C&c Share Discussion Threads

[eoc74] 01/8/2007 13:21

I saw that Rocksteady, however, I wonder just how competent they are.....

[r0cksteady] 01/8/2007 11:50

Management estimate that the negative impact on volumes is 70% related to weather and 30% to competition - which I am relatively pleased with.

Also factored into the 35% is that there is no improvement for August. C&C intend on cutting production and warehousing costs and do not intend on introducting a different pricing model.

[eoc74] 01/8/2007 10:02

No, nothing to do with the weather.....

I would love to know who is buying though, seeing as the buyback has been cancelled. They were €115m into the €300m earmarked. At least they are finally seeing sense on that issue....I wonder if somebody is stakebuilding or if its just pi's looking for a possible bargain. MS saw value in this at €8 recently so maybe theyre averaging down? No idea.

[laserdisc] 01/8/2007 09:39

its to be expected with the bad weather you only have to look on tesco's shelves bulmers is on offer 3:2 & its not moving. beer gardens are empty will be looking at this in the spring of 2008 in the hope of a hot summer for 2008

[mpto] 01/8/2007 09:22

looked at valuation. (say share price of 600)
EPS forecast before yesterday was circs 55c = 11x
EPS forecast after the outlook statement(35% haircut) 36c = 17x
Some brokers are saying 32/33c...but the stock does not look cheap even at these levels. Time to hit the cider !

[eoc74] 01/8/2007 08:54

Hardly a surprise seeing as they reduced earnings expectation for the first 6months by 35%....

[funkyl] 01/8/2007 08:34

Its got nothing to do with the weather. When you go in a pub and see Magners and Bulmers in the fridge, just ask the price of both.

The good times are over for this company. Competition from a top class player has seen them out of the marketplace.

Shame really.

[itansey] 31/7/2007 22:51

Bulmers Original now in over 25,000 UK on trade outlets. How many outlets is Magners sold in????

[itansey] 31/7/2007 22:48

From the S&N pre closing statement on the 13th July, i like don't like the piece where they say: "continued to grow strongly despite the poor weather"

In Cider, we have also gained share in a market which has continued to grow strongly despite the poor weather. To capitalise on the Cider opportunity we have invested heavily in the first half, skewing our annual marketing spend ahead of the peak summer period.

Half yearly results are out on the 7th August, should be interesting...

[itansey] 31/7/2007 22:43

The more i think about it the more this whole thing doesn't make sense. Does anyone have figures from S&N about their Bulmers drink. Are sales volumes increase or decreasing, increasing i bet.

I think a lot of this is done to the driving competiton of Bulmers.

[itansey] 31/7/2007 22:04

Ya, i reckon it will keep dropping. No rush to buy here as i can't see any good news coming anythime soon.

[eoc74] 31/7/2007 21:57

They have serious egg on their faces here and I cant see a buyer stepping in at this stage. Further to fall.

[jonc] 31/7/2007 21:31

Brewers droop?

[eoc74] 31/7/2007 21:15

I cant see this going up any time soon although there was also some heavy buying today, particularly after hours. I would love to know what they had to say in their conference call and I wonder why were not allowed to listen in. Analysts only aparently. I too see something suspicious in the timing of this. 2 weeks ago they said, same profit. Now 35% less. In 2 weeks? just as the weather has picked up? Competition must be really hurting. Pratt needs to get the finger out and sort this asap as his reputation is dependent on it. I think you may see over €6 sometime again but perhaps not until 2009. As for the buyback, I said at the time it was a crazy policy and I stand by that. Thyere on about cost savings now so they could start there.

[itansey] 31/7/2007 21:04

I'll watch this stock over the next couple of weeks and i may decide to bu some....

[pezza2] 31/7/2007 20:25

that explains it, thanks djderry

[djderry] 31/7/2007 20:12

Re the co buying back shares,this would have been handled by a broker on the co's behalf with a mandate given at the stert of the buy-back period.When the co. received this latest 'price- sensitive' information,they are duty bound to inform the market immediately.Hence the afternoon rns rather than at 7am.You can be sure the buy-back will contiue each day until the 300 million euro buy-back is complete.

[djderry] 31/7/2007 20:07

I heard of the profit warning at three today and I certainly had a good hour of emotional turmoil.It's my biggest shareholding and it's down many thousands of euro.And I mean many.At this stage the fear and panic has been worked through.From what I can gather,this is an update on the last profit's warning.Obviously I would have liked them to have gotten all the bad news out at that stage but,of course,one cannot predict the vagaries of the weather.As an investor,I expect flucuations in share prices (though not,admittedly such a plunge) and I'm quite used to having some shares 'under water' compared to the price I bought them.Today I suffered paper losses.I will not be selling anytime soon.Why?Well,I still believe that sooner or later the weather will improve,that the marketing strategy will 'recuit' more customers,that the share buy-back will continue,that the european trials may offer upside and that ,as a pure alcohol/premium cider play,we may flush out a bidder.Will any of these things happen? Of course I don't know but I am more interested in where the share price will be a year or five years from now.

[pezza2] 31/7/2007 19:52

As one of the earlier posters above said, does anybody understand why a company would spend the last few days buying shares back before a profits warning ?

I'm guessing they must have a reason ?

[itansey] 31/7/2007 19:15

I think there's something fishy going on hear with management. As the article above points out this is the second profit warning in two weeks. Surely things haven't change that much in two weeks. I think the bad weather is a smoke screen for the increased competition they face in the UK. To be fair the bad weather would have contributed in some way but from what i can see in London, Bulmers is everywhere and more so than Magners. Things just don't add up. My thoughts.

[itansey] 31/7/2007 19:09

From the FT:

C&C blames weather for second warning
By FT Reporters

Published: July 31 2007 16:16 | Last updated: July 31 2007 16:16

C&C Group, makers of Magners cider, saw its market value drop by more than a fifth on Tuesday after the Irish drinks group issued its second profits warning in little more than a fortnight.

The group, whose brands also include Bulmers cider in Ireland, said it expected operating profit for the half-year to August 31 to be down by 35 per cent.

At its annual meeting on July 13, C&C had said it expected operating profit for the year to February 2008 to match last year's, and that half-year operating profits would decline.

C&C said its latest profits downgrade primarily reflected "the sustained period of extremely poor weather in Great Britain and Ireland and also increased competition in Great Britain," where Scottish & Newcastle has hit back at Magners with a new version of its Bulmers brand.

It gave no further update on the full-year outlook. Shares in C&C were 21.2 per cent lower at €6.45 in late Dublin trading.

[eoc74] 31/7/2007 18:34

The Times saying this might now be a takeover target. They were saying that at €14! This will plummet again tomorrow.

[lobby ludd] 31/7/2007 17:31

yf23-1 - 'summer recruitment' is how C&C management refers to the early summer recruitment of consumers to the brand; hopefully sticking with it for the rest of the summer. The weather stopped drinkers forming a relationship with the brand in May and June, which impacts on sales even if we have an Indian summer from here on.

[timser] 31/7/2007 16:51

Either the supply channel is stuffed in the expectation of improved weather which didnt materialise and/or management has been asleep at the wheel and/or something crooked has happened internally.One way or the other is it get out time??????????Suffer the losses!!!! Alcohol is bad for you in more ways than one!!!!