Brit Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[harleymaxwell] 09/10/2003 17:16

whats the link to the shares mag??

[paddyfool] 09/10/2003 15:54

I know this sounds tired but first and foremost its about nav and then its about the value in the proposition. Currently the nav equation is in the favour of the medium term investor, why? because this is very close to 100% as per the last set of results and the nav would have moved ahead since then. We are in the terrtory of what multiple the sector deserves is it 1 or n times 1?. ROE is a very valid measure but then so is ROI and prospespective roe. I would dispute the ROE figure on the basis that by year end it will be nearer 20% and wil be demonstrably maintainable. This may be one for the cogniscenti (spelt right I hope!).
This market will turn, again this sounds like King Canute! But on an historic basis the current prices are heavily discounted and yet the market has never been able to trade on such a strong pricing basis, something must give. It appears that the market valuations point to the beief that this is a bubble and the recovery is an illusion. So as ever perception triumphs over reality. At some point, you pays your money and you takes your chances, this wil change. Perhaps the biggest indicator on this is the stock markets most famous value investor is all over this sector....Warren Buffet.
This year all the ILVs other than those distressed and the horribly under reserved mega insurers will provide good to spectacular results, without doubt they will also point to the same happening in 2004 and 2005.
Well I have that off my chest!

good luck to all!

[priscilla] 09/10/2003 13:44

Excerpt from today's Shares mag, p54, 'Chaucer and Brit Getting Shaky'

'Lavish share printing has been the problem at BRIT. It has raised £194m after expenses since June 2002. This is partly why its return on equity has been poor, at 9.6% compared with 22% and 23% expected this year at Amlin and Atrium. Last week's sale by Fidelity of 10 million shares in Brit leaves the fund manager with 47 million shares. We can expect a drip feed of further selling. There is no dividend this year at Brit, but for 2004 the consensus is 2p. That onlyleaves modest support.'
Shares says: Lloyd's vehicles have had a great run. Now it pays to play safe. Just for starters, give Chaucer and Brit a wide berth'

[paddyfool] 09/10/2003 09:34

And it is now more than likely trading at a discount to its net asset value....bizarre!

[rambutan2] 08/10/2003 16:17

here here paddyfool. brit has the power.

[rambutan2] 08/10/2003 13:52

can never get it right, overcap/undercap... perhaps he prefers gos! personally, i think i prefer to err on the side of overcap. and surely thats what the institutions would prefer. make them feel safter?

[priscilla] 08/10/2003 13:23

Today's London Evening Standard, page 38.

'Patrick Evershed, the AAA-rated manager of the New Star Select Opportunities unit trust has sold its 700,000 'secret' shares in Lloyd's underwriter Brit Insurance for 78p each, having last year bought at 68p. He says that Brit has overcapitalised and has concerns about its management. (Citywire.co.uk)'

[rambutan2] 08/10/2003 12:37

and on the subject of bullish conditions, page 3 of the ft today has interesting piece about a survey by marsh showing employers and their increasing liability risk.

[paddyfool] 08/10/2003 12:20

Brit have aquired the renewal rights to the Creechurch property portfolio which currently writes £40 million per annum and is with immediate effect supplying current capacity to this line at Creechurch. The staff supporting this busioness will move to Brit, cant find out the profitability but as I recall talking to the Senior underwriter there about twelve months ago he was very bullish about their property portfolio. Looks like good news!

[paddyfool] 04/10/2003 10:59

Preety glad tosee the conviction that Eckert has, he is clearly much closer to the truth than Altium and has significantly more flesh on the table. The invsting houses usually have other agendas when being less than supportive of one player.

[azalea] 04/10/2003 08:36

Adding Mr Eckert's most recent purchase - 500k @ 68.5p to his 3,650,000 @ 80.2p in June, gives an average of 78.8p. That leaves a 10% rise before he even breaks even. Clearly, he appears to have every confidence in making a profit on his investment. Prior to that he bought approx 500k in 0ct 02 @ 64p.

Depending on the price at the time of the annual results, either he and other members of the board, or Altium are going to have considreable egg on their faces. Talk is cheap, money usually has the last word!

[paddyfool] 03/10/2003 14:06

Food for thought...
Lets assume that the second half earns out at £60-70 million. This would in effect add 6-7p to Nett Asset value which was 68.4p a share at half year. Lets say that 2004 earns them £170 million. which is the equivalent of further 18p on Nett Asset value. So by January 2005 NAV could be around 95p.

