Bp Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 17/2/2019 17:48

Feb 17, 2019, 10:44am
Oil Prices Are Poised To Move Higher Into April
Great Speculations
Bill Sarubbi
Contributor


Oil is poised to run higher to late April but is likely to first pull back later in this coming week.

Oil had been unusually weak in view of the rising cycles. Price came within 10 cents of breaking the former January 25th low on the 11th but then rallied more than 8% in a week.

Price reached $55.66 which is significant. This is the 38.2% retracement level of the October-December decline. The passing of this barrier will confirm that the situation has changed and that the prior decline is over. The $65 area appears to be a reasonable target by April.



Price is about to exceed the 38.2% retracement level.Cycles Research Investments LLC





These bullish factors remain in force:

Seasonally, oil is entering the most bullish part of any year
The monthly cycle points up
Oil was down from late September through late December. When this has occurred in the past, price has been higher three months later (March) in 17 of 21 cases and has been higher four months later in 18 of 22 cases (April). In other words, if oil sells off in the fourth quarter, the seasonal tendency to rally in March-April is enhanced.

[sarkasm] 17/2/2019 08:24

BP: Renewables to Grow Faster Than Any Fuel in History
file photo
file photo

By MarEx 2019-02-16 20:24:45

BP has published the 2019 edition of its Energy Outlook, exploring the need for more energy to support continued global economic growth and rising prosperity and the need for a more rapid transition to a lower-carbon future.

The Outlook also considers the possible impact of an escalation in trade disputes and the implications of a significant tightening in the regulation of plastics.

Much of the narrative in the Outlook is based on its evolving transition scenario which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past. “The world of energy is changing,” says Spencer Dale, group chief economist. “Renewables and natural gas together account for the great majority of the growth in primary energy. In our evolving transition scenario, 85 percent of new energy is lower carbon.”

The evolving transition scenario predicts:

• Global energy demand increases by around a third by 2040, driven by improvements in living standards, particularly in India, China and across Asia.

• Energy consumed by industry and buildings accounts for around 75 percent of this increase in overall energy demand, while growth in energy demand from transport slows sharply relative to the past as gains in vehicle efficiency accelerate.

• The power sector uses around 75 percent of the increase in primary energy.

• 85 percent of the growth in energy supply is generated through renewable energy and natural gas, with renewables becoming the largest source of global power generation by 2040.

• The pace at which renewable energy penetrates the global energy system is faster than for any fuel in history.

• Demand for oil grows in the first half of the Outlook period before gradually plateauing, while global coal consumption remains broadly flat.

Across all the scenarios considered in the Outlook, significant levels of continued investment in new oil will be required to meet oil demand in 2040. Other scenarios include:

More energy scenario

More energy will be needed to support growth and enable billions of people to move from low to middle incomes. There is a strong link between human progress and energy consumption; the UN Human Development Index suggests that increases in energy consumption of up to around 100 gigajoules (GJ) per head are associated with substantial increases in human development and well-being.

Today, around 80 percent of the world’s population live in countries where average energy consumption is less than 100 GJ per head. In order to reduce that number to one-third of the population by 2040, the world would require around 65 percent more energy than today, or 25 percent more energy than needed in the evolving transition scenario. The increase in energy required over and above the evolving transition scenario is roughly the equivalent of China’s entire energy consumption in 2017.

Rapid transition scenario

The rapid transition scenario is the combination of analyses throughout the Outlook which brings together in a single scenario the policy measures in separate lower carbon scenarios for industry and buildings, transport and power. Doing so results in around a 45 percent decline in carbon emissions by 2040 relative to current levels – which is broadly in the middle of a sample of external projections with claim to be consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals.

The fall reflects a combination of: gains in energy efficiency; a switch to lower-carbon fuels; material use of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage; and, of particular importance in the power sector, a significant rise in the carbon price.

The power sector is currently the single largest source of carbon emissions from energy use. Reductions in carbon emissions from the transport industry in all scenarios to 2040 is relatively small in comparison.

Less globalization scenario

International trade underpins economic growth and allows countries to diversify their source of energy. In the less globalization scenario the Outlook explores the possible impact that escalating trade disputes could have on the global energy system.

“The message from history is that concerns about energy security can have persistent, scarring effects,” said Dale.

The scenario highlights how a reduction in openness and trade associated with an escalation in trade disputes could reduce worldwide GDP and therefore energy demand. Moreover, increasing concerns about energy security may cause countries to favor domestically-produced energy, leading to a sharp reduction in energy trade. The greatest impact is on net energy exporters who suffer a material slowdown in the growth of oil and gas exports.

Single-use plastics ban scenario

The single-largest projected source of oil demand growth over the next 20 years is from the non-combusted use of liquid fuels in industry, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals, driven by the increasing production of plastics. Growth of non-combusted demand in the evolving transition scenario is, however, slower than in the past, reflecting the assumption that regulations governing the use and recycling of plastics tighten materially over the next 20 years.

Given the heightening environmental concerns regarding single-use plastics, the Outlook considers a single-use plastics ban scenario, in which the regulation of plastics is tightened even more quickly, culminating in a worldwide ban on the use of all single-use plastics from 2040 onwards.

In this scenario, oil demand rises more slowly than in the evolving transition scenario. However, the Outlook cautions that the full impact on energy growth and the environment will depend on the alternative materials that may be used in place of single-use plastics. A ban on single-use plastics could result in an increase in energy demand and carbon emissions without further advances in alternative materials and the widespread use of collection and reuse systems.
MarEx Magazine
file photo
Protecting the “Blue Economy”

By Dirk Siebels
alt
"Fix Me!"

