Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 14/7/2022 15:45

And the 5's... I remember Lycra Mo laughing at me when i fist said 25p, again when i said 20p, again when i sad 12p and again when i said 7pWhat a lemon this is

[megaman2] 14/7/2022 15:44

You must have sold by now surely ...no kunt would call 5 p a ridiculous price and 40 p just positive and hold down to 6.2 p surely not ...when did you sell. ??

[whoknew1234] 14/7/2022 15:40

Still holding any?

[megaman2] 14/7/2022 14:53

Arc have a valuation of $25 million for be in their recent update ...I'm guessing $12 mill cellcube and $6 mill ekectrolyte..so $7 mill value for Mikhail ...generous for Mikhail imo I can't see how hes worth a bean...the 18 p is includes base case 5000 MTV and then a certain percentage of growth to 8000 MTV over 5 years. They have calculated nav at 8000 MTV and applied a percentage for the growth from 5000-8000 mtv.There seems an awful lot baked into their current valuation that has yet to pass . Also I don't believe it includes any dilution to find the $151 million...But what's evident is the 18 p bakes in much of the best case scenario upside and talk of 50p even in 5 years is a fantasy based on their data ...

[whoknew1234] 14/7/2022 13:48

https://www.cellcube.com/cellcube-and-gw-electric-are-joining-forces-to-bring-microgrids-to-the-next-level/

[nvhltd] 14/7/2022 13:15

This is the sort of news we want. Joining up with a electrical equipment manufacturer and project developer.

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6953314513244876800?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_share&utm_content=post

[nvhltd] 14/7/2022 12:08

Let’s hope not in this case as it will mean delays on top of delays all of which BMN can do without.

[megaman2] 14/7/2022 11:48

Not specific to bmn/must but all the spacs I've followed seem to get delayed as the FCA request some changes etc..

[nvhltd] 14/7/2022 11:34

Just over 2 weeks for Mustang to issue a prospectus and relist.

[whoknew1234] 14/7/2022 06:28

https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/metal/minor-and-specialty-metals-vanadium37.5/kg

[megaman2] 14/7/2022 06:12

Falls continuing hxxps://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/

[plat hunter] 13/7/2022 20:06

BMN needs bank debt, BMN can't get bank debt.If BMN was a person, they'd have a part time job at their local betfred, terrible diet of high sugar and salt foods, washed down with cheap sugary energy drinks. Hooked into never ending cycle of pay day loans, brighthouse furniture, mobile top up cards.It's cash cow for the bod and willing creditors only. Issue debt, Bod's kickback, converted into shares, shares sold. Rinse and repeat until it gets crushed below the issue price and then bye bye. Nice little set up for the creditor fully, built, expanded, working and profitable if the debt gets cancelled. All paid for by you the shareholder.

[megaman2] 13/7/2022 17:46

The infuriating thing here is the folk ramping the stock simply won't listen and won't give it up . They refuse to admit that the $151 m capex requirement changes the valuation of the company but it massively does they are just ignoring it and blaming the fall in share price on everything else. The value of the company was predicated on expansion to 8000 MTV at a much lower and attainable cost . This now has a knock on effect also to the Orion cln as things currently stand it's less likely to convert and more likely be renegotiated at much worse terms or even worse... . Things are now not the same as before . Should everyone sell up and write this off no that's not what I'm saying should they re-evaluate the potential risk reward and share price expectations most certainly !! The other kick in the teeth for folk ramping the stock was this expectation that through be bmn was on the cusp of being the next itm power they couldn't really communicate exactly how this would happen but it was their belief . I never fell for that bs so when they announced the carve out it was no surprise ...imo it will be a massive failure as it's run by Mikhail who I have zero faith in .. I see no intrinsic value in be ...happy to be proved wrong but my personal expectations are low ...very very low ..

[purchaseatthetop] 13/7/2022 15:07

The market like us has realised that there is mere 16 months to generate $46m for Orion and goodness knows what conditions there are on the $30m royalty loan. As I posted this is an existential threat to all holders. Companies Act requires all stakeholders to be considered by when it gets to liquidity, it’s debt that rules and they must be protected.

BMN right now is actually worth 0p per share.

[nvhltd] 13/7/2022 15:01

The management of this business is woeful and they should be in full crisis mode. Fortune and Mikhail should no longer be at home or touring the world on vanity conferences. Both should be at the plants with their sleeves rolled up shovelling rock through a crusher.

The company share price burns while they say nothing and do nothing to stem the collapse.

This company needs weekly or monthly updates on everything to change sentiment and promote anything vaguely positive.

[1347] 13/7/2022 14:34

You don't need to figure anything complicated out, it's here in the AR, page 34:

All-In Sustaining Cost US$/kgV $37.4

Average realised price US$/kgV $32.2

So last FY BMN was losing $5 per kgV, then the Opex and Finex and the Capex.