Currently they and other non-distressed ILVs are trading between 100-150% of nav. At some point this should move up so lets assume a future trading range of 130-180%, historically this has been as high as 300%. So in the brave future world it is possible to believe that in early 2005 this could be trading in the range of £1.25-1.90. You can see why the boss has bought an additional 500,000. On the range of probabilities he is safe unless there is a hole in the books and his personal buying strongly suggests there is not, or there is a major unplanned/reinsured event.

However they are all making their capital work on a return of 20%+ turning into 30%+ in 2004. 2004 is now seen as being potentially the best ever year in the market. This to the point that all the above guesses are capable of being exceeded, what might happen for example if the investment climate were to improve? Its worthy of note that a fair view insureres have stated that they are moving some funds back into equities.

[paddyfool] 02/10/2003 19:48

Nil, this lot should do very well in the mid term. Shares mag are I am afraid full of s@@t. The second half earnings of brit should be broadly twice the first half due to the earnings pattern. By the time we get to November I expect the ILVs to have started a steep upwards turn, the only major problem is Goshawk.An ugly drawn out demise will not be good, a quick clean death or turnround would help I fear neither is likely.

[gnik] 02/10/2003 17:39

Big turnover today

[nil pd] 02/10/2003 13:43

Another director buys is very good news. 'Share' mag has IMO a very poor track record on buys, ergo wouldn't trust their sells.

[gardenboy] 02/10/2003 10:18

if you want a div buy Chaucer (over 4%) - cheaper than any other ILV and in a position to comfortably pay a decent dividend unlike the rest. CHU currently trades roughly par to NAV.

[priscilla] 02/10/2003 10:05

in 'Shares' mag today:

With a consolidated deficit of £59.3 million, BRIT Insurance (BRE) is unable to pay a dividend for the half year. In fact, investors should not expect one until the end of 2004 warns Altium, which has a sell recommendation on the stock at 70p.

'BRIT has expressed an interest to return cash to its shareholders if it is not able to find adequate underwriting returns. Returning cash to stakeholders is only shareholder value enhancing if the shares are trading at a discount,' says Altium. According to the analysts' forecasts, the shares are still trading at a premium.

In comparison, rival Amlin (AML) has, on less than half the asset base of BRIT, recently produced more than twice the profits. Altium says buy Amlin at 136.5p.

[rambutan2] 02/10/2003 09:55

director buy at 68p.

[nil pd] 02/10/2003 04:46

Speaking with a FTSE 250 Director recently - says - there is no justification for the daily pridcce movements (most anyway) of any comompany. Gives me a lot of reassurance except convcerning the activities of the MMs and who they are ooperating in coincert with. Hacing trouglr typing to night and need to make some coherence later, have been in US for a few days and am loodby tried. Still believe the nect few days will reveal all...paddyfool, you have a grip on things wha are toyur thougts? This stock needs patience (not the kind that doctors want to give attention to)and above all faaith and commmitment. yOU GOTT IT! Long term is the only way.

Allt he indications are good. Ask yourself why not be inversted in this
pS Not drunk, am suffering vertigo, It's a dman oproblme from time to time with time zone chnages and migraines. \Kcuf! 65p tomorrow??

The blocks are higher here but i cAN'T OPEW MTHE WINDOWS!!.

Not making self clear - dont WANT 65p but it looks like it amyhit hat before 70-2p. Would lovbe some thoughts from chatrt readerrs (damn just cant hit the keys..)

[gnik] 01/10/2003 18:27

Heavy selling again today, when will it stop

[nil pd] 30/9/2003 04:41

Why does this happen when I'm out of contact...?

The pattern doesn't make sense. Adds up to a very big seller who needs the money. Don't think it's anything wholly negative about BRE, except its impact on the share price. It does of course present an opportunity for a big fish, such as mentioned by azalea....

If anything new is in play, hopefully the next few days will reveal what.

[daot] 30/9/2003 00:00

Does any one know why the sell quantity limits to 2500???

[azalea] 29/9/2003 20:48

As a pure guess only (no evidence), today's fall might prove to be the result of a further sale of shares by Amvescap, or, a another, who might be seeking to balance its books, if not shoring up its own share price.

Other than that, in light of the excellent results and future prospects the fall is perverese and can have no genuine justification. Disappointing, but will recover, if not, then a bid could well materialise.

[paddyfool] 29/9/2003 19:23

beats me! other than the sales.