By Paul Benecki
The double-ended MF Husavik Ro-Pax ferry is equipped with two SCHOTTEL Rudder EcoPeller ® type SRE 340 CP. Photo Credit: Fjord1
Target 2050

By Wendy Laursen
alt
Worth the Cost

By MarEx
file photo
Cognitive Dissonance

By Sean M. Holt
alt
Winds of Change

By Paul Bartlett

[lollipop1] 15/2/2019 22:11

Would be great for you big holders,i've only a few hundred.

[ny boy] 15/2/2019 21:03

Onwards towards 600p

[philanderer] 15/2/2019 20:44

WASHINGTON (Alliance News) - Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Friday, lifted by recent data showing declines in crude output from OPEC. Traders also felt that Saudi Arabia's decision to increase the level of output reduction will significantly tighten crude supply in the market.

Expectations that the US-China trade talks that will continue in Washington next week will help resolve the disputes between the two largest economies in the world and allay fears about energy demand pushed up oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended up USD1.18, or 2.2%, at USD55.59 a barrel, a near 3-month high.

On Thursday, crude oil prices ended up USD0.51, or about 1%, at USD54.41 a barrel.

For the week, crude oil futures gained as much as 5.4%.

[john3v16] 15/2/2019 19:05

Higher oil price would help

[waldron] 15/2/2019 17:09

FTSE 100
7,236.68 +0.55%
Dow Jones
25,762.26 +1.27%
CAC 40
5,153.19 +1.79%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 65.82 +1.94%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.72 +2.32%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.59 +0.70%

WTI (WTI)
- 15/02 17:46:36
55.42 USD +1.59%

Eni
15.12 +2.30%


Total
49.695 +1.45%

Engie
14.12 +0.57%

Orange
13.425 +1.74%


BP
543.5 +0.48%


Shell A
2,424 -0.12%


Shell B
2,443.5 -0.67%

[ny boy] 15/2/2019 14:09

Will recover quickly from the ex div drop, BP are making tanker fulls of cash daily, as the oil price rises STRONG BUY! imo dyor

[waldron] 14/2/2019 17:30

FTSE 100
7,197.01 +0.09%
Dow Jones
25,434.4 -0.43%
CAC 40
5,062.52 -0.23%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 64.38 +1.21%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.50 +2.35%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.59 +0.47%


WTI (WTI)
- 14/02 18:04:29
54.24 USD +0.48%



Eni
14.78 -0.51%


Total
48.985 +0.15%

Engie
14.04 +0.65%

Orange
13.195 -0.34%



BP
540.9 -1.87%


Shell A
2,427 -1.12%

Shell B
2,460 -1.20%

[philanderer] 14/2/2019 17:29

[ 14 Feb 2019 15:44 ]

LONDON (Alliance News) - Oil major BP PLC on Thursday is expecting oil demand to continue to grow, with a demand for plastic products the main driver.

In its 2019 energy outlook to 2040, BP predicts demand for oil will grow in the first half of the outlook period before then flattening out, while BP expects coal consumption to remain broadly flat.

"Across all the scenarios considered in the outlook, significant levels of continued investment in new oil will be required to meet oil demand in 2040," said BP.

[skinny] 14/2/2019 08:44

Ex dividend day being helped by Brent @$64.56.

[ny boy] 14/2/2019 08:35

Valentines ex div day!

Buy of the century (even from last December!)

[sarkasm] 13/2/2019 20:47

BP PLC BP. HSBC Buy 660.00 Reiterates

[waldron] 13/2/2019 17:44

FTSE 100
7,190.84 +0.81%
Dow Jones
25,520.63 +0.37%
CAC 40
5,074.27 +0.35%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 63.71 +2.07%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.47 +2.84%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.59 -3.83%


WTI (WTI)
- 13/02 18:06:10
54.3 USD +1.59%



Eni
14.856 +0.68%



Total
48.91 +0.24%

Engie
13.95 +0.18%

Orange
13.24 +0.19%


BP
551.2 +1.10%


Shell A
2,454.5 +0.59%


Shell B
2,490 +0.63%

[wbecki] 13/2/2019 12:14

The IEA has left its global demand growth forecast of 1.4M bpd for 2019 unchanged from its last report in January, stating the oil market will struggle to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group's production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. "In 2019 the U.S. alone will grow its crude oil production by more than Venezuela's current output," the IEA added. "In quality terms, it is more complicated."

[philanderer] 13/2/2019 12:01

13th feb HSBC 'buy' .... tp 660p up from 630p

[skinny] 13/2/2019 09:28

Brent trying to hold above $63.

[waldron] 12/2/2019 18:02

FTSE 100
7,133.14 +0.06%
Dow Jones
25,378.84 +1.30%
CAC 40
5,056.35 +0.84%

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 62.73 +1.98%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.44 +1.21%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.67 +1.21%

WTI (WTI)
- 12/02 18:36:34
53.44 USD +2.02%


Eni
14.756 +0.72%



Total
48.795 +0.15%


Engie
13.925 +0.14%

Orange
13.215 -0.68%


BP
545.2 +0.17%


Shell A
2,440 +0.54%


Shell B
2,474.5 +0.59%

[hellscream] 12/2/2019 16:41

whys the market making it easy for traders? we all know this is going 530 on xd.