Bt Share Discussion Threads

[1224saj] 21/8/2024 19:33

Likewise :-)

[davius] 21/8/2024 17:36

Just repeating it, not agreeing with it, otherwise I'd be selling rather than buying...

[1224saj] 21/8/2024 16:35

Davius, more tripe from UBS. I'm in telcos for 30 years. Had wholesale agreements with city fibre and talk talk, who are about to tap up their shareholders for cash, with Dunston having to dig deep. As for city fibre, it's the rural reach that has tied in Sky. This is an area than BT did not see as very profitable.This a buying opportunity, which UBS are trying to squeeze a little more out of weak holders.

[davius] 21/8/2024 14:52

Pressure on BT Group shares continued into a second session today as City experts calculated the Openreach impact of Sky’s landmark broadband deal with alt-net provider CityFibre.

The competition fears triggered by the new partnership wiped £900 million from BT’s value at yesterday’s close, erasing most of the gains seen since Bharti Communications last week disclosed it had bought the 24.5% BT stake previously held by Altice UK.

BT shares this afternoon traded 1.65p lower at 134.65p, a level that attracted the interest of interactive investor customers as one of our most-traded stocks for a second day in a row.

The shares were near 100p in late April but subsequently rallied on the back of new chief executive Allison Kirkby’s boost to free cash flow guidance.

Sky is the largest customer of BT’s regulated Openreach division, spending a reported £950 million a year in order to supply its six million internet customers with fibre broadband.

Yesterday Sky disclosed a long-term partnership that will also see it launch broadband services on the CityFibre network. The alt-net supplier has a footprint of 3.8 million and is committed to expand its network to at least eight million premises over the coming years.

It hailed the Sky partnership as “a huge vote of confidence” and one that cemented CityFibre’s position as the UK’s third digital infrastructure platform.

BT’s annual report in June revealed that Openreach had so far passed more than 13.8 million homes and businesses as it looks to meet a target of 25 million by the end of 2026. It has 30 million in its sights by the end of the decade.

A note published today by UBS estimates that the Sky deal will have an Openreach impact of about £120 million a year in terms of high margin wholesale revenue. This represents a 7-8% hit on BT’s normalised free cash flow over the medium term.

UBS, which has a price target of 110p after downgrading to a “Sell” rating last summer, warned that the partnership may not be the end of the bad news for BT.

While CityFibre’s target is eight million homes, UBS expects its ambitions will grow following the Sky deal and that this could mean the impact on BT doubles over time.

UBS said: “CityFibre is adding about 50,000 connections a quarter but we expect this to grow. We see a risk that Openreach has to cut fibre wholesale pricing to defend its position adding further downside – fibre pricing has already been reset twice.”

It also highlighted reports that Virgin Media O2 has revisited M&A discussions with TalkTalk, which is the second-largest customer of BT/Openreach spending an estimated £850 million.

TalkTalk has 3.6 million broadband customers, with its main infrastructure providers being Openreach and CityFibre.

UBS said: “Any potential acquisition of TalkTalk would give VMO2 a secondary brand to target the value segment of the market and yield potentially significant synergies from transferring subscribers over to the VMO2 network.”

The bank warns that a VMO2/TalkTalk deal could potentially put £385 million a year of Openreach revenues at risk. It added: “We reiterate our view that UK broadband infrastructure competition is increasing”

[netcurtains] 21/8/2024 12:30

Is it what rather than which? Not sure...

[justiceforthemany] 21/8/2024 12:03

Ridiculous over reaction yesterday.
Short seller driven.

[netcurtains] 21/8/2024 09:01

Yeah BT looks good bet.
Thanks

(I bought a few more as a result of positive article.
If it fell on negative article, statistically might recover slightly on positive)

