B.p. Marsh & Partners Share Discussion Threads

[retsius] 06/4/2019 13:04

Some very good posts on here which relates for once without a debate about Brexit!
(See Lloyds for up to date state of the nation commentaries but absolutely nothing about the banking business)

I am slightly under water with the current share price here but hope it will perk up as we approach the annual statement.
In my opinion the two jewels in their portfolio are LEBC and NEXUS,and the one juicy future prospect of LEBC floating.This has been put back due to Brexit uncertainties but may still reward patient holders as their figures will be higher this current financial year and so the float pricing when it happens will reflect that , so there may be a silver lining for holders even with the delay.

I should have sold last August when it touched 330p but.....
The other negative here is the spread buying and selling which would put many off.

Skyship, point taken, on performance,but hoping for some better news with the finals. I would like to see how their American investments are, and if they are making any money and if so, how much. That is all a bit vague in previous updates.

Simon T. :always good to have a serious financial commentator following a stock. For me,that fact is a huge deciding factor when buying shares. However investors have to follow , read , and decide before buying shares for themselves.
R.

[peter27] 06/4/2019 12:24

This is a long term investment into private equity insurance and should be treated as such. Never to be a substantial investment but part of a well diversified portfolio. In effect when you buy shares in this company you are investing in the knowledge and expertise of entrepreneurs who are running their own brokerages and livelihoods. BP Marsh receive very many finance applications and reject most of them. I write as an independent shareholder for the last six years during which time my holding has doubled in value. I'm one of very few who attend the AGM. Come and join me, meet the directors and ask them anything you want about the business and the investments. Each RNS contains as a footnote a large amount of information about the company and there aren't many that do that.

[skyship] 06/4/2019 11:11

"I'd love to understand what the catalyst might be for a step change in the market's appreciation of this one."

The problem here is that you've had the catalyst, actually two.

The first was the adoption by Simon Thompson whose regular, perhaps too regular, tips and re-tips have instigated and sustained a rise from the 200p level.

The second is the Discount Control Mechanism (DCM) of the at first 20% discount buyback level, subsequently uprated to a 15% discount level. This is a laudable initiation for a company with very small "free equity" base. If it weren't so small then the book would be stuffed with sellers.

Why? Because, as I've stated in the past, the claimed long-term performance growth of 12%pa is a con as most of the above average performance was way back in the past when BPM was a private company. The actual stats since their IPO in 2006 shows a compound growth of just 7.1%, with most of that growth in the past couple of years thanks to Hyperion & Nexus.

Couple that substantially below sector average growth to the miserly 1.7% yield and you can perhaps understand why the share price has stalled. Another good reason is that controlling shareholder Brian Marsh has turned into a tap seller as he wishes to “diversify his assets”.

I admit I sold too soon here; but there is no way I would now seek to re-join.

Far better value elsewhere in the two "Assets at a Discount" sectors of Private Equity & Real Estate. Yields too!

[danielbird193] 05/4/2019 02:34

I agree it's not an exciting share. However, I fully expect it to do well over the longer term based on fundamentals of the portfolio companies.

I think Brian's baby is just a bit too small and a bit too niche for most analysts. Simon T attempts a decent 'sum of the parts" valuation every few months and that generally gives the share price a boost, albeit sometimes a temporary one.

I'd love to understand what the catalyst might be for a step change in the market's appreciation of this one. The LEBC flotation may have had that effect but, as we know, has been l kicked down the road by a few months at least.

I'll continue to hold for now.

[discodave4] 04/4/2019 22:46

Unfortunately not held for that long though and still a smidge underwater........c 11% over a year doesn't get my blood pressure moving too much though :)More patients required I guess.

[steve3sandal] 04/4/2019 22:16

The longer term chart has this up 200% over the last 6-7 years. I’m expecting it to grind higher on the fundamentals which appear to me to have a good risk reward balance. I find that quite exciting.

[discodave4] 04/4/2019 21:46

No offence chaps but this is one boring share!....does nothing. ?

[retsius] 26/3/2019 14:10

Steve
Thought about as much as a director sold not long ago. This was mooted by ceo of LEBC last year,so no real surprise the float was pulled.

