Calnex Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 07/3/2023 09:45

I'm not a fan of 'forward multiples' for this type of company.

Three and a half years of revenue buys the whole of CLX.

apad

ps
I was a bit quick buying at 121p this morning. Later breakfasts in future. 😊

[steeplejack] 07/3/2023 09:36

Yes,i agree.It’s difficult to see how the stock can command a forward multiple of over 30 times that implies a price around a quid tops.One to watch though,well managed tiddlers like this could prove takeover targets in time.

Those well timed director sales reaffirm my faith in closely watching ‘insider’; dealing!

[apad] 07/3/2023 09:35

Posted elsewhere, riv.

"I was hoping/expecting for a CLX markdown and this subsequent response. 5G roll out will be with us for years and increasing in complexity - so more testing. No instant gratification, but cheap for its quality, management and sector.
I came close to trimming my holding (113p Book Cost) but decided to hold back some cash instead (I guess it should've been 'as well'. 😊
I'm expecting something of a rise over the day."

I bought at 121.08 over breakfast 😊

GLA
apad

[rivaldo] 07/3/2023 09:25

Thanks for the comments chaps, appreciated. Getting lucky takes practice!

CLX shareholders were fortunate to have a proxy company like SPT to follow. I was amazed the share price held and then bounced as it did (and was starting to doubt whether it had been correct to sell). Those left in had a wonderful opportunity to take profits before today's warning.

I can see the price dropping to anywhere between 80p-100p given that the forecast for the coming year has been slashed in half to 3.6p EPS (mitigated a little by the forecast £17m cash pile).

As RP19 states, CLX is a very good company, but affected by short-term factors. It had to trade perfectly to justify its premium rating. The negative outlook might perhaps encourage bid interest I suppose, but that's no reason to invest in itself.

[steeplejack] 07/3/2023 09:21

It would appear that 5G is proving to be something of a damp squib and not proving the catalyst for all sorts of new mind boggling applications.We have the macro economic climate concerns but also this nagging worry that 5G is simply going to fall short of expectations.

[rp19] 07/3/2023 08:32

Like the company, sector and management but sold my remaining holding today after some sales at higher prices at end of '22/start of '23. 'Very conservative' view noted in the Cenkos Note but revised EPS at 3.6p for '24 still means it is on a pretty lofty rating at £1.25. Watching brief now. (edited dates).

[cockerhoop] 07/3/2023 08:07

No position myself but really well played by Rivaldo, CLX Cenkos note today actually references the Spirent January 20th TS that he acted on.

[masurenguy] 07/3/2023 07:59

Spirent, the largest customer for Calnex, have their full year results out today. Whilst referencing "some delays" and "a challenging H1 in 2023" they also state that "We have proactively engaged with our customers and the feedback reiterates their intention to continue to develop and implement their 5G infrastructure, and we therefore expect momentum to improve in the second half of the year. As increasingly sophisticated, complex technologies are deployed to drive faster, more reliable, more secure networks, demand for comprehensive assurance solutions will continue to grow."

[steeplejack] 07/3/2023 07:47

There were some canny director sales in January in the 190s.

[mammyoko] 07/3/2023 07:19

Reminder to self - bad news travels more slowly than good

[johndoe23] 07/3/2023 07:16

Unfortunately there will be more updates like this from companies this year. Not there fault, just a consequence of the macro picture.

[hydrus] 07/3/2023 07:15

Yep looks like Rivaldo's strategy worked out well here. Could be a decent opportunity to add this morning.

[hastings] 07/3/2023 07:12

Ouch! unfortunate warning on 2024 with Cenkos substantially scaling back on forecasts. I guess we will take a bit of a hammering this morning.

[mammyoko] 06/3/2023 18:17

Update expected, no date for it confirmed by company. Now overdue compared to previous two years

[disc0dave45] 25/1/2023 16:30

Rivaldo, Nice call, perhaps I shouldn't be so gobby now on! :)

[rivaldo] 23/1/2023 09:32

Cheers Hydrus, you and me both as regards ability (and inclination) to trade in and out! I simply had a large holding here where I wanted to protect profits in the face of SPT's warning (particularly as much of my holding was in ISAs). Given CLX's liquidity it shouldn't be a problem to buy back in at some point - hopefully at an interesting price. And yes, I'm sure we do have a number of holdings in common.

[hydrus] 23/1/2023 08:16

Agreed Rivaldo that CLX is expensive and any trading downturn could result in a sharp shareprice correction. However as you said in your post this is a high quality company with a competent CEO. Therefore for me this is one to hold longer term, taking into account the market opportunity. I'll accept the variances in the shareprice and hope the trajectory is from bottom left to the top right over time! I guess another way is trying to time it and trade in and out but that's not my skill set. Good luck with your other investments I think we hold a few in common.

[rivaldo] 23/1/2023 07:44

For transparency I decided to sell all the rest of my holding on Friday, having had a rethink after my initial sales and post here. On such a premium multiple any doubt or concern over trading could translate into quite a hefty reversal, so as others have said I decided to crystallise my several "birds in the hand"!

My sales seemed to be made into good liquidity, so there seemed to be decent demand out there although as Friday continued the price did seem to be dropping further.

Good luck all. I may well be entirely wrong as this is a good quality company with an evidently very capable CEO. It's just that at this point the downside risk seems to heavily outweigh the upside.

[apad] 21/1/2023 12:35

BTW that post is not a criticism of the article, which is not at all bad.
I just had to get it off my chest 😊

apad

[hastings] 21/1/2023 10:48

Also trimmed up, along with taking something out of Fonix. Bird in the hand and all that.

[disc0dave45] 20/1/2023 12:01

A profit is a profit.Weren't you saying also that in the context of the recent article in Shares Mag that one should simply apply the same positive outlook to CLX, so guess it's come to fruition but not as expected.Will watch and wait for this to settle.

[masurenguy] 20/1/2023 09:52

Spirent hit by a circa 17% fall in price after this mornings update. Like Rivaldo, I have taken a prudent view in the context of relationship factors & current valuation and therefore have sold a quarter of my long term position to take a good profit and I will continue to hold the balance on a long term basis.

[steeplejack] 20/1/2023 08:46

Ericcsons full year figures are out and again,long term confidence tempered by short term concerns.We remain positive on the long-term outlook for our business. However, the near-term outlook, as we also described at our Capital Markets Day, remains uncertain. We expect operators to continue to sweat assets in response to macroeconomic headwinds. In addition, we expect operators to adjust inventory levels as supply situation eases. These trends started to impact Networks in Q4 and we expect them to continue at least during the first half of 2023. At the same time, we expect good growth from market share wins, albeit not fully offsetting the near-term headwinds. In the longer-term, capex is driven by traffic growth. Given near-term macroeconomic headwinds, we expect Enterprise to grow somewhat slower than during 2022.

[rivaldo] 20/1/2023 08:18

Indeed. SPT's "delays to 'customers' investment decisions" and the increased H2 bias, on top of the number of PMDR sell trades, led me to take profits on a decent percentage of my holding first thing today. None of these trades have yet been reported presumably as they're above NMS.

I'll retain the remainder and may well buy back (or regret selling!) as CLX is a terrific company with excellent prospects. But it's on a premium rating which demands perfection in performance, so a little caution is perhaps justified as I had quite a large holding here and very nice profits since buying in immediately post-IPO.