Not a viable Business Model really is it?

[plat hunter] 13/7/2022 14:25

5's not far off now at all

[nvhltd] 13/7/2022 13:31

This is like the debate we all have when something breaks down in our lives like a laptop. We are torn between short term fixes that are affordable at the time or biting the bullet and splashing the cash in a single purchase to replace the old.

At first the battery goes and we pay to get it replaced. Still cheaper than buying a new laptop. Then the screen goes. The repair is still cheaper than a new laptop. Then the speed slows down and the repair is still cheaper than a new laptop. Then it needs a new power pack. Ok, still cheaper than a new laptop.

Only when we sit back and reflect with the benefit of hindsight and the invoices in front of us do we realise we would have been better off buying a brand new laptop with 5 years of trouble free use ahead of us and a guarantee.

Fortune is in that position now. The repair costs are racking up and we have got to the point of no return. We have to invest in an old broken plant because we no longer have the cash or credit line to buy a new one.

It’s turned out to be a mistake. Not one he could have foreseen totally, but he would and should have known the risks. The gamble has not paid off. We would have been better off with a single efficient new plant producing 5,000 mtv consistently and with limited risk than 2 expensive plants producing the same amount.

Obviously Fortune can’t and won’t accept or announce publicly that things never went to plan, but he knows deep down he called it wrong.

Of course there is a flip side to this which is that it was the only thing open to him because like a lot of people without savings or cash they are forced to pay for things in instalments from “Cash Converters” on the never never.

This could swing the other way again and prove to be the best and only way to get that new plant at Mokopane. Small incremental steps that have higher costs, but ultimately lead to bigger things. The trouble is the money we have borrowed from the loan sharks comes with sky high interest rates and payments.

Unfortunately Fortune and Mikhail never communicate with investors. We are lucky if we get news or a preplanned PR video interview from friendly commentators. The only time they did an Investor Meet presentation he took up all the time rambling with the same messages and next to no questions. Written questions were never answered.

I have many questions for both Fortune and Mikhail, but I’m curious to understand how they came up with a plan to borrow $24 million in November 2020 from Orion that would lead to production of 4,200 mtv at Vametco?

So 18 months ago they sat down with their onsite experts and consultants where they discussed the path to 4,200 mtv at Vametco and separately the costs to refurbish kiln 3 and associated plant. All in all to deliver 6,800 mtv.

Everything would have been identified and costed. They would have prepared and presented a proposal to the various interested parties. Orion said “we like your plan. It looks good. You have costed everything, have a clear vision how the expansion plan would be implemented so yes, we’re in”.

Roll on less than 18 months and they now need another $50 plus million to implement stage 1 and 4 of a new plan that still only delivers 6,800 mtv.

How did that happen? What has gone wrong? What happened to the route to 6,800 mtv with the original Orion loans? Why all of a sudden and out of the blue do they need a whopping $151 million on top of the $44 million plus interest that we’ve already borrowed and blown?

I can’t remember the total cost to purchase Vametco and Vanchem, but with the various loans, operating losses and loss of production since 2017 we are well over the cost of a new plant.

[whoknew1234] 13/7/2022 12:57

Don't you still have a holding in this sinking ship?

[megaman2] 13/7/2022 12:22

There is a major question here everyone has missed. I note in arcs recent update there was some babble about the $151 million being less than building new Greenfield ...

Well yes $151 million is less than the $300 million that largo spent to build a brand new plant producing c 6800 MTV equivalent . But the $151 million only produces 2600 MTV more so is a much more expensive route from here on a pro rata basis . Surely they would be better to build a new plant for mokopane...but they can only dream of raising the $300 million largo managed ..

Bmn between a rock and hard place they need to boost production to lower costs but it's an expensive route ..is it worth it ??? Maybe irrelevant as they don't have the money anyway ...

If the v price keeps it's trajectory this is going to 5p or lower for sure....

The Main problem is now the $151 mill bombshell means the chance of an s p above 17 p before Orion clns mature has greatly decreased and so a $46 million debt matures end of next year . That's it in a nutshell.imo. also the PFA isn't reducing as production at vametco isn't going up so they are just paying the interest.

[nvhltd] 13/7/2022 12:00

Pdub would go down on a sinking ship if the captain told him that the gaping hole in the hull was but a scratch even if the sea water was upto his neck. He’d still be saying “trust the captain, you’re all being too negative and not helping the situation by taking to the lifeboats”.

[megaman2] 13/7/2022 11:49

Hats off to pdub for being positive about his cancer clearly he has a winning strategy there .

However he applies the same strategy to bmn. His positivity has no affect on the performance of the share unlike his cancer it's out if his control completely. His view is clearly distorted by only focusing on the positives and amplifying them beyond their true worth . It's not a good strategy imo.

When he uses. NDA in defence you can take it to read "Nothing Doing Apparently "