Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[capablanca64] 20/12/2020 22:36

Paraphrasing it's another variant of the virus which is running amok through South Africa with concerns around vaccine efficacy

[zwift] 20/12/2020 22:17

Capa
I can’t read the article, its behind a pay wall,

what is the Gist,

Thanks Zwift

[capablanca64] 20/12/2020 22:03

Could lead to a ban on vanadium being exporting

[parob] 20/12/2020 21:53

Discussion on lse of a golden cross happening on the charts tomorrow.hTTps://twitter.com/faramog/status/1339920418006810624

[capablanca64] 20/12/2020 21:37

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/more/why-scientists-are-concerned-about-sas-unusual-new-coronavirus-variant-20201219

[parob] 20/12/2020 20:29

Nevada's Vast Stores Of Lithium Could Fuel The Energy Transition. But At What Cost? By NOAH GLICK • DEC 18, 2020 hTTps://www.kunr.org/post/nevada-s-vast-stores-lithium-could-fuel-energy-transition-what-cost#stream/0

[zwift] 20/12/2020 20:09

Coffeecups is upsetting the LSE mafia cart.

How very dare he post a link from the Express news paper, stating that a more virulent Strain of Covid 19 is sweeping across South Africa, affecting the Young worse this time

This is what I’ve been going on about for weeks, if the UK and most of Europe are experiencing second waves, places like South Africa are going to get it much worse.

Fortune can have all the covid 19 safety Measures in place he wants. its away from work where people are catching it. What if a few key workers catch it? Lets hope he has everyone cross trained.

ATB Zwift

[zwift] 20/12/2020 18:33

I cant see vanadium used in heavy vehicles, we already have hydrogen buses operating in Greater Manchester now, HGVs are being trialed also.

ABB ( Eskom v ABB recent court case ) have been trialing/ using hydrogen and lithium fuel cells for ships for 10 years, they also recently partnered with AFC (another share I hold) For stand alone or grid connected hydrogen EV chargers.

AFC have partnered with formula E extreme to supply EV charging at race events in 2021.

I don't see VRFBs being used for anything other than Grid storage.

When we get the 55% owned BelCo Electrolyte plant operational in 18 months time, I will have a rethink.

ATB Zwift

[purchaseatthetop] 20/12/2020 16:27

Excellent link Parob...thanks. So, technology is now improving the product offering at a faster and faster pace. Just imagine where we may be in 3 years time.
As they say in the Sky Bingo adverts...exciting times.
Monday I buy more in BMN.
Wednesday I buy more in IRON.
I am a bit of a vanadium monomaniac at the moment.

[parob] 20/12/2020 15:42

Potential vanadium battery game changerDecember 16, 2020Vanadium electrolyte may put flow batteries in heavy vehicleshTTps://www.metaltechnews.com/story/2020/12/16/tech-bytes/potential-vanadium-battery-game-changer/415.html

[zwift] 20/12/2020 14:28

Thanks for all the figures everyone.

The 4000T @ $17 = $150M all sounds good.
As long as V keeps on rising and the $ to Rand Stays in our favour.

Im still not convinced we will be able to ramp up production at Vametco (74 %)to satisfy all the V requirements, Vanchem (100%) could run out in a few weeks.

We need Mokopane (64%) Operational ASAP. This is the key for me, we could end up with an operational electrolyte (Belco 55%) plant, but no V

Eskom cotracts only a few days a way

I like it when a plan comes together

ATB Zwift

[purchaseatthetop] 20/12/2020 11:01

Inventories (from audited accounts but not audited 30/6/20) were:
(US$)
30/6/20 31/12/19 31/12/18
Finished Goods 12.6m 17.1m 6.1m
WIP 7.6m 4.5m 4.5m
Consummables 12.4m 11.8m 4.5m
Others 1.5m 1.7m 2.1m
Total 34.1m 35.1m 17.2m

At least it appears that BMN is well stocked with inventory to help keep things balanced while demand picks up. The gross margin took a real kicking in late 2019/early 2020.