[patio58] 21/8/2024 08:42

JPMorgan has reiterated its 'outperform' rating on BT Group Plc despite competition concerns hitting the stock following the announcement that Sky has signed a wholesale deal with CityFibre.BT's share price dropped more than 6% on Tuesday to settle at 136.3p after competitor CityFibre announced a long-term broadband partnership with Sky, which will see the latter offer its broadband to people on CityFibre's nationwide full fibre network.Sky's full fibre broadband is expected to be available on CityFibre's full fibre network from next year. Longer term, this will include more than 1.3m homes in hard-to-reach areas through CityFibre's participation in the government's Project Gigabit Programme.However, JPMorgan said the news shouldn't come as a surprise to BT shareholders. "There has long been speculation Sky would sign a deal with either VMO2 or CityFibre. We consider this a natural step as Sky looks to preserve its negotiating power and maintain strategic flexibility," said analyst Akhil Dattani.Dattani pointed out that only 1.5m of CityFibre's total 3.8m-home footprint overlaps with BT's coverage at 15m homes, and that the hard-to-reach areas CityFibre is targeting are only expected to see "limited build from BT"."Investors have long struggled with trying to model how the UK Fibre landscape will evolve, and what this means for BT's future fibre returns (the core driver of its investment case)," Dattani said.While the Sky deal will likely deal a blow to BT, the bulk of line losses are likely to come at the expense of Virgin Media O2 due to the areas in question, the analyst said. JPMorgan already predicts that BT Openreach's 70% network penetration will fall to 60% over the long term anyway."Hence we believe any material sell-offs [at BT] should always be seen as buying opportunities and we remain confident in our 290p target price (110% upside potential)," Dattani said.

[1i1i1i] 21/8/2024 08:32

JPMorgan stays positive on BT, downplays Sky deal with CityFibre https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/jpmorgan-stays-positive-on-bt-downplays-sky-deal-with-cityfibre-4480b35

[tyroneshares] 21/8/2024 07:51

Waiting for 130p-133p myself after ditching @144.9p last Wed.GLA

[action] 21/8/2024 07:43

Wait for 130p or nibble it now ..

[netcurtains] 20/8/2024 17:56

Some idiot pulled the plug out.....

[davius] 20/8/2024 16:23

Closing market report from II:

Top of the fallers was BT, down 6.4%, after Sky and CityFibre agreed a long-term partnership that will see Sky launch broadband services on the CityFibre network.

Sky’s full fibre broadband is expected to be available on CityFibre’s full fibre network from next year, CityFibre said in a statement.

The deal sparked concerns that BT's Openreach could face a loss of market share, with Sky a key customer of the London-based telecommunications provider.

But AJ Bell's Danni Hewson thinks CityFibre’s "modest scale and focus on rural areas suggest it shouldn’t be a huge issue".

[smurfy2001] 20/8/2024 16:01

diku, the only share i'm managing to do that on is CCL very tradeable via charts.

[smurfy2001] 20/8/2024 15:47

Why it could be the right time to bet on BT: As two of the world's richest men buy in... its 'misunderstood' stock is moving upwards



They fell back today on the news that TV company Sky plans to launch its broadband services on CityFibre’s network, rather than BT’s Openreach.

This was unwelcome news for BT as Sky’s existing partner. However, analysts believe the financial impact on the telecoms giant is manageable and that Sky will continue to have a relationship with Openreach.

[jetstar23] 20/8/2024 15:34

Plenty of orders on the buy side in the closing auction so I'm not concerned. Up day tomorrow I'm sure!

[diku] 20/8/2024 14:03

smurfy...my point being...sell and buy back cheaper when opportunity presents...you are still in the share...hindsight yes but telcos is not a racy sector...

[djnzloop] 20/8/2024 14:01

picking a price at any point in time and saying why isn't it now more than that is meaningless. it's more to do with the expectations from right now. I expect it to climb to around 220ish

[davius] 20/8/2024 13:59

Not complaining really, sold 5000 (half my holding) on Friday at 144.8p, bought 5000 just now at 134.6p, it brings the average down.

A rather silly over-reaction in the share price It might take a while to recover, I'm in no hurry.

[diku] 20/8/2024 13:56

2016 share price 500p...today share price xyz?...

[smurfy2001] 20/8/2024 13:55

diku, if i'd have thought like that l wouldn't be sitting on 180% gains on Natwest or 452% on Rolls Royce. Takes time to brew the chaii.

[djnzloop] 20/8/2024 13:53

160 isn't infinity :)

[diku] 20/8/2024 13:16

Forget about the yield...just imagine if sold around 145p - 146p yesterday and lucky enough to get the divi you actually would have sold at 150p+...today 134p to buy....morale of story hanging around for jam tomorrow or to infinity not working...