Celadon Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[czar] 30/3/2023 14:20

V big upside imho

[someuwin] 30/3/2023 13:23

No buy quote again.

[saint in exile] 29/3/2023 12:34

Not much buzz about this share surprisingly.Is there a Telegram group?

[someuwin] 29/3/2023 12:13

Will put better charts in later.

[someuwin] 29/3/2023 12:12

Excellent Celadon CEO interview

[czar] 19/3/2023 16:34

I have underestimated James Short's ambition. His first target is £90m of sales and £50m profits. On a high teens multiple that would value CEL at circa £15 a share. However that would not scratch the UK demand. He has deals in train to acquire more properties quickly to expand production 20 fold. That would value CEL at many billions but I suspect they will be bid for long before then.

[parob] 17/3/2023 07:51

hTTps://total-market-solutions.com/2023/03/seed-innovations-ltd-march-2023/

[czar] 16/3/2023 10:01

There clearly are very few private investors involved in CEL, several are using this thread to promote other stocks but none of these have the Home Office Licence. The truth is only a handful of companies worldwide can supply medical-grade cannabis to the pharmaceutical industry, this is an extremely valuable Company IMHO. Celadon will almost certainly receive a take over approach, its a question of WHEN not IF. The big question is at what level a bid will come in at and what would the management accept? GW Pharma gives a great clue as to the sort of number we can expect.

" -- Receipt of updated Home Office licence enables Celadon to commence the commercial supply of its GMP pharmaceutical cannabis product

-- GMP registration is understood to be the first such registration of a UK pharmaceutical facility for high THC cannabis active pharmaceutical ingredient ("API") since the legalisation of medical cannabis in 2018

-- GMP registration and a Home Office licence are required in order to sell high-THC medicinal cannabis in the UK

-- Celadon becomes one of a small number of companies globally with the capability to produce an EU-GMP grade high-THC cannabinoid API"

[parob] 15/3/2023 08:34

SEED also worth a look.

[czar] 14/3/2023 16:29

This is the start of a big rerating. Should go to £15 over the next year unless a GW style bid comes in then it’s anybody’s guess.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:15

James - HELD needs to be HELD. Lock them away for 12 - 24 months and if they can prove they are operationally competent the rewards COULD be considerable.

As for CEL, if I was on the BOD I would be arranging a fundraise.

UK labour. UK water. And UK energy isn't going to be cheap.

HELD's facility in northern Greece should prove strategically superior on the cost perspective....with just about the lowest cost of labour, water and energy in Europe.

Further, their cultivation license is enormous (one of the largest ever granted) and runs to a staggering 54,000 kg of dried flower a year, when fully maxed out in P3.

Compare that to CEL's facility.

ADYOR.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:11

ridingthewaves1 - there was a big volume spike here even when CEL was flatlining before the uplift. I agree the rise we've seen ahead of the announcement smacks of the leak of privileged information - just my opinion only.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:42

Some thoughts on CEL and HELD (from the HELD thread) below.

(Don't forget CEL possibly need a cash injection so don't get greedy on the spike!)


Oakridge14 Mar '23 - 15:20 - 480 of 481 Edit
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News out at CEL.

Great news for the cannabis space.

What we can say is that CEL, or, those involved in the work around this RNS = a leaky ship! Including that big volume spike / buy a few weeks ago. Naughty!


Oakridge14 Mar '23 - 15:40 - 481 of 481 Edit
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It's important to watch the reaction at CEL, and particularly the rocket that has been put under the companies share price over recent days.

The home office has now extended their license so that they can enter into commercial (non research) agreements to sell a high THC content product to third parties and are the first UK based pharmaceutical facility / cultivators in the UK to do this.

They say:

"Within the UK, patients prescribed medicinal cannabis are reliant on imported product, often facing lengthy delays and high costs, and by becoming a UK-based producer, Celadon is in a prime position to alleviate the issues currently faced by patients."

Well, it's going to be interesting to see what price-point CEL can come in at and maintain. They've already announced that expansion into their second growing room had to delayed this year by spiralling costs we have all grown so familiar with.

Their facilities are, I think, only around 10% of HELD's entire license. I'll check on that.

So, whilst they may be first over the line and should be congratulated, the scale of their operations, at present, is a fraction of what HELD have been granted in Greece. CEL are also operating from a country with considerably higher costs.

Current mkt cap: £265M

HELD: c.£11M.

HELD still have work to do, but should, all being well, be rubber stamped and selling product at around the end of Q2.

AIMO ADYOR

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:19

Great news for the cannabis space.

Congrats on the license expansion.

2023 is the year.

Hellenic (HELD) next imho! Watch this space.

[jasko] 14/3/2023 15:12

Back up to IPO price...and hopefully beyond

[jasko] 14/3/2023 15:09

Woohoo the time is now

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 09:05

The rise has been on fairly light volume czar....but then CEL has relatively few shares in issue. There could be any number of reasons why this has rallied recently. Several other cannabis stocks are coming off oversold lows (they all faced a woeful 2022 - a 'hangover' if you like - after all the initial (and slightly premature) enthusiasm of the sector in the previous year(s).

Re. CEL specifically, there could be upcoming clinical findings to report, expansion to their license, or perhaps another raise on the way (check their cash balance and burn rates).