[plat hunter] 20/12/2020 10:30

At 24/lb the EBITDA earnings from the mining operations is circa 61 million usdEvery one dollar increase is worth circa 8 million usd in EBITDA

[plat hunter] 20/12/2020 10:25

Let's draw a line through 4000 tonnes with a production cost of 17 bucks per pound then that's circa 150 million dollars.With every one dollar in the V price over 17 usd going straight to the bottom line.

[purchaseatthetop] 20/12/2020 10:18

OK....sadly I am an accountant by trade and some more detailed revue of the ARC forecasts reveals:

Figure 11:

Administrative and other costs:
2019 $31.4m
2020E $26.0m
2021E $18.6m
2022E $16.9m
2023E $16.4m

The 2019 figure was made up of:
Staff: $9.6m
Deprec $0.2m
Prof Fees $7.6m
Bad debt $3.0m
Other $4.2m (all these above note 6 to accounts)
Other operating costs $7.6m (mine costs)
Plus and minus some other items.

Based on the fact that the business is forecast to grow hugely I do not believe that Administrative costs will fall by around 50% while income nearly trebles. The anticipated capex and developments will require considerable professional fees.

Also in Fig 11 the line above Admin and other costs (Selling and distribution costs) you can see that these costs increase in line with the increase in sales. Fully variable.

Therefore, my bulls*t antenna is quivering around bumping up bottom line by reducing semi-variable operating and admin costs.

If somebody has expertise in analysing the capability of BMN to mine the ore to actually produce the output to deliver the revenues then we might have a clearer view.

Obviously, all in my opinion and I might have got it wrong.

[nvhltd] 20/12/2020 09:52

H1 is in 11 days, but typically opaque messaging from Fortune. Does the ore run out in 11 days or 6 months. What exactly is the plan for supplying ore? Third party or Vametco. Either way costs will increase.

Only 11 days to winning the ESKOM BESS.

[purchaseatthetop] 20/12/2020 07:50

Thank you Zwift (unfiltered now as everybody is really nice here....) for that post.I read the report with great interest and it really hits the buttons.
I really like the figures 11 and 12 (OK estimates and forecasts and we shall see) but to achieve $311m revenue in 2023 up from $119m 2019 and also to move to cash positive in year 2023 of $83m after all the capex would really give a huge value to the company.
Obviously ARC are not independent and therefore not 100% objective but it gives a clear path that we can monitor against.

[parob] 20/12/2020 06:20

Latest Crux interview with CEO Fortune Mojapelo for any newbies:28/11/20Bushveld Minerals (BMN) - Vanadium Producers with Eyes on The FuturehTTps://youtu.be/fX4pIRRzB9Q

[zwift] 19/12/2020 22:47

This is an extract from the ARC report, Dated 1st December 2020 as posted on LSE

Bushveld is currently feeding Vanchem with stockpiled ore from the nearby Mapochs mine. Amongst its long-term options for sourcing feed material is developing its 64% owned greenfield Mokopane vanadium project to the north. The company is assessing the potential for constructing an open-pit mine and basic ore concentrating operation, the capital cost of which it currently envisages being in the order of R370m (cUS$22m).

Integrating Mokopane with Vanchem should, we believe, enable the former to be developed over a much shorter timeframe and at greatly lower cost than if developing it as a standalone integrated mining and full processing operation.
In the meantime, we note that Vanchem has enough stockpiled ore to support current production rates at Vanchem until H1 2021. Moreover, Bushveld has the option of supplying Vanchem with magnetite concentrates from Vametco given the latter’s substantial resource base.
Our forecasts assume Mokopane comes on stream during 2023, with Vanchem fed by external ore sources (at similar cost to the current arrangement) in the intervening period. Note that our modelled production schedule summarised below is inferred from Bushveld’s broad guidance to date on the schedule of the Vanchem refurbishment programme – final timing will be contingent on the pace and results of the company’s ongoing technical-economic studies as well as the external factors noted above. Likewise, our longer-term operating cost forecasts are assumptions, largely benchmarked against Vametco’s cost structure (adjusted for an assumed higher materials handling component of the costs given the additional haulage requirement of sourcing future ore feedstock from Mokopane). These are therefore also subject to change based on the outcome of ongoing study work.

The first few paragraphs all sound very promising.
I especially like the $22M to get the 64% owned greenfield Mokopane producing V ore.

