Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[huntie2] 09/11/2018 10:50

leg up? more like an arm and a leg up......

[katylied] 09/11/2018 10:49

Good to see John Meyer has finally caught up. An indicator perhaps,
SP-Angel have given up on any more cheap bucket-shop placings...

[dmitribollokov] 09/11/2018 10:02

Would have been better if the chart was a bit more chilled but looks like we’re about to leg up again...

[dmitribollokov] 09/11/2018 09:32

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 38.85p, mkt cap £430m – Lack of Vanadium Supply Threatens Global Construction

BUY - Target Price raised to 87p (from 37p)

(Bushveld Minerals now hold 74% of Vametco and 84% of Bushveld Energy it’s vanadium redox battery unit)

SEE LINK FOR BUSHVELD MINERALS PDF NOTE

Vanadium: we have been looking further into vanadium supply and demand where we see increasing probability for significant supply shortages.
The supply situation looks so serious to us that we cannot see where the market will source sufficient vanadium to meet demand for strengthened steel in the global construction sector.
The steady rise in ferro-vanadium prices in China and Europe highlights a severe shortage of available material indicating a lack of available stock the development of a significant market deficit.
The few primary producers in the market appear wholly incapable of expanding to meet demand in the next two years with so much by-product, slag, production removed from the market.
We highlight the reasons for this in the attached note, see link above.
Our ferro-vanadium price assumptions rise to US$75/kgV for 2018, 2019 and 2020 and to US$55/kgV for 2021 and US$45/kgV for 2022 and thereon.
We cannot see how the market can supply demand for vanadium in the next two years and we feel vanadium prices should settle at a higher price level than previously envisaged in the short and longer term.
Q3 results: Bushveld Minerals third quarter report highlights the impact of the 16-days unofficial stoppage at the Vametco vanadium plant and seven-days of unplanned maintenance.
The result is that Vametco’s Q3 ferro-vanadium production was some 14.6% lower than the previous quarter at 537mtV vs 629mtV.
Sales: Vametco sold 1,987mtV of vanadium into the market in Q3 down 18% on Q2 and 21.5% lower yoy.
Management have revised Nitrovan (ferro-vanadium) production lower to 2,600-2650mtV for the year due to the stoppage and unplanned maintenance.
Phase 2 completed in June sees Vametco’s capacity at 3,750mtV.
Phase 3: as part of the operational improvement initiative, designed to enhance Vametco’s productivity, the Company is reviewing the timing and required investment to expand production capacity to 5,000 mtV.
Production costs rose 11% unsurprisingly in the quarter to ZAR298/kgV (US$21/kgV) vs Q2 with unit costs guidance revised to ZAR250/kgV and ZAR255/kgV for the year.
We expect unit production costs to fall significantly from here as throughput rises and grades recover assuming no further unplanned stoppages.
Some slippage in production has also been seen as a result of grade control in the Vametco mine and the team completed 13 drill holes to increase geological confidence with the aim to improve grade control in the plant feed. Vametco will publish an updated mineral resource estimated in the new year.

[ukgeorge] 09/11/2018 09:12

SP Angel have 87p price target

[eentweedrie] 09/11/2018 07:55

how much did they sell that 1% for?

[pacificdart] 09/11/2018 07:42

MM walking it down with Bushy Q3 posting. You have to laugh at these Clowns. Time for a top up.

[dmitribollokov] 08/11/2018 10:05

This is healthy, 2-3 small down days would be good to get the chart back in check, unless there is some blistering RNS.

[coldspring] 08/11/2018 09:59

Down again in early trading.....will it recover to finish blue like it has done every day for a week.

[dmitribollokov] 07/11/2018 21:17

Yep quite a milestone; needs to have a couple of down days though now, just to get the technicals back in check, to allow it to propel to loftier more deserved heights...

[abbotslynn] 07/11/2018 15:39

70,000 at 40p

40p New high today

[jakecat1] 07/11/2018 00:34

Yep. Easy money.

[coldspring] 06/11/2018 14:18

Anyone think those warrants have been sold already?

[dmitribollokov] 06/11/2018 11:15

Quite a tussle here for 40p. Could get through, but feels like RSI will retrain any attempt to blast past it. (Would love to be wrong)

[dmitribollokov] 06/11/2018 10:01

Psbhoy - just RSI massively overbought, like I said last week or the week before can't remember, the RSI is overbought but that won't preclude a massive run up. Looks at the price action from the rerate from 8-25p, it started from an overbought base. It just doesn't go up in a straight line is all. Actually looking at the upper trend line from that rise (which is what Zak Mir crudely drew) it gets us up to near £1 by year end. It's not crazy to suggest that could happen...

[jc2706] 06/11/2018 09:47

Nobody can predict the future but the direction of travel for Vanadium is relatively clear for the short to medium term - it will remain relatively strong as there is little on the supply or demand side that is likely to produce a substantial drop. (In the very short term we may well see some form of pull back as the run up to the new Chinese rebar standards has been so strong that you can imagine some form of stockpiling has been ongoing).

Longer term is very unclear as the market is in transition with VRFBs potentially adding hugely to demand. But let's not kid ourselves that Vanadium production is inelastic for the long term. There is the potential for a lot of new supply in a few years' time as it is a relatively abundant metal. The question is where is the long term price level to balance supply and demand. My bet is that it is not as high as currently but is higher than the long term average. I am anticipating long term FeV prices to be around $50-80/kg.

The interesting thing is that Bushveld is looking to provide a model on the BE side that to some extent insulates the company from the peaks and troughs of Vanadium pricing. To do this fully would require buying a VRFB provider. This has a number of advantages but I actually don't expect them to do this. In the short term Vametco (and, hopefully, Brits/Mokopane/Brownfield acquisition) will provide excellent returns but in the long term it may well be that BE is the source for consistent margins. It will certainly be interesting to see what they come up with on this side.

[coldspring] 06/11/2018 09:12

We seem to have dipped in the mornings last few sessions but strongly back to blue by the close.

[psbhoy] 06/11/2018 08:43

Technicals are stretched in what sense bollokov?

[dmitribollokov] 06/11/2018 08:05

Could see a pull back today, technicals are pretty stretched. Consolidation and RSI coming back a bit would be healthy.

[dmitribollokov] 06/11/2018 07:04

Seem to have attracted sherlock like a rash too. Don’t know what you’ve written, don’t care, you’re filtered too. Do yourself and everyone else and slither back to the lse board. Muppet.

[dmitribollokov] 05/11/2018 18:21

That’s good, some guys have massive posis here. I had about ~ million initially and was small fry. Just going to run what i have til >£1 and see how the land lies there.