Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 30/12/2021 08:24

Lots of little trades holding this back ??

[s34icknote] 29/12/2021 14:30

60p still on !!

[s34icknote] 29/12/2021 12:21

Looks like breaking 60p !

[roxburyhouse] 26/12/2021 23:39



Just sharing my thoughts:-

RNS Number : 1977X 30 April 2021

“The Company has agreed headline terms for refinancing of the Group with its current syndicate of commercial lending banks. ”

;

RNS Number : 3663Z 21 May 2021

“Subject to prevailing market conditions and upon taking independent advice, the Company intends to use its best efforts to raise net equity proceeds of £70m to facilitate these prepayments. The Company is also permitted, under the terms of the facilities, to prepay £70m using funding from other subordinated sources.”̷2;


Share price peaked at 95p after the release of the first RNS above when all 1000+ shops opened and then dropped to low 60’s after the second one. 



So back in May 2021 and fresh out of Lockdown the share price dropped for 3 reasons:-
R32;

1 Possibility of Shares being Diluted.

2 More possible lockdowns.

3 £70m debt repayment with tight timescales.



Fast forward to now Dec 2021. 


Predicted Lockdowns didn’t happen. (Ok still could but not in the busiest Xmas period).



8 full months of trading has meant that the £70m part of the debt has reduced significantly. (£48m after the second payment is made next week). 



As a result of the above the Bod are now in a much stronger position to refinance (if they want to) but go back and read the first RNS above and note “headline terms” - in my book that means they got a good deal so why would they?



There’s only one reason and that’s because a condition was added stating that no dividends will be paid until BOTH the Term Loan and CLBILS facilities have been paid off in full ie £125m.

Theoretically it could be possible (but difficult) for CARD to pay back the agreed £70m part of the debt by July 31st 2022 with profits but another £55m would take another year so July 31st 2023. 



But if they refinance (with better terms) in January then they could reinstate the dividends immediately.

If this happens and no further lockdowns have been announced then the Share price would immediately re rate (IMO) to £1+

They could then announce a RI with all the proceeds going towards On line and Website Development NOT debt repayment. 



Regardless what happens next and whichever way you look at it there is no denying that the Card Factory is in much better shape now than it was 9 months ago when the share price was 90p+.

[s34icknote] 23/12/2021 09:35

So a two to three week opening !May be a new year tip in the papers to boost a rerate !!

[beachbum1978] 23/12/2021 08:57

It's around mid January, all the previous ones have been. Anything between the 10th & 17th is my guess. Get your orders in quick guys!!

[s34icknote] 23/12/2021 08:22

When's the trading update in January ??

[yf23_1] 22/12/2021 22:59

doubled my holding today

[salamander69] 22/12/2021 21:07

Ignore sorry - wrong company!

[hardupfedup] 22/12/2021 09:29

breaking...

[simmsc] 20/12/2021 20:17

I was thinking exactly the same. There is no logic to this, apart from human fear and derisking (or maybe market makers pulling the catapult back again).

[tradertrev] 20/12/2021 19:52

Seems a bit daft for this to sell off now in relation to a possible lockdown - they must have already done at least 90% of their Christmas trade by now so from here it's quiet until Valentine's day whatever Covid does.

[scobak] 20/12/2021 19:46

North Yorkshire shops busy over weekend and today. Looking good.

[ken chung] 20/12/2021 08:52

Dropping like a stone.Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[bbonsall] 11/12/2021 12:27

My local town has two shops. Yesterday, both were crowded with queues at the checkout.
A different company’s shop was quiet.

[bountyhunter] 08/12/2021 20:21

Bought a selection of cards today from a CardFactory shop. It was fairly busy although a relatively quiet time of day, pretty much back to normal pre-pandemic Xmas trading levels I would say. More birthday cards available than usual for this time of year which was a welcome surprise. Maybe they have cut back on the Xmas range as they know most would like to choose more quickly given the circumstances. Plenty of bargain boxes of single design Xmas cards which made selection easy. I certainly didn't hang around as long as usual making my choices. The door was open as well providing good ventilation.

[roxburyhouse] 07/12/2021 14:17

Not sure how many people here read the Lse board so thought I would copy this post over here:-

I can’t tell you how excited I am about this share and I can’t be the only one.

Does anybody else feel the same or is it just me? Lol.

Back in April when all 1019 shops finally re-opened after the 3 lockdowns totalling 5months nobody knew what was going to happen next. What they did know though was that the next 8 months were crucial.

The Bod put together all sorts of worst case scenarios and remortgaged the house in case any of them came true. The share price then dropped to reflect on this precarious position.

The good news is that today is day 215 of 240 covering the 8 month crucial period from April.

215 days of all 1019 shops covering the whole of the UK fully open. Think about it.

Wow.

That’s something to celebrate and the share price of 52p does not reflect this achievement and is crazy!

If these shops stay open and there is every indication that they are going to then I’m expecting my investment here to double by early next year - April.

[roxburyhouse] 06/12/2021 22:52

Hi Wiseman- No way, I was glad to be out tbh. From the moment I bought them they went down but in the end made a slight gain. I was ‘all in’ AML for about 9 months and sold them (for the AA) just before they went from 50p to £1.
Im not making the same mistake here.

[wiseman1967] 06/12/2021 22:26

Simmsc - you don't need to disclose a position under 3% (unless it is being taken over when the threshold falls to 1%). This means nobody (other than Wellcome Trust) knows how much they had before they had to disclose the 3%+ stake.

[wiseman1967] 06/12/2021 22:23

RH - good to hear. Did you roll any of your AA holding into the PE deal? I also have a material stake in CF and have faith in it over the medium/long term.

[simmsc] 06/12/2021 22:09

Stocko shows that on 12th Nov the position was increased by 10.7m shares (and their total position is 10.7m).

[kaos3] 06/12/2021 19:03

thnx RH - good to know

[roxburyhouse] 06/12/2021 18:28

Thanks Wiseman I like things to make sense and that now does. I’m ‘all in’ here just like I was with the AA but have a better feeling about Card. Being retired and so heavily invested I “secret shop” a good selection of the stores here in the North East and with the exception of 1 store I am really really impressed with not only the number of Customers in the stores but also the basket size. The Metro Centre yesterday and the Galleries today were both the busiest I have ever seen them. Everyday several million £ being added to the Card Factory’s coffers with no lockdowns in site.
January’s results are going to knock this share price out of the park IMO.

[wiseman1967] 06/12/2021 17:38

They only have to disclose once they cross a threshold - in this case 3%. They may have had 2.99% for a long time and then a relatively small purchase of 0.15% caused them to cross the disclosure level.