C&c Share Discussion Threads

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 16:51

It is WAY overpriced and does contain something of an aftertaste

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 16:49

I think I'll cut my losses tomorrow & with the money treat myself to a fortnight in Cuba.

I am also going to do some research into the Aston Manor Brewery. Their cider contains a heady mix of phenylalanine, sulphites & drink responsibly. You'll notice that the word 'apple' is missing from the equation but I one expects that in this day and age. Everyone is at that around here.

[yf23_1] 31/7/2007 16:48

sorry General, I just came over to ivestigate whether it was oversold.
I am afraid the city proffessionals are not going to like this as it looks like incompetent management on top of everything else.
I suspect they will not be forgiving the latest debacle quickly, so no bottom fishing for me here especially as I think Magners is way overpriced.

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 16:42

ROFLMAO, I suddenly have a very bad headache and a stronge desire to vomit.
It would be quite funny if I wasn't so badly down.

There's always tomorrow.

??

[yf23_1] 31/7/2007 16:36

"The impact of the extremely poor weather on summer recruitment, together with
increased competition, leaves a degree of uncertainty in respect of the outlook
for the second half year for the Cider division."

..............................
Summer recruitment ????
Have they become a recruitment agency now then ?
Its a bit vague isnt it, does it impact their marketing or manufacturing ??
If they cant manufacture more that wouldnt be a problem as noones been drinking it apparently !
LOL !

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 16:23

LOL, big time!!

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 16:13

If this keeps on tanking, there'll be one coming here.

I want answers. Big time.

[daveyboy3] 31/7/2007 16:10

Will somebody send a cardiac ambulance to Clonmel asap!

[r0cksteady] 31/7/2007 15:52

I cannot help but feel this is due to in a large part to the weather. Below is article on bbc site re weather:

Improved conditions have appeared in southern Britain, all parts of the UK will get a taste of summer during August.

Rainfall figures across England and Wales have set new records in recent months. The data series stretches back to 1766 and yet it's the period from May to 23rd July that has seen the old record from 1789 smashed. The old figure was 349.1mm, now 387.6mm stands as a provisional total with a few days left to add into the equation.

Many regions have experienced in excess of 200% of their May-July average. Central England has seen 226% of its average with 348.3mm, beating the previous record of 296.9mm set in1879. For those who say that they've never seen anything like it, the figures prove them right.

The eye-catching total within all of these figures is the 120.8mm that fell on 20th July at Pershore College in Worcestershire, sparking the extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales.

[general johnson] 31/7/2007 15:47

Hell fire. Just returned home and checked in. This is grim,bloody grim and I'm trying to convince myself it's the weather as oppose to competition. Morrisons have a wonderful promotional display of Magners happening.

Maybe a time to top up bottom fishing

HTH, AIMVHO, DYOR, normal caveats etc. etc.

Regards

[lbo] 31/7/2007 15:43

I did say this!

LBO - 24 Mar'07 - 17:22 - 350 of 650 edit


Only problem is that Scottish Newcastle is now really taking them on!



Also the market is nervous after last week's lowering of its EBITDA forecast for 2007 which raised concerns about its future share of the UK cider market. Its raised real doubts about its ability to deliver the rate of growth that has seen its share price climb to date.

Unlike Ireland, where Bulmers has more or less a clear run at the market, Magners (as Bulmers is called in the UK) its beginning to see more competition.

Scottish and Newcastle which owns the Bulmers brand in the UK has been exploiting Magners' premium pricing position by undercutting it in both on and off-trades.

C&C's traditional reaction to this has been to up its marketing spend in response.

So its not going to be as easy as it has been.

[r0cksteady] 31/7/2007 15:33

C&C has taken a serious hammering - and I cant help but feel it has been heavily oversold. This is a bitter pill to swallow but I am and will continue to be long on this one.

[mpto] 31/7/2007 14:48

wow - 50% fall since January. I guess the issue is how much of the decline/collapse is due to the poor weather and how much is due to increased competition. If its more of the former then the stock could be in play//

[eoc74] 31/7/2007 12:11

Personally, I suspect were seeing two things. An improvement in weather coupled with short covering. And of course the buyback is helping. Could be time to fill one's boots. Anybody else thinking similar thoughts?

[r0cksteady] 31/7/2007 12:08

Hi Andrew - what leads you to believe that this is a bid situation?

[andrewbatchelor] 31/7/2007 11:57

Bid situation; this could easily go to 12 euros in the short term.

[eoc74] 30/7/2007 08:03

Saw those two articles itansey. Interesting that MS doubled their stake. I hadnt looked at the numbers and thought these increases in percentage held were due to the reducing number of shares outstanding. Shows a good bit of confidence. With the bestter weather this weekend and aparently this wee, Im happy to hold. Would even add if I had more cash available.

[itansey] 29/7/2007 12:40

Diageo chief's attack puts spotlight on C&C's future - 29 July 2007, Sunday Business Post

Somebody is right and somebody is wrong about the future success of C&C as a company.

As Maurice Pratt sells off non-core assets, Bulmers (or Magners outside Ireland)has become the mainstay of the C&C business. And why wouldn't it?