The bits that raised my concerns are.

Vanchem is being supplied ore from a Mapochs stockpile that’ll only last until H1 2021.
If production is increased the stockpile will deplete quicker.

Vametco would have to supply ore to, Vanchem and the electrolyte plant via train/road haulage. Incurring extra costs and haulage reliability issues.

ARC “assume” mokopane will come on stream during 2023. We wont be able to ramp up production until Mokopane is operational.

Where are we going to get the extra Vanadium needed for
1-The electrolyte plant
2-Vanchem
3-Ramped up production at Vametco
4-what if we have equipment failure or another lockdown

ATB Zwift

[nvhltd] 19/12/2020 18:06

Let’s hope so. There’s been literally thousands of false dawns and claims that we’re about to move higher.

[parob] 19/12/2020 17:43

Noel likes it from a technical perspective.#BMN 15p to break out surely now. Nice weekly bullish close above the 50 sma and my trading target logically would be the weekly 200 sma at 18.51hTTps://twitter.com/borg74/status/1340324119141871616?s=21

[nvhltd] 19/12/2020 15:36

Parob: Your repost of Myles (whoever he is) tweet proves my point and yet people don’t attack him. People only see and here what they want to and disregard the rest just to suit their agenda.

He has been positive when he first bought. He was obviously negative when he sold, but he is positive now he has bought back in.

Nothing wrong with it. So why do posters get excited and hang on his every word when he is buying, but ignore his advice or opinions when he sells or becomes negative?

As always please feel free to buy, sell, trade, go short, be positive, be negative and generally do whatever floats your boat and makes money.

[nvhltd] 19/12/2020 15:17

Capa: Thanks. The trouble with most investors is their unwillingness to acknowledge that we are all different, have different opinions and those opinions can change.

My gripe (and I will continue to voice it until the trend changes) is that our company CEO has over promised and under delivered since I invested.

Someone that bought at 1.5p might possibly have a positive view compared to someone that bought at 48p. Both investors can claim to be right.

Someone that bought 5 years ago might have a different view than someone that bought at the end of 2018.

Neither investor is necessarily wrong in their opinions and views, but you should be able to post your thoughts and opinion free in the knowledge that others aren’t going to troll you personally. When those bullies do play the man rather than the ball then they shouldn’t be surprised if we all then play dirty.

I don’t know about you, but we are so close to some news regarding ESKOM that I’m prepared to hope and pray that Fortune has everything covered, but even if we win the tender it can’t change or put a gloss on the past failures.

Fortune himself is the root cause of all the doubts. Whether everything comes good in the next few weeks doesn’t excuse the way he had kept investors in the dark, failed to deliver that which is in his control and allowed the share price to collapse.

An example is the ESKOM test VRFB. It has been one disaster after another. After 5 years we still have nothing to show. Those willing to make excuses or bat this episode aside as something trivial are mad. As is often the case the company was very vocal, optimistic and stressed the importance of the ESKOM test VRFB and the relationship with UET. When things went wrong which was obvious as early as H1 2018 the communication and news flow ceased. How dare they switch it off after 4 months and not mention it for another year! How good was the relationship with UET that they couldn’t come to an arrangement to support the VRFB for the duration of the tests? What happened to the US government grant and influence?

So Fortune and Mikhail have deceived investors and continues to deceive. That is perfectly clear. There’s no argument, but more importantly it shows a lack of experience, due diligence, communication, poor management and trust between the partners in this trial to allow it to possibly destroy our future relationship and chances of success with ESKOM.

How many businesses do you know that have been in existence for 5 years or more and delivered zilch? I only know of 2. Bushveld Energy and Wake Energy Drinks.

When you think about it it’s incredible that someone has worked for 5 years and failed to deliver one single trial or turned one single lead into a revenue generating project despite the claims that BE have hundreds of leads.

Why is it that they can’t and won’t explain why the electrolyte plant is delayed, how it will impact future and near term projects and what are the plans to mitigate the delays?

Like VSUN they don’t need to manufacture the products to sell something. Mikhail is fast losing credibility in my eyes and sounds more like Scott McGreggor with his imaginary pipeline of sales. Unfortunately we operate in one of the poorest continents.