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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burst Med Reg S | BRST | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 31.25 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.25 | 31.25 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 22/4/2011 11:13 by michaelmouse Personal blog for any interested parties. Posted on here because I do refer to brst. Otherwise just ignore. Regards. Michael. |
Posted at 08/4/2011 21:12 by michaelmouse Personal blog in which I refer to BRST, for any interested parties.Michael. |
Posted at 30/5/2007 20:55 by shooting_star Been a while since I posted here but I'm still long BRST and think there remains big upside in this stock if they can execute a recovery. They must surely be receiving some attention from larger players! check out what CEO has been saying |
Posted at 25/5/2007 13:21 by wiganer Not really Ken; Unless memory is playing tricks on me, I bought in 3 chunks several months back, then sold the lot some time later, and have just bought back in, so in reality only really my second BRST trade. |
Posted at 23/5/2007 15:13 by obarmoth Thanks - I'll get an account opened PDQ - even if they are a bit pricey! Please don't let BRST move in the meantime... ;-) |
Posted at 23/5/2007 15:03 by wiganer Yes, I've done several past and present BRST trades with TDWH without any problems. I've also traded other "tricky" shares with them fine. The only share they ever had a problem with was VOF about 3 years ago |
Posted at 23/5/2007 14:58 by obarmoth Bloody hell! 24 hours later, Hopeless Brennan have just called me back to tell me that they weren't able to trade BRST after all as it's a residual stock - they have therefore reversed the trade on my account!!Are you sure that your trade with TDW has been honoured, Yonmon/Wiganer? I want to get back into this one ASAP but would need to open an account with them to do so... |
Posted at 26/1/2007 12:29 by metaphysicalman HiCopy of a post I made on TMF in case anyone is interested: The purpose of this post is to attempt to come up with a valuation, based on a potential range of results that BRST might fall within for the year ended 31 December 2007 and 2008. I am bullish on BRST, and am long the stock, so please bear this in mind when reading, and, as always, do your own research. As a further caveat, all such models are edifices built from several layers of guesswork. I have tried to justify my assumptions below, but they are just that, assumptions, which are based on my interpretation of past results, speculations on the future, and conversations with management. In respect of the later, let me make clear that when I spoke to the FD, we did not touch at all on the 2007 figures; rather I mean that from our general chat about the business I have drawn inferences about the level of spending going forwards. I am ignoring stock compensation charges as non-cash and not dilutive of earnings as all options are very underwater or not vesting for a while. The first step I have taken is to construct a breakdown of the 2006 result, which is itself a guestimate, given that all we know at the moment is that revenue is "broadly in-line" with the forecast of $24m, and EBITDA is "in-line" with the forecast of $2.4m. Assumptions for 2006: - I have taken this to mean that revenues will come in at $23.5m and EBITDA at $2.4m. - The trading update mentioned commission rates remained strong. I have taken this to mean that gross margins have stayed at a similar level, using 48.5% for 2006 total v 48.9% for H1 2006 and 2005. - DA for H1 2006 was $78k, and EBITDA included other income of $95k; if these remain constant for H2, this means operating profit would be $2.05m for 2006. - This implies total overheads of $9,347,500 for 2006. I have split this $2.1m technology and product development (around the same as H1 as costs relating to Burst Direct would have dropped off in H2, but may be more relating to AdConductor customisation), $2.2m G&A (constant in H2 05 and H1 06 so assumed to be only slightly higher in H2 06), and $5.0475m S&M, reflecting a full half year of increased sales force. Assumptions for 2007: - S&M increases 5% - 15%. Low increase as already heavily recruited in 06 in anticipation of growth. From conversations, I wonder if they may even end 07 with fewer S&M staff than 06. Nonetheless assumed above inflation pay rises and some staff increases - G&A increases 10 20%. Again should be conservative given that there are no key costs areas which will need to increase massively to support revenue growth following investment in 06, e.g. already have sufficient office space for current staff. - R&D remains flat: bit of an unknown, but assumed a decrease in Burst Direct costs offset by increase in other R&D costs. - Other income to remain flat. Interest income approximated in line with percentages achieved in prior years, based on assumption that cash inflows