Despite a bad summer, C&C believes it will still sell as much cider this year as it did last year. In other words, despite a total washout of a summer, C&C will sell more than €500 million worth of cider this year.

All the more reason why it was surprising for Diageo chief executive Paul Walsh to come out last week and say that the cider boom is not going to last. In a real broadside, he suggested that it was little more than a fad.

C&C has built a €2 billion business on the back of the fact that cider is something more than that. Walsh's comments explained one important thing. We now know exactly why Diageo did not make a move to take over the Pratt-run company.

Some commentators have believed for a long time that C&C was ripe to be taken over and if Diageo had any sense it would have made an offer before C&C shares climbed too high.

Based on Walsh's comments, clearly Diageo simply doesn't buy the C&C success story and doesn't see it as a long-term sustainable play.

C&C has invested tens of millions on marketing, tens of millions increasing cider production capacity in Clonmel and has already dabbled in introducing the Magners product to the US and continental Europe.

Pratt has done everything right so far. He and his marketing team have turned cider into an upmarket premium drink in Ireland and Britain and, despite a bad summer, there is little reason to believe that they cannot grow their business even more.

Walsh's comments may be a case of ''sour grapes'', given the marketing success that is Magners. On the other hand, Walsh is running one of the biggest drinks groups in the world and surely knows a thing or two about marketing. Perhaps Walsh sees the Bulmers/Magners success story as just about marketing and nothing else.

No doubt Pratt will ignore the remarks. The big question is how will the chief executives of other drinks giants interpret the comments.

If they agree with Walsh, they may stay away from making any kind of bid for C&C - at any price. Alternatively, they may see the current weakness in the C&C share price as an opportunity to make an offer.

[itansey] 29/7/2007 12:35

Morgan Stanley increases C&C share despite loss - 29 July 2007, Sunday Business Post

As the summer continues to rain on C&C's parade, one investor still has faith in the Clonmel-based cider company.

The share price has been on a downward spiral since a profit warning earlier this month which said bad weather in June and July, together with continued heavy price-led competition, would probably lead to a weak second quarter.

But Morgan Stanley has not gone cold on the owner of Bulmers and Magners. They have increased their investment in the company from 5 per cent to 9.8 per cent in recent weeks.

The financial services group bought up more than 10million of the shares on July 13, the day of the profit warning, when share prices fell by 15 per cent, wiping €500 million off the value of the company. Clearly Morgan Stanley believes is are lots of value in the drinks group yet.

[itansey] 28/7/2007 12:32

Here's the Goodbody analysis:

C&C Group (Buy, Closing Price €7.98); UK customs data on cider & beer.

Analyst: Liam Igoe T [phone] E [e-mail]

HM Revenue & Customs May data on beer and cider sales indicate that sales increased by 18% over April and 29% over May last year. We had previously analysed the Nielsen data for May which indicated a very modest (3%) rise in May cider sales (for the whole market)over April, though off-trade was up 20% in the four weeks ending June 16th and up 2% in the four weeks ending May 19th.

HM data suggests stronger growth than the Nielsen data for May. However, its data can be misleading on a monthly basis. HM data does confirm that cider sales as a percentage of beer and cider is running at 13%, which compares with 9.2% in 2003

[eoc74] 27/7/2007 09:51

I thought exactly the same itansey when I saw it. Maybe that guy should start asking himself why Guinness sales in Ireland are down 7%. He knows the answer and he knows it contains the word "Bulmers/Magners". Interestingly, I saw a report which I cant put here because its a pdf, on www.rte/business, where one of the brokers says that Customs figures for cider imports in the UK are higher than was suggested by the last Nielsen figures. Although he stresses theyre not 100% reliable. I would be amazed if cider sales are up in June considering the weather. As for August, Im not holding my breath. I saw a report saying its going to be more of the same.

[timser] 27/7/2007 09:33

Whats the U.K. weather forecast for August like?

[itansey] 26/7/2007 21:51

Wonder if this is a plant and these guys are looking to drive the price down so they can launch a takeover.

Cider boom unlikely to last, says Diageo chief - Thursday July 26 2007, Irish Independent

DIAGEO chief executive Paul Walsh said yesterday he believes the "boom" in Irish and British cider sales is unlikely to last.

He compared the recent surge in demand to an earlier fad for pre-mixed drinks such as Smirnoff Ice.

"Cider will be there, but I'm not sure the boom we've seen is a sustainable proposition," he said in London.

"There was a cohort of consumers who moved from ready-to-drink to cider. It isn't clear to me it's a long-term trend, and when you have a summer like we've had, does it really have longevity?"

C&C Group, the maker of Bulmers and Magners cider, earlier this month cut its sales forecast because of record rain over the summer.

Diageo, which owns the Cashel's Irish cider brand, sold fewer pre-mixed Smirnoff vodka drinks in the UK in each of the last four fiscal years.

Walsh said to reporters that he aims to expand the company's beer business as sales of Guinness stout decline in Ireland. He aims to set up more joint ventures, such as Diageo's tie-up with Dutch brewer Heineken NV in South Africa, because there are few brands that he believes are worth buying.