Good news is the profits should grow this year and float price should reflect that increase.

Bad news,not a lot until June Finals.
R.

[steve3sandal] 25/3/2019 20:43

LEBC IPO is being postponed due to the distraction caused by Brexit (not suggesting we’re leaving, it’s just called Brexit now)!!
Brief article in FT Advisor

Potential for a short term higher price discovery is deferred but not a big issue.

[retsius] 22/2/2019 15:46

Turnover 50k with 4/1 buys.
Some leaked news?

[discodave4] 12/2/2019 20:33

steve Makes sense, but not too certain they have dropped the ask, don't have level 2 either so not certain.Thanks

[steve3sandal] 12/2/2019 20:19

DD4, I share your angst but there might be a perfectly rational explanation. In another of my illiquid holdings MMs routinely mark down the price to attract buyers and bid it up to attract sellers in order to balance their books. I don’t have level 2 access as I’m too tight but someone who has might have a better view of the bids and offers either side of the share price

[retsius] 07/2/2019 15:50

Yes, what can I say?


Trading Statement contained nothing new and as such was 'a non event' apart from giving some reassurance in these troubled financial times.What we need is news Lebc is going to have an IPO!

Dividend showed disappointingly no increase.

I would like to know if the American assets are making any profits? The opening statement 'pleased to inform 'is a positive sign.

Some good observations from bloggers with opinions which met my own, we will have wait for ST to pronounce next week(?)on the current state of BPM.

I checked and whilst I am not an expert, a director can buy before 'trading statements' although that is slightly frowned upon.GLA.
R.

[danielbird193] 07/2/2019 09:24

I'll need to remind myself of the details of the management incentive scheme from last year's remuneration report, but there was a stark contrast in today's report between the 1,461,302 shares held in the employee benefit trust (capital potentially given away to employees) versus the 28,573 shares held in treasury after buy-backs (capital returned to shareholders).

I'm all for incentives, but a company needs to balance the decisions it makes in the interest its staff and management with the decisions made in the interest of shareholders.

Other than that it was a reassuring if unspectacular update. Share price doesn't seem to have moved at all which underlines the fact that there was almost no new information in this update whatsoever. Oh well, "no news is good news" as they say.

[steve3sandal] 07/2/2019 08:27

I only read again yesterday a Charlie Munger quote...something along the lines of...
Show me an incentive and I’ll tell you the outcome. I fully expect the beneficiaries to ‘earn’ their incentive. I always take a view on more than one possible outcome. I’m rather more interested in them managing this investment company to double NAV...again...Cheers

[discodave4] 07/2/2019 07:49

retsiusI owe you an apology, NAV is officially 333p!.Nexus EBITDA doesn't look particularly good IMO and slight macro concerns no surprise really. Let's see.Still don't see how BM can buy shares 6 days before a trading update, do closed periods only apply to financial statements?.

[spob] 07/2/2019 07:41

i wouldn't use the 321 nav, as the relavent shares are currently non-dilutative

a matter of personal choice

the standard conventional nav is 333p


anyway we now have to wait until June for a nav update, which is a bit daft

[steve3sandal] 07/2/2019 07:32

So, nothing to see, nothing we didn’t already know from earlier RNS, activities etc. That’ll be alright then. Continue to accumulate patiently, share price discount to NAV holds a nice margin of safety, 333p NAV cleared up, but I will be using 321p. Simon Thompson IC will surely be adding up the EBITDA and projecting a potential NAV next week so a likely short term price spike before back to usual. Happy with sleep easy at night stock here. GLA.

[steve3sandal] 07/2/2019 06:56

Their website does say, even now, TU on Thurs 7 Feb. A bit cheeky buying the day before, he had to know what it will say doesn’t he? We will know imminently.

[discodave4] 07/2/2019 02:11

Closed period?, no update tomorrow then I guess.

[retsius] 06/2/2019 09:48

BM buys 20k shares. Hope that is a good sign for tomorrow`s update.
R

[danielbird193] 30/1/2019 09:44

1p jump today, someone's obviously perked up. Will jump a bit further if there's a positive update and a bit more pen-and-inking from Simon in the IC. Fingers crossed.