are broadly 85% of operating profit. - Revenue: the really hard one. I have assumed 15% - 40% growth. Why? In a really tough year (i.e 2006) they achieved 9% growth (on my assumption). Renewed management focus, a full Sales & Marketing team, a rapidly increasing amount of money being thrown at on-line advertising, and a strong showing in the online league tables of ad-reach should mean that they should be capable of heading back towards the ~50% revenue growth achieved in both 2004 and 2005. - Gross margins: to stay strong at 48%. Margins may erode slightly in core business, which management would be happy about as it is usually as a result of longer term contracts, offset by what I assume are higher margin AdConductor licence sales. - Tax at US rate of 40%, including federal and state taxes - Dollar/pound exchange rate stays at average $2:£1 again a large assumption. I note that the UK operations are an increasing part of the business, which slightly mitigates any negative movement. Assumptions for 2008: Revenue growth: 15% - 30% Gross margin: 48% Overheads increase: 15% Exchange rate constant So, what do these assumptions throw out in terms of results? Well, the "worst case scenario" is: 2006 2007 2008 $ $ $ Revenue 23,500,000 27,025,000 31,078,750 Cost of sales 12,102,500 14,053,000 16,160,950 Gross profit 11,397,500 12,972,000 14,917,800 S&M 5,047,500 5,804,625 6,675,319 G&A 2,200,000 2,640,000 3,036,000 R&D 2,100,000 2,100,000 2,415,000 Operating profit 2,050,000 2,427,375 2,791,481 Other income 760,000 900,000 1,300,000 PBT 2,810,000 3,327,375 4,091,481 Tax 1,124,000 1,330,950 1,636,593 PAT 1,686,000 1,996,425 2,454,889 EPS($) 0.020 0.024 0.030 EPS(£) 0.010 0.012 0.015 And the "best case scenario"? 2006 2007 2008 $ $ $ Revenue 23,500,000 32,900,000 42,770,000 Cost of sales 12,102,500 17,108,000 22,240,400 Gross profit 11,397,500 15,792,000 20,529,600 S&M 5,047,500 5,299,875 6,094,856 G&A 2,200,000 2,420,000 2,783,000 R&D 2,100,000 2,100,000 2,415,000 Operating profit 2,050,000 5,972,125 9,236,744 Other income 760,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 PBT 2,810,000 6,972,125 10,736,744 Tax 1,124,000 2,788,850 4,294,698 PAT 1,686,000 4,183,275 6,442,046 EPS($) 0.020 0.050 0.078 EPS(£) 0.010 0.025 0.039 So, as usual with these models, a huge variation between the two cases. I think it is worth noting that even in my "worst case scenario" the EPS is growing at 20%+ per year. Now of course my "worst case scenario" is not the worst case scenario by any means, but I have been reasonably cautious (perhaps with the exception of the exchange rate assumption). So, how does this tie in with valuation? I tried to find a sector PER using Sharelockholmes and excluding negative PERs, and the "outliers" (three highest and lowest PERs) gives an average of 21 (if anyone has a more soundly calculated figure, please let me know). "Worst case scenario" gives, at today's purchase price of 23p, a forward PER of 19 for 2007 and 15 for 2008, not bad for 20%+ EPS growth (PEG less than 1), and under sector average. This suggests that, at the "worst", the current price is slightly undervalued. "Best case scenario" gives a 2007 PER of 9 and 2008 PER of 6 on EPS growth of almost 100% per year (averaged). If we take a target share price giving equal to market average PER, this suggests an initial target of 52.5p rising to 82p. (The float price was 82p in April 2006!). This would put the share firmly in potential multi-bagger territory. I was going to finish by saying that the truth probably lies somewhere between these two scenarios, but, given the number of assumptions, I'm not sure that I can even be as certain as that. I believe that our illustrious landlord performs similar calculations on Indigovision and other companies, so I am somewhat reassured that the exercise is not in itself necessarily completely worthless. Finally, I would not expect the company's own forecasts to be near the upper end of my range. Having had the horrible experience of missing forecasts and being kicked by the market, I am sure that they will be conservative and put out forecasts that can be exceeded. Any comments welcome. Regards MetaphysicalMan |
Posted at 23/1/2007 09:53 by wiganer I buy via TDWH with no problems. As for spreadbet companies I think IG Index used to quote for BRST, so I assume they still do.Edit: and there's a tick-up. |
Posted at 08/12/2006 15:11 by wiganer Talking of "Reg S" companies I supect today's fall has been exacerbated by today's news about LDG, which follows on from the recent Skycap debacle. Unfortunately such events lead decent US-based/Reg S AIM companies to get tarred with the same brush. I think this is one of the reasons BRST got hammered so badly and also that GKR has struggled to command a decent valuation. In the long run though value should out, assuming that both BRST and GKR are decent honest businesses as I believe. |
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