Beginning to edge up after what has been a fairly brutal re-trace.
Would not be at all surprised if C...ney Rebel has started to buy again. |
The last few sessions have been bloody for us Carclo fans, but I have the feeling that we might just close up on the day today ! |
"I'm entitled to my opinion and entitled to post it here." But your opinion is repeatedly misleading. You did not call the shares down from 40p as you suggested earlier, but have been negative on the shares from well before then. And any objective assessment of the share performance might note that Carclo was one of the very top performers of 2024. Yet you didn't "make a bean" on it, and still believe you are calling everything right. Perhaps if you didn't bound in here shouting your negative "opinions" at people who HAVE called it correctly (opinions which have now been corrected on multiple occasions) then people might have more time for your view. Happy new year. |
valueinvturn
I think I'm right in saying CAR has a property portfolio valued at about £23m, presumably freehold and there may be substantial unrealised value in this if they are freehold. However, if they arrange a sale and leaseback of these properties to pay down debt they will then have another liability on top of the pension fund deficit payments which will be a drain on cash as much as the debt interest is.
Ultimately, I believe if there is upside in these shares it is all in the property and not the prospects for trading. |
I'm not trying to present myself as some sort of guru, anymore than you are, I just don't believe the shares are cheap and think from this price there is more downside than up.
I'm entitled to my opinion and entitled to post it here. |
Go fishing for minnows, don't expect whales. |
"There are certainly risks....." This last sentence sums up the situation perfectly. |
Hi mesquida. Yes it comes as no surprise to find someone like Lame Stocks trying to reinvent history to portray himself as some sort of guru. There are certainly risks with Carclo as we have all identified in the past, but it is about whether the potential upside is sufficiently large to make the risk worth taking. |
Wigwammer, i have so enjoyed this last post of yours, keep up the good work ! |
"I've watched these all the way from 40p to 23p." Another poor piece of research. Your negative comments started in mid July when the shares were in the low 20's. So you have have watched the shares nearly double since your negativity started, and simply fall back toward where they were. Thank goodness you didn't arrive with your consensual negativity a few months earlier when the shares were sub 10p. We had other detractors then, but they have gone rather quiet :) |
Arthur what did you mean in your previous message when you wrote that carclo has a property portfolio |
wigwammer
'We can all “wait and see” of course, but commentators don’t make much return I’m afraid.'
I've watched these all the way from 40p to 23p. |
One thing CAR does appear to have in its favour is a large property portfolio. |
i just wonder why the company could not have provided this cogent information provided by 0ur studious investors here |
Wigwammer totally agree with your approach. Always I try to evaluate a Company in terms of EV/FCF multiple. Where in EV I put Total debt / pension liabilities /equity and cash. In the FCF I put the cash generates from operating actvities less outflow due to capex. So for carclo We Will have a compounding effect in the next future because It Will increase FCF and It Will repay debts and pension liabilities |
Yes. But like many of the things you "believe" - they appear dispelled after a small amount of research, at which point you just invent another negative. I do not believe Carclo are making £7m pa free cash flow either, but I do believe they are generating enough to repay both the interest and part of the principal on their liabilities. I also believe they are on the right track to see a further upward step, and a valuation that doesn't reflect that potential. We can all "wait and see" of course, but commentators don't make much return I'm afraid. |
Incidentally I don't believe the company is generating £7m in free cash flow, or any positive cashflow at the moment. Whether that changes remains to be seen. |
Well put, tradertrev. Yes - the deficit can effectively be seen as very long dated debt, comparable if not preferable to the sort/scale used by private equity. And when the equity value is a slither of the enterprise value - as is the case here - great things can happen if the company can organically get their liabilities down. The optionality here was fantastic value at sub 10p, but even after the move we have seen appears highly attractive imo. GLA |
That would be fine, if there was any net income, which currently there's not. |
Lame stocks. Deficit repayments should not be deducted from net income/free cash flow, any more than debt repayments should be deducted from net income/free cash flow. Is this not a fact? And as free cash flow is used to repay deficit and debt commitments, an increasingly large proportion of the enterprise value belongs to the equity holders, which typically results in a rising share price. So when you claim "large cash payments are going to repay the pension deficit" - what you are actually stating is that free cash flow is being spent making the equity more valuable. Well exactly. Hope that helps. |
wigwammer
They have to pay the pension deficit reduction payments out of cash, that is a fact. |
That's also my understanding, valueinvturn. A key part of the recovery strategy is getting asset turn higher by making better use of the excess equipment they already have. I would also point out that repaying liabilities out of free cash - such as the pension deficit - does not constitute an operating cost, and should not be deducted from net income or free cash flow when considering valuation (but that seems to be what some want to do). ATB |
17m market cap for a business generating 7m in free cashflow is too low. Very little of their plants are based here in the U.K. so their exposure to National Insurance increases in April is limited. |
Arthur about investment, having carclo spare capacity I don't think they have to spend a lot of Money for capex in the next future for this reasons they can manage any financial problem and avoid issue of capital |
Hi valueinvturn
I've just checked and you are correct, life expectancy has been reducing, although CAR's are not particularly conservative still, but maybe more realistic than I first thought.
You may have a fair point about investment, however at some point they will have to start replacing worn out plant, the question is can they improve the financial position enough before this is necessary. On that one I'm not sure. |
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