Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[vanadiumx] 04/9/2018 13:45

Interesting reading from today's FT (Vanadium highlighted for not losing its capacity) although Vanadium more relevant to national grid networks rather than car manufacturers:

Electric carmakers step up pursuit of enhanced EV batteries

[kevkan] 30/8/2018 08:30

It does not get any better than this when the UK start throwing money at it, only one technology in town that can seriously handle it £56 million is no small number

[abbotslynn] 29/8/2018 17:27

Nice one Nick :)

Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’.

Blue chip institutional investors are now on board.

Experienced mining entrepreneurs are now on board.

The outstanding warrants are down to around 10m and are reducing fast, especially taking into account the pre-selling taking place over the last few days.

59.1% of Vametco is currently owned.

Our share of Vametco will be increasing to around 70%/74% with the acquisition of the Sojitz minority holding.

Vametco 2018 profits are looking huge at the current FeV prices and production levels.

Our share of Vametco profits after tax are over £1m per week at current production and FeV prices of just $75/kg.

Current FeV prices are in excess of $80 per kg.
There is a world vanadium supply deficit and this will remain for the next 3-5 years.

The new Chinese rebar standards, which start in November, will increase their vanadium demand by a further 30%.

The Chinese are banning the import of vanadium s l a g.

The environmental crackdown in China is fueling the vanadium price rally further.
Vanadium prices have reached multi year highs.

China, one of the largest vanadium producers in the world, is expected to become a net importer of ferro-vanadium in the future.

Vametco annual production has increased to 3,750 tonnes in July this year and we are now targeting production levels of 5,000 tonnes pa by the end of next year. All production increases will be paid for through operating cash flows.

Guidance for 2018 is 2,850-3,000 tonnes of production (Nitrovan/FeV).

We are on the lookout for more brownfield vanadium production facilities to increase our capacity to 10,000 tonnes and beyond.

Our Mokopane mining licence is due any time.

Mokopane early revenue generation is coming.

The current V2O5 price is making our Mokopane vanadium project hugely profitable.
Brits vanadium - very high grades expected, thereby reducing Vametco production costs even further.

Further drilling is taking place at Vametco.

Bushveld Energy is in the very exciting VRFB sector.

BE has agreements with UET and IDC.

Plus an agreement with Eskom, the SA national power utility, for the installation of a VRFB with peak power of 120kW and peak energy of 450kWh.

Electrolyte production is moving forward for production in 2019.

Imaloto coal has a MOU with Sinohydro.

Imaloto coal BFS will be published shortly.

Lemur has signed a binding 30 year power purchasing agreement with the Madagascar state-owned utility JIRAMA.

Potential Imaloto coal sale or spin off.

Investment in Afritin Mining - first production commencing in Q4.

Other resources, iron ore, titanium, phosphate.

South Africa politics have improved significantly.

Cyril Ramaphosa, the new president, has a business friendly approach.

Ramaphosa’s South Africa is becoming investor friendly and encouraging foreign investment.

All very positive for business and mining in South Africa.

DY


Could we also add a 1st Divi to the list!

[headancer] 28/8/2018 10:43

Volumes suggest good news...

[therealenigmatic] 27/8/2018 10:40

Unfortunately I don't have an LSE account so can't post that for you.

[allabouttiming] 26/8/2018 09:23

I also have read Maurice's posts on lse and why you give this wind up merchant the air to breathe is beyond me. Sadly lse has become infested with trolls, and now I only occasionally read this site and the bushveld perspective. I work on a 10% profit to market cap, so if our first profit ever is £30 million then our market cap should be around £300 million, which is still higher then we are now in a worse case scenario. RealEnigmatic, I hope you will now post on the lse chat page what I think.

[psbhoy] 26/8/2018 01:38

What a lot of nonsense, RealEnigmatic.....seems to me that you may be one and the same person as Maurice or NVHKTD or one or two other avatars. The numbers are fantastic at +100% and +400% and nothing can stop what is coming. Get real!!

[therealenigmatic] 25/8/2018 22:16

There's a poster on LSE Maurice something or another. Seems to have a good handle on the numbers in the recent RNS and has suggested that 2018 net profit is not as rosy as some suggest and that it will NOT exceed 30m GBP.

[katylied] 23/8/2018 14:34

USTDA gives grant for South African VRFB storage demo



From a another related article...

"...USTDA has also signed a $500,000 grant in favour of Bushveld Energy, which is promoting the deployment of the Vanadium Redox Flow battery (VRFB) in South Africa..."

And the South African new IRP (Integrated Resources Plan) to be gazetted
for public review, within the next few days...

[vanadiumx] 23/8/2018 11:53

Was a great opportunity to top up.

[abbotslynn] 23/8/2018 11:32

The monthly profit on V is still incredibly phenomenal,so can't quite see why the markdown on yesterday's RNSWe are a very well run company with so many Hot irons still in the fire about to deliver

[katylied] 22/8/2018 15:22

Seems to moi, Fortune & Co. dropped the ball. Pity and no doubt they will learn from the experience. Those disputes that related to historical issues, should have been anticipated and dealt with in advance. Current Q3 needs to get Vametco back on track. As long as it does, this Q2 blip will be forgotten...

