B.p. Marsh & Partners Share Discussion Threads

[tresham] 28/4/2021 08:42

I suppose directors can't sell before results.

[tresham] 26/4/2021 10:28

Just can't buy any shares. Surely Marsh could sell some?

[its the oxman] 22/4/2021 15:18

Someone taking an interest here at last. Plenty of upside undet 300p

[yf23_1] 08/4/2021 19:52

Its doing its particle thing at the moment so I expect a straight trajectory before it returns to its wave characteristic.
Of course, us observing it may affect the outcome !

[rmillaree] 08/4/2021 19:16

Something up with the muons perhaps?
I guess if this shoots up over 400p that would be proof that it is the muons at play and that the standard model needs rewriting.

[yf23_1] 08/4/2021 12:50

The wave/particle duality of the BPM share price LOL !

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 11:03

Starting to move today 280p offered. Should be an easy ride over 300p given what wider markets have done recently.

[its the oxman] 01/4/2021 21:08

Tempted to recycle some profits into bpm, looks cheap and left behind but it's just the wait till the next newsflow and nav update.

[its the oxman] 26/2/2021 11:58

I will keep dreaming....

[its the oxman] 26/2/2021 11:56

And if Nexus ipo happens the upside should be more.

[its the oxman] 26/2/2021 11:48

Who knows but would like to see nav near 450p come Oct interims and c.15% discount. Putting at least another 100p on current share price. We will see.

[squeamish1] 26/2/2021 11:04

hi thirty, yes that's right, I think I was the only buy yesterday at 271 but someone's busy this morning - not me though, I've finished building my stake now, been buying between 240-270 since the summer but cash is short. Will re-organise come April and the new tax year and if still sub 300p will buy more.

20% discount to NAV should be achievable I think, that's my basic rationale but the growth story of the specialist insurance industry and rating environment right now puts a bit of heat under it so should hopefully see the NAV grow and discount shrink for a double whammy.

[thirty fifty twenty] 25/2/2021 16:37

hi squeamish - totally agree with you analysis.
noticed there were buys going through today so guessing that was you topping up!

given strong rate markets can only see NAV increasing... say to 430p would be 8% rise
the market for IFA's is also full of acquisitions which will underpin the value there.

i think the Aussie's will take over the rest which will give Brian a nice exit route too.

my target (without takeover) is 20% discount to NAV i.e. 340p after next results
and one even has the company saying it would buy back its won shares if it could!!

the rise wont ever be massive (unless the bid does come),
but for decent upside and i'd have thought very limited downside,
i've not seen any better bets in the insurance sector.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoLBPM is in my portfolio

[squeamish1] 25/2/2021 16:06

Best market for specialist insurance in decades and MGAs with capacity behind them are in prime position for the upside; taking a % of premium, taking no underwriting risk, is a great business model to have when prices are rising. Plus more and more new capital turning up in the market who will need distribution.

Lots of upside here; the stake in Nexus alone could be worth close to the current market cap. Kicking myself I didn't get in sub 200p but sub 300p is still good value I believe. Might be a 3-5 year time horizon for realisation however so only for the patient.

[riverman77] 09/2/2021 13:15

That's right they are mostly MGAs/brokers so they won't be taking insurance risk on to their balance sheets. I personally prefer an investment company to focus on the sectors they know really well, rather than a more generalist approach, so fine with the heavy insurance weighting.

[tresham] 09/2/2021 13:09

Thank you for the comments.
Insurance is an exciting business but I don’t think any of the investees are underwriters. So is quite safe although all in insurance. So yes concentrated in what they know best.
Surely if Marsh died, (God bless him) and the management twiddled their thumbs the investments would continue to grow. However, they have many future investments prospects which is an additional compounding growth factor.
I think growth is compounding starting at 5% and now up to 12%
I hope the dividend will be restored.
With any luck, if there is sufficient buying at this level, Marsh can unload some of his shares then the company can buy back shares?

[riverman77] 09/2/2021 12:52

The update itself sounded very promising. Nexus in particular seeing rapid growth and very much the jewel in the crown. From memory this makes up 30% of the portfolio. Would expect this to IPO at some point at a potentially good uplift. The rest of the portfolio is mostly in other MGAs and insurance brokers so really well placed to benefit from the hardening insurance market, which many say is the best they've seen in 2 decades.

[peter27] 09/2/2021 12:23

They could do a buy back if he sold some shares to maintain his %. I believe there are also AIM restrictions relating to the T/O of minimally traded shares which then restricts the number of shares which can be repurchased. ie danger of a false market or ramping the price. Don't forget that the law was changed comparatively recently to allow companies to buy their own shares. It used to be illegal.

[shaker44] 09/2/2021 12:13

Maybe they want it out there that they would if they could! Or they see advantage in indicating that BPM could take it private. Bait for Private Equity investors?
What is certain is that the RNS has a purpose....

[skyship] 09/2/2021 11:59

Incidentally, can anyone make any sense of this extract from today's RNS?

If they can't buyback, why have the strategy to do so? If they can't buyback, how did they manage to do so in 2019?
================================

Share Buy-Backs

As has been stated previously, the Group has a strategy for undertaking small market buy-backs of its shares at times when the discount to Net Asset Value ("NAV"), based upon the most recently announced NAV, is greater than 15%.

For the avoidance of doubt, notwithstanding that the discount to NAV at which the Group's shares are currently trading is greater than 15%, the Group repeats that it is currently restricted in its ability to buy back shares since, given that Brian Marsh, together with persons acting in concert with Brian Marsh for the purposes of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "City Code"), has an interest in approximately 41.85% of the Group's voting rights, any such purchase of shares would result in an obligation for Brian Marsh to make a general offer for the Group in accordance with Rule 9 of the City Code.

[shaker44] 09/2/2021 11:57

On balance I feel more comfortable with ocl for value/spread of risk

[skyship] 09/2/2021 11:52

riverman - agreed - 31%. Sorry, I was just quoting back the figure tresham had stated. Should have checked the figure in his statement first. Mea Culpa.

[peter27] 09/2/2021 11:48

The other problem is that because of the worldwide nature of the investments which require more time to log their results together with the lag in insurance returns, all the information they provide is typically six months old. BPM confirmed this to me at an AGM some years ago.

[riverman77] 09/2/2021 11:37

This is on a 30% discount, versus a typical discount of 15-20% so looks good value in my view. The previous posters should check their maths.

[skyship] 09/2/2021 11:37

tresham - where to begin?

# Brian Marsh is the controlling shareholder with over 50% of the equity; and has no interest in paying out dividends to outside shareholders, therefore:

# The yield is a paltry 0.8%; and still only 1.7% on a fully restored dividend

# A 20% discount is about the average for PE trusts

# The long-term growth back to 2005 is c7.4%pa compound. Only in the recent 3yrs have they managed to get up to the average PE trust levels

# Without Simon Thompson's constant tipping in the Investors Chronicle, these would likely be 15% lower