Hellenic Dynamics (HELD) will be moving up at some point imho. As a wholesaler to licensed distributors, they have already signed term sheets into the German market with first sales anticipated in late Q2. Unlike CEL and other UK firms such as Ananda, HELD's license is to grow for the purposes of full commercial sales....not just research. It also has amongst the largest license ever granted in Europe.....growing out of an ex UN facility in Northern Greece, with a compelling cost-base.

They have taken on ex Avida Global staff.....who have done it all before in latin America.

It's a company to watch in 2023 - 2024 imo.

NAI and ADYOR.

[czar] 13/3/2023 14:07

Its good to see an unloved stock up again in a weak market but I can't find any explanation for the strong move. CEL is still well under the placing price of 165p. Something is attracting buyers. GW Pharma is the only direct comparison and they got bought for £7.2b a couple of years ago. CEL mentioned they hope to get Home Office approval this quarter so that may be it or could it be a US bidder? Either way this is still a strong BUY IMHO with a low ball target of £10 a share in my book.

Anyone heard anything?

[oakridge] 10/3/2023 16:23

Welcome to all those looking in on CEL.

When you are researching this company over the weekend, get HELD on your watchlists / monitors for what could be an interesting 2023 ahead imho.

HELD:

Currently 0.09p to buy

* c.10M mkt cap
* one of the largest cultivation licenses granted in Europe
* Cash runway at least to first harvest/sales (anticipated late Q2)
* Term sheets already signed into the German mkt
* Based in northern Greece = one of the lowest cost base of production
* Key staff brought in with proven track record of creating a major cultivation firm ie Industry Expert Carl Haffner, founder and COO of Avida Global and ex CEO of Avida Global SAS

Davinder Rai, CEO of Hellenic Dynamics, commented:

"As a seasoned medical cannabis industry expert I am delighted that Carl has joined our team. Having previously successfully established an EU-GMP cultivation facility, his appointment will provide additional support to ensure our targets are met."

Carl Haffner, commented:

"I am delighted to become part of the Hellenic Dynamics team and am excited by the prospects of establishing, in Greece, what could become one of Europe's leading large-scale medical cannabis cultivation facilities."

ADYOR and NAI.

Good luck.

[oakridge] 10/3/2023 12:57

I suspect Celadon will get its own thread in time.

I've researched this company (and others within the sector) well.

It sits right within the SPACE I'm interested in for 2023.

People looking in at CEL's rise should also look at freshly listed HELLENIC DYNAMICS (HELD). HELD are Medicinal Cannabis cultivators with one of the largest cultivation licenses granted anywhere in Europe. They will be growing out of a site, which is deemed strategically astute/significant, in northern Greece. They are the only pure-play cultivators (ie suppliers) listed on the LSE main mkt.

HELD are trading at a barely visible 0.085p a share (ie less than a tenth of a penny) but the first harvest is expected in late Q2 and they have recently reiterated more than adequate cash runway to get them to first sales (term sheets already signed into the German mkt).

Huge upside if they can prove they are operationally competent. I believe they will prove just that with a good BOD and key proven staff (eg Carl Haffner - ex Avida Global!) brought in to help make it all happen.

Celadon are interesting in that they have direct access into a key clinical trial. Their UK based growing facility will be phased, much like Hellenic's , but their capacity is, I think around 10% of Hellenic's total granted license....which will run at a staggering 54,000kg of dried THC dominant flowers a year (when fully maxed out in PIII). In other words, Hellenic have the potential to become one of the largest European based suppliers, coupled with the cheapest cost base (ie water, energy and labour) that come with being located in rural Greece.

This gives you some idea of the potential of Hellenic, should they get it right.

But any trial data coming out of companies like CEL will be important and a rising tide should lift all boats.

Interesting times for the space.

NAI, ADYOR, AIMO and GL.

[czar] 17/1/2023 16:39

This is certainly an unloved stock but that spells opportunity. With GMP approval the business can start making money from both LVL and Celadon Grow. The first division is expected to produce £4m EBITDA pa and the second £50m EBITDA compared to a market cap of £87m. This is clearly a ten-bagger from here IMHO.

James Short, Chief Executive Officer of Celadon said:

"With the receipt of GMP registration, Celadon has joined a very select group of cannabis-focused pharmaceutical companies globally. This is a tremendous milestone for the Company given the significant capital and regulatory requirements in this sector.

"Today's announcement is the culmination of four years of hard work. I would like to thank the team and our loyal shareholders for their support and belief in our vision as we continue our journey of putting the patient first in ensuring they can access the cannabis-based medicines they so desperately need."

[czar] 15/1/2023 09:34

Wow this interesting little Company is certainly flying under the radar!!!

Based on the above, Celadon remains confident that the Company will obtain registration from the MHRA for the GMP manufacturing of its cannabis API. The directors anticipate receiving this registration during Q1 2023.

James Short, CEO of Celadon, commented:

"The Company is pleased to confirm that the inspection from the MHRA and third-party testing of the batches of Celadon's cannabis oil have now been completed in line with management expectations. We remain confident that the Company will obtain registration from the MHRA for the GMP manufacturing of its cannabis API during Q1 2023, following which we believe we will be one of a limited number of GMP approved pharmaceutical cannabis facilities in the world. This will be a significant milestone for the Company and will unlock significant revenue opportunities."

If this registration comes through this quarter CEL will fly and should be above the placing price by the end of this year. Its very strange to find a Company with such potential completely ignored. Fingers crossed.