Buyers in this morning ! |
Seems perky this morning. |
GB, the hedge is from the last quarter of 2021 if that helps imo. Can't see a hedge being achieved after that time that is considerably less. Wouldn't make sense to me. |
Also, we just traded three-four months without said hedge and results came in fine. |
 CB, as far as I was aware the costs are not significantly ahead of where they were then in terms of being able to make an impact so I don't think it is a big risk. They may be more expensive, but I don't think it will be a big hit. The stores don't appear energy-intensive either. I don't know about the manufacturing side. It would be interesting if you have any calculation on it? From memory, not much detail is given.
I guess RR could come back and raise CT or something else but nothing.
Volsung, well, it depends if you look at it as a business it's great, but if you are trying to guess what other people are going to do in the next 6 months then I would have to say I think that's a mug's game. You might get one or two right more often than you get them wrong.
Things that don't make sense can go on for a long time. Look at Tesla. It trades on a pe in the hundreds, has declining sales, declining profits, more competition, aging models and a brand that is being destroyed, but that is an exceptional case. The guy who owns it just uses it as a piggy bank and comes up with some magical poo. I think the last poo was that they were now going to do robots. From what I have seen and learnt, their robots are about as advanced as some of the primitives about 20 years ago.
Sorry for the digression. |
Minervini would say, even if fundamentals are great, only the price action is the most telling |
Thanks Juliet. I was more wondering whether there was some 'binary' type risk which could cause a big hit if it manifested.One other cost which doesn't seem to have had much airing comes from the last results, just a small mention but could have a big impact - their energy price hedge came to an end last October. Depends how long they had it in place, but if it was from 2021 or earlier clearly their energy costs could have doubled. |
Just to chime in, we should be at 1.40 at least assuming 0 growth for next year imo. There could be more on top of that, and I expect management to deliver, but I just wanted to highlight what I believe to be the gap.
I ask myself was this overvalued last year when it hit the high of 1.43 and I always come to the answer no. |
CB, now that is a difficult one. I pour over the risks frequently, and the absence of any significant ones combined with the large undervaluation is what draws me to keep a lot of my money here and add more. I get the feeling the price is languishing because of general attitudes and a 'once bitten, twice shy' feeling among those who piled in immediately prior to last year's interim results. That and perhaps we need a big investor to show interest, and that is what started the climb up to fair value last year, but this is the gift that keeps giving in terms of price.
Obviously, the 10% tariff on all Chinese imports into America is a risk to the US expansion, but the supply chain is diversified enough to source the products from other markets as well from the company's own supply bases. I doubt this is actually a significant risk, though.
The 14m increase in costs due to the budget should mostly be offset by the cost-savings from last year, but there will still be a little ground to make up to maintain the margin, and I have a feeling it will probably nudge up between 0.5-1%. Management achieved significant cost-savings last year without using the sledge-hammer that is pricing, with price increases only accounting for a small fraction of the total and management stressing the importance of not taking 'the easy way'. This is important as the value proposition is part of CF's identity and attraction.
Inflation is not a significant risk when considered at the consumer-level. Wages continue to outstrip inflation, and the parts of the general measure that are increasing are not severely affecting the CF shopper. As always, though, you want to keep an eye on it, but if it gets to the point where it is affecting CF negatively, then the impact will be felt almost everywhere.
Hope this helps. :) |
LTHs - are there any obvious significant risks to the company, this side of the results announcement? Thanks for any views. |
Just pleased we seem to have stabilised at mid/low 90s and 80s are behind us. Still hate the scarcity of communication of our board. We should be getting regular reviews of what’s going on especially our oversees interests. |
Crazy that we still languish at below a quid! |
14 Jan 2025
Outlook
· The Board expects to deliver FY25 adjusted profit before tax (excluding one-off items) in line with current market expectations, reflecting robust revenue growth and the benefits of our previously announced productivity and efficiency programme.
· The changes to National Living Wage and Employer National Insurance Contributions will result in annual cost inflation of c.£14 million in FY26. We expect to offset this through our proven approach which includes our ongoing productivity and efficiency programme, as well as range development and pricing, while continuing to invest in our future growth. Despite these inflationary pressures, we currently expect to deliver a mid-to-high single digit percentage increase in adjusted profit before tax in FY26.
· We will provide a further update on our strategic and financial progress at our Preliminary Results on 7th May 2025. |
I bought some chocolate and a couple of cakes but she didn't like them so I had to eat both! The chocolate was acceptable though :) No card but they are still in vogue certainly for the younger generation. If we get some news on the US arrangement that could really move things here. |
The chocolates not the card obvs |
There was loads of peeps in Card on Valentines Day
I bought my wife a card and a box of Thorntons of which I have now eaten half |
A golden cross could be on the cards?
(see header chart) |
It's not glamorous and the market is fickle. |
Could be retail out of favour compounded by Reeves from PR! - |
Hard to work this one out... The value proposition for a 50-100% rise seems compelling, but it's still in the 90s... Is there a big seller? Is there something the market is unaware of? Eg. cheap utility bill hedge coming to an end last October? |
Long wait till results ! |
I would guess nobody knows what they paid last time for a card. Surely the selling point is that its not £2.75 a pop.
As long as Card maintain their perceived position and their market segment, a few pence is neither here nor there for customers. It would be interesting to see a profile of the average Card customer. |
Well I'm not doing my bit for sales, as we agreed to make handmade cards this year... I'm afraid CARD is doomed. |
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