[meganxmas] 22/8/2018 14:40

Depends on views I think transitory and overreaction to operational blips... story and progress fully intact.

[brucie5] 22/8/2018 14:27

Is this fall significant? Or just annoying?

[letmepass] 22/8/2018 14:23

Was expecting much more

[katylied] 17/8/2018 15:50

John Meyer of share price Angel suggesting today, that the bridge collapse in Italy will promote an urgent review of rebar standards in Europe (apparantly still less strict than in the USA) and across the world. Speculation is that corrosion (concrete cancer) was to blame. More Vanadium, Chromium etc. needed for better rebar...

[croasdalelfc] 17/8/2018 14:57

Seller still selling - probably warrants . Now below 8m probably

[dmitribollokov] 15/8/2018 13:52

Yup and that’s just the vanadium at vametco...

£1 is the short term trgt, could be many multiples of that in a few years with all the ducks in a row. This company is rare in that it is already chucking off loads of cash, not burning it...

[brucie5] 15/8/2018 13:29

I have just sold down my modest holding in ITM this morning to grow my stake in BMN, which I hold alongside a stake in REDt as combined ways to ride the growing excitement around vanadium storage. I'm, very impressed by the continued strength of the chart here.


Anyway, this is from Pennypusher on the LSE. Perhaps sceptics here might care to comment?

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Thought I'd share a brief discussion from Twitter regarding the planned production increases, and what that would mean for our financials and by extension the share price:



Summary:
- Yearly profit after tax for 5,000 mtv and 10,000 mtv of ~£75m and ~£150m, respectively, @ 65 USD/kg FeV.
- Using average PE ratio of other cash-generative AIM100 companies this suggests a "fair value" market cap of £1.6 billion and £3.2 billion, respectively.
- Above market caps equate to a share price of £1.40 and £2.80 for each scenario.

Notes:
- Assumes 59.1% ownership of Vametco (potential Sojitz buyout to increase ownership)
- Assumes FeV price remains constant around 65-70 USD/kg (currently ~80 USD/kg)
- Does not consider other aspects of the business (Bushveld Energy, Lemur etc)

[croasdalelfc] 13/8/2018 18:03

5m warrants exercised

[katylied] 13/8/2018 13:38

SP Angel playing catch up as usual...

Bushveld Minerals (BMN LN)...

27.8p, £300m – Strong vanadium prices combine with weak South African rand to lift earnings expectations for Vametco

BUY - Target raised to 33.6p (from 25p)

Bushveld Minerals have the luck of the Irish, which is an old mining expression from when Irish miners made their fortunes in the gold rush in the US in the early 19th century. Bushveld appear to share their good fortune with ongoing strength in vanadium prices combining with dramatic weakening in the South African rand.
Ferro vanadium prices are a staggering $80-82/kg for 78% FeV in Europe and $80-85/kg fob in China according to the Metal Bulletin. Bloomberg report a similarish $78.80/kg for FeV 80% fob China.
Scenario 1:

If we take the average of $66/kg through the last six months and then assume say $80/kg for the rest of the year and then do the same with the US$:ZAR currency rate we get:

EBITDA = ~US$165m
Attributable EBITDA = ~US$97m.
This lifts our valuation to 34p.5/s assuming the US$:ZAR remains the same and that vanadium prices remain at our longer term assumption of US$35/kg through 2019 and beyond.

Scenario 2:

Valuation to 33.6p/s
As analysts we generally try to more cautious than this in our forecasting as we would prefer to be upgrading our favorite stocks than downgrading them.
If we assume the current vanadium price through the first seven-months of the year $66/kg is repeated through the second half and remain with the spot South African rand rate then we get:
EBITDA = ~US$146m
Attributable EBITDA ~US$86m

Scenario 3:

There may be a good case for lifting our longer term vanadium price forecast based on the strength of vanadium prices so far this year.
Vanadium prices have averaged around ~US$66/kg over the past six months and may well remain elevated in future years though restarting and new supply, such as that planned by ‘Energy Fuels’ is being attracted into the market by higher price levels.
If we assume US$66/kg for the year + a longer-term Ferro-vanadium price of US$45/kg vs our current US$35/kg assumption combined with the current US$:ZAR rate then this takes our NPV-based valuation to 51p/s

Conclusion: Vametco is seeing extraordinary growth in its cash flow generation from much higher than anticipated ferro-vanadium prices which is further supported by a significantly weaker South African rand.

The rand is being driven by the general flow of funds back into the US dollar and ongoing bad press relating to land confiscations from white farmers without compensation in South Africa.

In valuation terms, we are raising our target price to 33.6p. This may well prove to be a base case for Bushveld’s share of the Vametco cash flow with potential for a significantly higher valuation if ferro-vanadium prices can find a higher long-term base....



And BMN is not just about Vametco... :o)

[croasdalelfc] 13/8/2018 13:23

And the zaR is weakening