18/11/2010 08:27

I should know, I was an analyst for 30 years before I retired. The guys who recommend these shares will have done their homework.

[thamestrader] 17/11/2010 19:55

If every share that brokers rated a buy really was a buy, the FTSE would be over 20000 by now.

[hooley] 17/11/2010 19:17

5 out of 6 investment analysts rate this as a buy. Nobody seems to take their recommendations seriously. Weird or what?

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 17/11/2010 16:22

i think so.

i cant see why thids is valued so low comp to peers?

[joesoap3] 17/11/2010 15:59

Am I missing something here or is this really on a p/e of less than 4, yielding 7.25% with an increased interim, good interim results, and yet is falling steadily over the last few days?

[hooley] 15/11/2010 09:14

Tarvold: Thanks for the info. So a special is out, but the yield of 7%, covered almost 5x, will suffice.

[tarvold] 15/11/2010 07:21

A lot, haven't you been following the latest on the expected 2012 liquidity regulations?
This is why LLOY is now not expected to pay a dividend for another 2-3 years instead of next year.

[hooley] 14/11/2010 16:06

Tarvold: Lancashire declared its 125p special divi on 5/11/09 and paid it on 6/1/10. Has so much changed since that time?

[tarvold] 14/11/2010 12:20

No insurance company is going to pay out a special dividend while the solvency requirements of insurance companies and banks is still up for debate.

[hooley] 14/11/2010 08:38

Unlike Lancashire, this company hasn't paid a special. Who knows, the b/s and cash flow could afford it - perhaps 50p a share?

[boadicea] 13/11/2010 22:53

According to advfn -
"Net Tangible Asset Value PS = 441.02 p
Net Asset Value PS = 564.71p"

These figures are, I think, based on the last AR (March) and will need adjusting for subsequent events but they give a rough idea. If the adjustment is upwards, then 500p is possibly not far out.

The company has recently reported -
"26 per cent increase in net tangible assets per share in sterling over past 12 months;
14 per cent increase in net tangible assets per share in US dollars "
...and...
"Net tangible assets per share GBP3.88
Book value per share .... GBP5.09 "

I don't know if the NTA reported by advfn is based on the same definition as used by CGL or whether it is more like the 'Book value'.

However, I would not expect any acceptable take-over to be for significantly less than the 'Book value'.

[1fox1] 13/11/2010 15:37

lol, thanks for your contribution, but who are British Insurance?

Assuming you mean BRE, which got taken out for 1xNTAV, on what basis do you think that CGL shares are worth £5 in an acquisition?

[hooley] 11/11/2010 14:25

Based on the take-out price of British Insurance, Catlin would exit at 500p. In the meantime, the dividend yield is about 7% - rather better than the 2.5% on my Lloyds account. Riskier, but a worthwhile repository for as long as it takes.

[evox] 29/10/2010 11:35

thanks Knowing. interesting article.

[effortless cool] 27/10/2010 11:10

Agreed, but whole sector (bar AML) is depressed. The market is soft and softening further. Lucky hurricane season will boost results this year but that is likely to lead to even weaker rates next year.

[augustus1] 27/10/2010 10:52

EC, yes I agree , so not really one to include. That said CGL seems undervalued.

[effortless cool] 27/10/2010 10:22

Jardine's is a broker and not remotely comparable.

Best comparatives are HSX, BEZ, CHU.

[augustus1] 27/10/2010 09:44

I would tend to agree that it is undervalued. Comparable companies are Jardines and Hiscox with fairly similar capitalisations.
Jardine : pe 17.5 Hiscox pe 4.7 compare to Catlin's 3.66
eps 33.3/75.2/95.9
div % 3.6/4.25/7.13
div cover 1.59/5.01/3.76
Hard to see why they are "priced" so low as there has not been any bad news issued.
Up yesterday and today, but maybe only due to speculation rather than fundamentals?

[tarvold] 27/10/2010 00:46

Exactly an analyst has just looked at the forecasts for CGL and come to the conclusion that it is undervalued compared to peers and therefore COULD be a potential takeover target.

You could come to the same conclusion about AV. if it wasn't so big.

[evox] 26/10/2010 15:25

This was the Telegraph piece from yesterday:
Lloyd's of London insurer Catlin Group shed 1.1 to 341½p despite the fact that Collins Stewart tipped the company as a takeover target. The shares trade at an unwarranted discount to peers, pointed out Ben Cohen, an analyst at the broker. He concluded that: "if the valuation disparity persists, we think Catlin would be of interest to private equity or a trade buyer, likely from outside the London market."

[spittingbarrel] 26/10/2010 14:00

Many thanks Ursus and Tarvold

[tarvold] 26/10/2010 11:58

Mentioned on FT Alphaville yesterday as well, but seems that bid rumours are purely on the back of other consolidations in the insurance sector.