Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[casholaa] 20/12/2023 13:16

Ahhhh well, let's hope covid and all that followed reminded people how nice it is to give a card.

[seroserio] 20/12/2023 12:50

It hit 120 (on the way down) just under 4 years ago.

[caveater] 20/12/2023 11:01

116 been its highest this year?

[amelio] 19/12/2023 21:56

Chart shaping up lovely again and looks set to test 120 again over the coming days.

[trytime] 19/12/2023 18:59

I was in Card Shop in Blanchardstown, Dublin several times over the last 2 weeks and with the place full to the brim I can see the record take for the shop broken again with over 1.5m Euros again being reached.

[makinbuks] 19/12/2023 17:26

Yes, well remembered and the others are South Africa and Dubai I think

[bbonsall] 19/12/2023 17:25

Cashola

“28 Feb 2019 — Card Factory is expanding overseas with the opening of concessions within The Reject Shop, a discount retail chain in Australia.”

[caveater] 19/12/2023 17:12

Very little mentioned of our exploits abroad.....where exactly was it again...not Gaza I hope!

[casholaa] 19/12/2023 15:52

I think the business abroad is what is holding the share price back. Not sure why they didn't try for Australia instead.

hxxps://www.insidermedia.com/news/yorkshire/card-factory-snaps-up-south-african-business

[s34icknote] 19/12/2023 15:40

Busy shops Think this will out perform Works not so sure they seam quieter at the tills .

[s34icknote] 19/12/2023 15:39

Heading to high of the year !!

[harry_david] 18/12/2023 14:40

Thanks darrin. Am of course very happy with CF so far

[pnetol] 18/12/2023 14:36

I would much rather have that than be like WRKS with very few people in the store . I've been in a local Card Factory store and one in the centre on London recently and they have both had regular and good "footfall" . They are also in Matslan this year and they have "click and collect " available in all stores, I'm sure that is making a difference. In the same local town 15 people in CARD , approx 200m away 2 people in Clinton Cards

[darrin1471] 18/12/2023 14:22

harry_david. Margins are so big on cards anybody who has the space for them are selling them already. You do need space to make a decent display. Cards are not a growing market so any new entrant has to think they can take market share from CF which is a hard investment case to make.
I would be a buyer in CF over the medium term.

[darrin1471] 18/12/2023 14:11

Christmas card sales fall off rapidly from mid December. If you buy boxes of cards, the buyer needs time to write and post them. Individual Christmas cards sell up to Christmas eve as does wrapping paper. Christmas decorations sales dry up after the 1st week in December (not CF relevant).
The last week before Christmas you clear the top shelves of stock and spread it to fill the gaps.
The stock being delivered into stores this week will be sale stock specials for post Christmas.

[weaverbeever] 18/12/2023 13:43

Just popped into card factory in an out of town retail park. Packed. Lots being bought. Only concern is many of the shelves are empty. Sold out. Not restocking fast enough. This was the case in another I visited a few weeks back. Lots of empty shelves.

[miti 1000] 18/12/2023 06:48

AISHAH, you need to do more work than that. Look for the volumes on Telios prior and how many were traded till 25/9 work out how much they are selling. If you look at the volumes traded since 25/9 , you can closely guesstimate how much they have left rather than making throwaway remarks. You can quote me on those timelines by mid January.

[harry_david] 17/12/2023 23:01

darrin there is compelling evidence to support your suggestion of lower retail footfall in Sept and particularly in Oct and recent comments imply a slow start to Christmas elsewhere. Card have sofar stood out partly I think due to their pricing freedom and therefore in the short run I expect profits to outperform other retailers. As quite a large shareholder my concern is longer term, price increases can invite competition.

[aishah] 17/12/2023 18:58

As at 25 Sep Telios had 40m left

Haven't checked if they've reduced further since.

CF ADV is 1m approx. So a long way to go if Telios are going to deplete completely.

[bbonsall] 17/12/2023 18:37

miti

I agree with all you say. I cannot see the logic of some who fear a bad Christmas for CF. The doomsayers quote cost of living crisis as their main fear.
However, last year inflation was over 10%, fuel prices were going through the roof, the postal workers were on strike and still CF INCREASED its guidance in November and again in January.
Circumstances are better than last year.

[miti 1000] 17/12/2023 15:27

AISHAH , the overhang has been huge. Its hard to place that many shares in a small cap. Now, the holding is at lower levels , it should happen pretty soon with some big volumes and an RNS saying Telios are below 3% or out totally hopefully in early-mid Jan. That would boost the shares hugely imo even with just an 'inline' statement.

[aishah] 17/12/2023 15:21

The house broker should make an effort to place the overhang. Perhaps they have but no IIs have shown interest. By all accounts CF are very busy as evidenced by many on here.

[miti 1000] 17/12/2023 15:07

darrin1471 , I honestly can't see why you would worry about a profit warning. My only worry here would be if they came inline . The comparatives to last years suggest they should raise guidance imo in January despite not doing so in November.

The fact is they had a huge seller who continues to want to get rid of his once 20% stake in the last 6 months . That' s a huge overhang of shares. By my calculations , Telios should have sold out by mid-January latest and hopefully the last lot will get taken out in 1 go before then. I would expect Stuart Middleton's stake to be gone as well.

The company would have been well aware of these overhangs and I'm sure what would have felt it prudent not to come out with a t's until they were out of the market rather than sell into to.

Anyway, aside from the sellers , the main game is will they raise or not. 'May' warn , as you put it, no chance imo. I'm expecting and am positioned for a big beat.

As for their margins, they look fine. Anecdotal evidence suggests their stores are busy enough to be one of the winners with the removed competition imo.

[darrin1471] 17/12/2023 09:53

Lower margin gifts are extra revenue on top of the card and celebration sales.

[magnets] 16/12/2023 19:05

CF have been increasing the revenue share of gifts the last couple of years which makes them more exposed to risks of people cutting back