Bt Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 31/10/2017 10:11

UBS sees pension upside at BT

UBS believes there is up to 40p per share upside from a potential reduction in BT’s (BT) pension deficit, which stood at £9.1 billion at the end of June, according to the IAS19 accounting measure.

Analyst Polo Tang estimated that figure could now have fallen to £8.4 billion, explaining that every 10 basis points increase in yield reduced the deficit by up to £800 million, with a corresponding increase in inflation raising it by up to £700 million.

A much bigger reduction could come from a change in the mortality tables used to calculate the deficit, which helped to reduce the pension liabilities at supermarket Tesco.

‘Applying the new tables to the BT pension scheme could reduce the actuarial deficit at BT by £3 billion… and would theoretically add 30p to the valuation for BT. However, this change would require the agreement of the BT pension trustees and could be offset by more prudent assumptions elsewhere,’ he said.

A further £1 billion reduction in the deficit would come from a court victory in BT’s legal big to change the terms for a minority of members from linkage to consumer price inflation from the higher retail price inflation.

Tang has a ‘neutral’ rating and a 310p target price on the shares, which were flat at 262.8p yesterday.

[toon1966] 31/10/2017 09:58

Careful are you putting yourself in the frame for BT's next CEO?

[pacemaker1000] 31/10/2017 09:51

hxxps://investomania.co.uk/2017/10/will-catalyst-push-bt-group-plc-higher-7-decline/

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2017 09:45

Might be worth noting in the US the sector is very weak.
Look at how AT&T has sold off since recent results.

[careful] 31/10/2017 09:43

with more than 100,000 employees and 300,000 in the pension scheme it must be a difficult company to manage.
In 2 days we shall get an insight into the strategic revue.
The opportunity here is the fact that it is such an unmanageable monster.
Plenty of scope for efficiencies and cost savings.

With regard to the pension deficit, life expectancy is a key factor, as are interest rates.
The sensitivity of the deficit to these factors can result in huge swings with slight variations in assumptions.
300,000 scheme members now, but sadly, in 10 years many will no longer be with us.

It must be possible to streamline the workforce and get a leaner, more efficient outfit.
Much to go at.
Looking forward to Thursday, I expect something radical.

[orinocor] 31/10/2017 08:33

Hubshank30 Oct '17 - 14:17 - 25804 of 25810 2 0
I will do the opposite of whatever Monty does! ;-)


Very wise. I've followed this strategy for a number of years and I've made a lot of money.

[stockriser] 31/10/2017 08:02

No need I'm already in :-)

[dipso] 31/10/2017 07:28

Get in quick

[careful] 30/10/2017 16:16

Optimistic about Thursdays result.
expecting a pop.
puzzled that some guess there is more downfside to come on Thursday.
pension ruling shortly will also effect sentiment.

With luck and a calming statement Thursday, Hopefully better news on pensions we could be in for a good run until year end.

[blueball] 30/10/2017 16:01

My target price 255p coming soon.

[hubshank] 30/10/2017 14:43

Thankfully not - I have been out a while but actually not tempted as yet to jump back in! :-)

[montyhedge] 30/10/2017 14:22

Hub
I hope you did not, I called this from 315p to 265p. You would have loss money.

[hubshank] 30/10/2017 14:17

I will do the opposite of whatever Monty does! ;-)

[toon1966] 30/10/2017 13:17

The 'Italian Fiasco' is just one reason for the fall in the share price Concerns over the regulatory market and investment in broadband has got investors running for the hills, as has a highly competitive market, pension deficit concerns and structural/performance issues within BT Group. I would welcome a positive set of results on Thursday but suspect we'll need more than one good set of results to get the share price really moving upwards. Tesco is a good example of how difficult it has been to turn the ship around and get shareholder confidence.

[montyhedge] 30/10/2017 12:39

This is a binary bet. If they disappoint 245p if ok 285p. You pay yer money and see what happens.

[dmf] 30/10/2017 12:36

Numis Buy 390 target reiteration unchanged

[jenny tulwought] 30/10/2017 12:32

If "330p at some point next week", was regarded by serious investors
as 'a realistic possibility', we wouldn't be at 262p now.

[dmf] 30/10/2017 12:22

Dividend policy was 10% a year, which has now been replaced with a 'progressive policy'

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2017 12:03

That is not current dividend policy, and 15% never was from memory.

[christh] 30/10/2017 12:00

DMF
a "can of worms" can always used as a bait for fishing but not be said for BT.
A lot of turmoil in BT, wolves around trying to devour it but BT always bounces up
on profits.
There is so much pressure on the ceo as its head will be on the block if it does not deliver.
However in my opinion it has been oversold and is undervalued by as much as 30%.
It was closed to 500p and then has lost 49% because of "the Italian fiasco".
BT is a cash cow, highly profitable, good assets,good business.
It will bounce back and will not be surprised if it does not recover to 330p by
next week.

As far as divedends are concern ,they said will up the dividend by 15% every year.
The earnings have not diminished and also the profits.

[dmf] 30/10/2017 11:23

BT prepares for half-year dividend scrutiny

hxxp://www.cityam.com/274742/bt-prepares-half-year-dividend-scrutiny

[dmf] 30/10/2017 09:33

I suppose it is a "can of worms" real due diligence will need to take place by any buyer !!

[montyhedge] 30/10/2017 09:10

Who is going to buy that division, only if BT sold it fire sale price.