Some fairly chunky votes against a number of the AGM resolutions. |
An encouraging AGM statement, leaving room for upgrades as the year progresses.
Consensus of Cavendish's and Edison's forecasts for this year is 40.5p EPS, which puts BMS on a current year P/E of only 7.4. |
AGM Statement
Braemar Plc, a leading provider of expert investment, chartering and risk management advice, provides the following trading update ahead of its Annual General Meeting to be held later today.
Further to the update provided in the FY24 results announcement issued on 23 May 2024, the board is pleased to report that the Group has continued to trade well and that performance in FY25 to date is in line with expectation1. The Group remains focused on its stated growth strategy and the board looks to the year ahead and beyond with confidence. Company compiled consensus as at the date of this announcement: FY25 revenue of £152.7m and FY25 underlying operating profit (before acquisition-related expenditure) of £18.2m. |
Current global container freight rates ! |
Both ship rerouting and capacity issues continue to impact sea freight costs !
"Shoe Zone announces that, further to its AGM Statement released on 12 March 2024 it has continued to experience cost pressures associated with container prices due to a reduction in the supply of shipping vessels and the continuation of a reroute away from the Suez Canal. As a result, container prices have risen significantly over the last six months." Shoe Zone, Trading Update, 2 July 2024 |
 Sea freight rates spike with peak season on the horizon
transinfo: 7.06.2024
Eye-opening increases in sea freight rates have been ongoing for over two weeks, coming as something of a bolt from the blue. Rising demand, an insufficient supply of ships, and a shortage of containers at major export ports in Asia have contributed to rising prices in recent weeks. In the first week of June, prices went crazy again and returned to double-digit increases. In the latest reading of Drewry’s WCI index from June 6, from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the price was already $6,032 – 14% more week-to-week. From China to Genoa, the increase was even greater at 17%, up to $6,664 per container.
On routes from Asia to North America, increases were more moderate – 6% to New York and 11% to Los Angeles. In total, the global WCI index increased by 14% to $4,716. Nevertheless, the increase recorded over the last two months brings to mind the gigantic jumps in rates during the pandemic. Looking at the route from Asia to Northern Europe (currently over $6,000), on April 1, the Drewry index for this direction was $3,349! Year on year, the current rate to Rotterdam is 315% higher and to Genoa by 214%. The summer peak season is just getting started, which will maintain high demand for transport capacity. However, these capacities are almost exhausted. |
Comment today from SCSW message board FWIW.....
"BenHazz 8:35am
Got chatting to a guy working in freight yesterday during the England game as it was so drab. He of course mentioned the red sea but also said that more and more freight ships are being used between China and South America, the added competition leaving less availability for China to Europe which is keeping costs higher. No idea how accurate his comments are as I'd never met him before in my life, and know very little about the sector and its workings. He was confident however that freight costs would not be coming down any time soon..." |
FY24 Final Dividend
The AGM will be held on Wednesday, 3 July 2024. Subject to shareholder approval at the AGM, the FY24 final dividend will be paid on 9 September 2024 to shareholders who are on the register at the close of business on 2 August 2024, with a corresponding ex-dividend date of 1 August 2024. |
Interesting post elsewhere re an industry commentary on rising freight rates:
"FEWB MARKET UPDATE
04 JUNE 2024
FAR EAST WEST BOUND RATES SPIKING
Further to our May 13th update, the situation in Asia continues to deteriorate.
Demand is outstripping supply causing ocean rates to surge and space on vessels sailing towards Europe is becoming even scarcer.
This problem is compounded further with a lack of empty 40ft High Cube containers, particularly in Northern China.
Industry analysts are predicting ocean freight rates for a 40ft to reach $10,000 by July, although this is only a prediction, we are seeing all carriers increase their rates on an almost daily basis now.
Today ALL carriers are >100% booked and therefore rolling containers, with various carriers confirming they already have roll pools in excess of 5000 containers.
With the surge in demand and the roll over containers this is compounding the problem further as the main gateway ports are becoming overwhelmed, with vessel berthing times increasing further and effecting schedule reliability.
There is no doubt that these issues are not going to be resolved in the short term and we would continue to encourage all of our customers to book as far ahead as possible, with a minimum of 4 weeks notice.
Future Forwarding will do everything we can to mitigate the problems and delays, but please understand this is an industry problem beyond our control.
We will continue to keep you informed with any developments and once again, thank you for your continued support.
With kind regards
Future Forwarding Co. Ltd" |
Well, it looks like BMS didn't make the Small Cap cut this quarter after all. That web page has been pretty accurate in the past.....typical! |
Per the link below the FTSE index changes are announced tonight (after the close). Again per the link, BMS are still due to be promoted tonight to the Small Cap Index: |
From today's Times - Maersk "raises its profit guidance for second time in four weeks amid rise in freight costs":
"The Danish shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk lifted its profit guidance for the second time in the past four weeks on Monday on the back of rising freight prices amid disruption to the global network.
Maersk said that a surge in demand for goods caused by businesses replenishing inventories before the busy Christmas trading period had added to existing pressure on global supply chains.
This dynamic has pushed up freight rates sharply in recent weeks, boosting the finances of the world’s foremost shipping companies."
"A concoction of factors have served to jolt international supply chains over the past year, reigniting a sharp increase in freight rates after they surged during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic."
"Attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea by Houthi rebels in response to Israel’s offensive in Gaza have forced vessels to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, elongating transit times.
Strong demand for tradeable goods from businesses seeking to fill stocks ahead of the busy festive period has collided with already strained supply chains. Businesses typically source their Christmas stock months in advance."
"According to Drewry, the supply chain advisers, the average cost of a container has climbed to $4,226, above the peak reached in the immediate aftermath of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Analysts at Jefferies, the broker, said: “Container freight rates have surged across the majority of global routes recently due to capacity constraints, healthy underlying demand and a head start to peak season.”
Deutsche Bank analysts said that Maersk had only highlighted all “the trends that we already know such as strong demand, Red Sea disruption and port congestion”." |
Yes, gone for now are the days of "Just In Time" management...it's now stock up while you can! |
Having read that the Baltic Exchanges' main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose again on Friday marking a 7.7% rise in May, I also note this new article on the BBC:
"Shops rush for Christmas stock as shipping costs surge"
"Container prices, which peaked in January and briefly declined, have rebounded sharply in recent weeks"
"Mr Glynn explained that the spot rate - the current price for immediate delivery of goods - has dramatically increased in recent weeks from $4,500 to $7,500 (£3,500 to £5,900).
"This makes a massive impact on big bulky items, especially those that have low margins such as furniture, barbecues, and kitchen appliances," he said."
"Disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthi movement have limited the global supply of shipping space and containers."
"Shipping costs have soared as a result. The average cost of shipping a 40ft container now exceeds $4,000, a 140% increase from 2023, according to freight market tracker Xeneta.
Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, said that importers have learned many lessons from the pandemic including that "the most straightforward way to protect supply chains is to ship as many of your goods as you can as quickly as possible".
"That is what we are seeing with some businesses telling us they are already shipping cargo for the Christmas period - in May," he said." |
Edison have just released an update note after the prelims.
They've increased their target price to 535p (from 500p).
They forecast 42.8p EPS this year, rising to 46.9p EPS next year. That's a P/E of 6.7 at 288.5p, falling to 6.1.
There's also a 14p dividend, rising to 16p - a 4.8% yield. Net cash at £2.9m at Feb'25 is then forecast to rise to £8.3m:
Conclusion:
"Valuation: Lifted from 500p/share to 535p
Braemar enters FY25 with an orderbook that is up 47% y-o-y to $82.6m and strong
fundamentals, with tanker rates remaining robust and depressed dry cargo rates
set to recover. Furthermore, the global fleet continues to grow, while at the same
time the existing fleet continues to age, implying pent up renewal demand that will
need to be addressed within the foreseeable future. Our forecasts are largely
unchanged but we have rolled over the base year for our dividend discount model
(DDM) valuation, which leads to an increase from 500p to 535p/share." |
Braemar (BMS) Full Year 2024 results presentation - May 2024
Braemar CEO, James Gundy, CFO, Grant Foley and COO, Tris Simmonds present the group’s results for the year ended 29 February 2024, followed by Q&A.
Watch the video here:
Or listen to the podcast here: |
Finncap have increased their target price to 392p (from 385p).
They forecast 44.93p underlying EPS this year (38.1p EPS fully diluted), a P/E of 6.6 at 294.5p. And a 14p dividend, i.e a divi yield of 4.8%.
They note that "these are conservative forecasts, reflecting the current stable business operations, and do not assume the addition of a significant number of experienced broking teams or the impact of future M&A. Obviously these are core elements of the growth strategy, providing potential upside to our forecasts."
They summarise:
"Outlook.
The worldwide fleet remains low by historic levels and seaborne trade continues to grow, providing a positive outlook for the business, notwithstanding normal cyclical movements in individual shipping sectors. Various events around the world have led to increased voyage distances, placing further supply pressure on the worldwide fleet. Braemar ended FY24 with a strong order book and reports a positive start to FY25. The strategy remains to grow market share and expand the business by adding new broking desks or adding to existing ones, and via potential M&A should the right targets emerge and make a good fit with Braemar.
Our DDM valuation analysis implies a target price of 392p (385p previously), a potential 29.4% upside. At the current 303p, the FY25E P/E (underlying EPS) is 6.7x (8.0x adjusted diluted), with an EV/EBITDA (underlying) of 4.4x and our forecast 14p dividend provides a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%." |
Impressive turnaround today.
And good to see the CEO buying another almost £20k of shares - he now owns 778,765 shares so has quite an incentive. |
1pvh r.e. dividend. The date isn't listed. It will presumably be September or October depending on when the AGM is. |
CEO share puchase:- |
Blue by the end of the day? |
And off we go
good point re divi, I couldn't find it either |
Can't seem to see the dividend payment date?Can anyone assist? |
Not sure I agree, they are stating the facts, the forward order book is the forward order book, as long as they are consistent each year in how they present it, if they are then not a problem
Exceptionals esp the "investigation" of over £2m should hopefully be history
Net Cash still despite all that, should grow this year, making the EV/EBITDA ratio even lower, if management are not up to it, an acquirer will take a look IMO...
The one I do have an issue is such a big forex loss....surely the CFO should be hedging with that sort of risk?
DYOR |
All seems to designed to egg things up. Unnecessary and very easy to spot IMO. |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
