Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[warranty] 13/8/2018 10:33

Obviously a kick up from the good Clarkson update this morning?

[mount teide] 07/8/2018 16:25

edmund - a year ago were no US sanctions crafted to close down Iranian oil exports - the overwhelming majority of which has historically left the country on very large crude carriers.

The mere threat of Iranian sanctions has been probably been responsible for much of the downside pressure on tanker charter rates in 2018.

Having spent a month in Basra, Iraq and Kharg Island, Iran on shipping related matters as a much younger man: places where the June - August average midday temperature is 40 - 50 degrees centigrade, i have nothing but admiration for anyone that has to live in such places.

[edmundshaw] 07/8/2018 11:16

Hm, "fleet growth is likely to remain a key challenge through at least the end of 2019" - a year ago it was the end of 2018, into 2019. That has been put back a bit.

Still, rates and capacity have to turn in our favour in the end, just need to wait a year more it seems...

[speedsgh] 06/8/2018 16:42

Delivery of new LNG carrier to Uniper Global -

[mount teide] 06/8/2018 10:05

warranty - such has been the collapse in tanker charter rates over the last 2-3 years i suspect drip feeding resources into BMS over the next 12 months could prove very rewarding over a 3 year outlook.

BMS's shipbroking business earns a fixed percentage of each charter contract - so, BMS would see some very serious revenue upside should charter rates return over the next few years to even 50% of where they were in 2016

AIMHO/DYOR

[warranty] 06/8/2018 09:46

Interesting post again MT, could this be a good time to add in BMS in advance of a pick up next year and onwards for the currently depressed tanker market. The dividend is reasonable for now whilst waiting and could pick up quickly with increased profitability.

[mount teide] 30/7/2018 19:07

Spooky - 'Mount Teide, i don't remember you posting that you had 'sold out of Braemar at a small loss and re-invested the proceeds into much more diversified sector leader Clarksons'. You have primarily talked about the fact that they are well positioned for a recovery over the long term. Slight change of tune?'

As mentioned previously, BMS are heavily overweight in the oil tanker and oil service sector - after signs of a positive improvement during last year that sector again fell back to daily rates that were barely one tenth of those achieved in 2015/16. This was why i switched by BMS funds over to a long term position at CKN which is more diversified busienss.


DR2 'In fact teide posted the rosy parts of the latest BMS statement on the CAML thread.'
I posted the elements of the update on the CAML thread that are relevant to CAML - notably the strong performance of the dry bulk sector, in which unfortunately BSM remain very much underweight!

Additionally, i like to see NoN Execs in these type of companies with strong shipping/ports backgrounds - Clarkson's over the years has greatly benefitted from having such people on the Board - BMS needs to do more in this respect as their business performance is increasingly suggesting that their current Board is technically and operationally under qualified.

[neilyb675] 30/7/2018 18:42

Halifax sharedealing

[psync] 30/7/2018 13:49

What broker do you use? I haven't had my dividend yet. I'm with IG and they usually send it out next working day but sometimes it can take longer, which makes me anxious. I should look into changing as I'm not into spreadbetting or CFDs and they've stated that they don't really want infrequent buy-and-hold investors, as evidenced by their recently added inactivity fee. It's a shame as I like the platform a lot and the costs are still very low, even with the inactivity fee.

[neilyb675] 30/7/2018 12:34

Divi reinvested at 260p

[neilyb675] 28/6/2018 12:33

Double lol

[danieldruff2] 28/6/2018 12:10

In fact teide posted the rosy parts of the latest BMS statement on the CAML thread... hmm!

[spooky] 28/6/2018 08:02

Mount Teide, i don't remember you posting that you had 'sold out of Braemar at a small loss and re-invested the proceeds into much more diversified sector leader Clarksons'. You have primarily talked about the fact that they are well positioned for a recovery over the long term. Slight change of tune?

[danieldruff2] 27/6/2018 17:22

They have drifted the last couple of years for sure. Perhaps someone will scoop them up in the post-Brexit slaughter of British business.

[shalder] 26/6/2018 16:26

Also if QS has something to say, imo it is worth listening. Sold at a small loss.

[mount teide] 26/6/2018 16:05

Braemar's performance since the BDI bottomed in Feb 2016 and entered a new shipping/commodity cycle recover phase has been characterised by two issues.

Firstly, the management decision to go heavily overweight in the oil tanker sector and service sector in 2014/15 - the market crashed shortly afterwards and is still only in the very earliest stage of recovery.

Secondly, this is a Shipping and Ports sector company with no one as far as i am aware at Board or Senior Management level having any first hand senior management experience or professional qualifications for either industry.

I wrote back in January:

'The bulk carrier, container and LNG tanker spot markets have performed strongly in H2, while the oil tanker spot market has been much weaker by comparison.

As BMS is overweight the oil tanker sector and the equally weak oil service sector, the market may be speculating on a weaker H2/2017 result than Clarkson's which has a more diversified shipbroking exposure.

This scenario continues to play out in comparative valuations, with Clarksons breaking out to set a number of new all-time highs while Braemar continues to weaken.

A tale of two shipbrokers!

Being heavily overweight in the oil tanker and oil service sector did BMS no favours after tanker rates weakened in mid 2016 just as a surge of new capacity hit the sector.

The comparison with sector heavyweight Clarksons more diversified shipbroking approach is stark.

Since mid 2016 the relative share price performance is astonishing considering they both operate in the same industry:

-40% BMS
+75% CKN '

As posted last year, i sold out of Braemar at a small loss and re-invested the proceeds into much more diversified sector leader Clarksons, after feeling Braemar's management were likely to continue to underperform as a result of poor decision making.

It seems nothing much has changed since to the prospects of the oil tanker and service sector and composition of the management to suggest a turnaround in their fortunes relative to Clarksons.

[zho] 26/6/2018 15:20

>>Can anyone post a link to the Arnold article?>>

[speedsgh] 26/6/2018 15:16

Can anyone post a link to the Arnold article?

There has also been -ve feedback on Twitter from the BMS AGM by Mark Bentley who is a highly respected investor & director of ShareSoc -

[kiwihope] 26/6/2018 14:54

This may have taken quite a hit from the Arnold article. I know ex-div occurred last week but around 5% fall today...

[ugandalad] 26/6/2018 08:35

got Out before his followers could do the same or did I get that wrong.

[muffster] 25/6/2018 21:46

Did u guys read Prof Arnold's report on the agm ? If not then its a very sad state of affairs and he sold after it.His newsletter is deep value on here