Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 18/10/2018 16:37

sorry duplicate post

[rm137] 18/10/2018 16:27

Have now had a chance to look at the full Bowleven release (day job getting in the way until now). Have to honest, this isn’t great news really, and I wouldn’t be expecting FID of any project anytime soon.

My reasoning as follows:

1. Drillbit is water saturated, Crowbar is poor permeability relatively thin sands, and there’s an unexpected oil interval that can’t be mapped on seismic. This means low confidence in mapped Resource estimates, that further appraisal is required to confirm reservoir volumes, deliverability and Reserves, and high confidence P90 (1P or 1C) numbers will be low... either that , or you go into a low cost development scheme to mitigate the higher risk on outcomes. But, unmappable horizons have no value in an offshore location...works onshore with low well costs, not offshore.

2. The IM-6 analysis reported implies a contact derived from assuming pressure connectivity between the gas leg in IM-5 and a water leg in IM-6. This is an assumption and carries risk. THere is no data that supports long term reservoir delivery in the IM reservoir.

3. Quote “This is very much a preliminary analysis and is subject to further analysis and interpretation of the data collected during the IM- 6 drilling and logging. Post-well studies are expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2019. Subsequently, the JV partners have agreed to undertake further geological and technical analysis including remapping the identified leads and prospective traps within the Etinde licence area”.

This is the key point - this is not the language that leads to FID anytime soon... instead, this is the language of Resource assessment prior to going to a Farm down exercise to find a more interested developer.....

If I was a betting man (warbaby43), I’d be betting on datarooms being set up in Q2 next year to offload the asset before the licence runs out....
..sorry folks..this isn’t going to work out for Bowleven anytime soon. Buy in fo the long game if you trust COC not to waste the funds in the bank on other investment schemes.

[cyan] 18/10/2018 15:37

Thanks for the numbers warbaby43. I did not note the COC average as mentioned in the conference call.

28p ummmmm, Would COC want/take a fast exit for as low as 40-45p.?

I just do not see them wanting to hang around for investment in field production.

[gunsofmarscapone] 18/10/2018 14:35

Apologies, did exit a while ago however.. the results are ok but now nothing will happen for months, typical O and G share which requires activity to hold up the share price Isn’t anyone else here as concerned as I was about the horrendous politics? Ambazonia etc?

Good Luck anyway.

[pjj71] 18/10/2018 14:12

the market looks like it agrees

[pjj71] 18/10/2018 14:11

Time for Kev to be bought back to the helm... strong sell if he doesn't get re-instated this week.. I can see low teens as a best case otherwise...

[warbaby43] 18/10/2018 13:17

"their 'average' paid share price; whatever that is."

Asserted by Ahmed the Yank, being seemingly from an II, as c28p at around 32.02 in the Conference Call. That would certainly square with my estimate given that COC, while buying some in the thirties, would have bought lots more in the late teens and early to mid twenties.

I largely agree with RM137 on COC's take, though what they probably didn't bank on was the speed at which Hart and his Jock Mafia were evaporating the cash and that it would be down to below $90m by the time they were able to get control. Overall, though, the investment is still underpinned by the cash and while there is still very substantial upside that got downscaled from some of the dizzy heights being floated by the double whammy negatives of the IM-6 410s and 510s.

Lots more analysis and stitching together of data to be done before we get the next Conference Call when it is going to be interesting to hear when FID is now envisaged as being likely.

[cyan] 18/10/2018 12:48

oilretie ,The PR; presentation skills are sadly lacking.

[oilretire] 18/10/2018 12:37

I know it makes no real difference, but it's a bit ridiculous that the flow rates were not bullet pointed at the start of the RNS....

[cyan] 18/10/2018 12:26

"would have some other unshared information."

That's my point; COC invested on the open, declared known data at the time. I do not think they were gambling on the two drills results adding extraordinary value.
The results from the two drills could not be taken for granted.

For them its all about what they can return on their 'average' paid share price; whatever that is.

[warbaby43] 18/10/2018 11:10

Looks like an object lesson in how to sequence and word a Result and Update announcement to ensure a drop in share price.

[cyan] 18/10/2018 10:50

I think the mood , as it is, is that some would bite the hands off anyone offering 45p NOW. One wonders if our larger partners may seek to exploit the moment.

What's COC's bottom line??

[cyan] 18/10/2018 10:47

We have long been thinking a circa 50p take out was the ball park number. One wonders on the possible timescale.
I just do not see COC wanting to be still invested when field development commences.
Surely they will seek an exit long before production.

[nicobellic] 18/10/2018 10:44

The drop in share price surely presents an opportunity for a speculative bid. Lots of talk amongst us about a 60p bid. Could probably acquire for 40/45p at the moment!

[ramayer] 18/10/2018 10:42

Seems nothing but a take out or Feed will help?

[cyan] 18/10/2018 10:39

I agree aalanani1. I am sure COC are as mystified as we are. They recognised the value of the already discovered volumes BEFORE the latest two drills. I remember them paying 34p each for 14 million shares on one occasion.
Would better PR help?

[cyan] 18/10/2018 10:00

"The productivity index in this part of the reservoir is substantially higher than well IE-3, thereby lowering future development risk."

Incredible market reaction to positive flow rates. Why?

[rm137] 18/10/2018 09:58

Encouraging result perhaps, as this is a higher condensate ratio than previous wells. Note of caution though as the sand interval is not so thick.. so the higher well PI is potentially offset by lower volumes. L This result might switch off the FLNG option... but might switch on a fast-track option... small wellhead platforms, multi-phase line to the beach, gas and LPG sold locally, liquids tankers off to oil market..
Mmmm... key to this is NewAge’s next actions

[cyan] 18/10/2018 09:35

"a flow rate of 17.1 mmscftg/d and 8780 bopd on a 56/64'' inch choke."

Wow. Rather impressive; wish the share price performance was too!

[fraserdean] 18/10/2018 09:20

muted response

New Age (African Global Energy) Limited (“New Age”) is pleased to announce as Operator the successful completion of the appraisal campaign in the Etinde field in Cameroon.

The $55 million two-well appraisal programme commenced on schedule on 1st May 2018, with the drilling of well IM-6, which successfully appraised the Intra Isongo section of the field, establishing a lower gas water contact and adding an additional 150-250 bcf of wet gas resources.

The recently completed second well, IE-4, was targeted 2.8 km north west of the discovered IE field, adding resources down dip of the proven IE-3 hydrocarbon contact. Reservoir horizons came in on prognosis, and a 12 meter interval of the well was tested at a flow rate of 17.1 mmscftg/d and 8780 bopd on a 56/64'' inch choke. New Age are currently assessing the hydrocarbon resources in the IE area. The productivity index in this part of the reservoir is substantially higher than well IE-3, thereby lowering future development risk. Well IE-4 was drilled at less than 50 % of the drilling cost of prior wells.

Both wells were drilled safely, without any lost time injury, and were executed under budget. New Age as Operator, and its JV partners will move to the next step of the field development schedule, evaluating options in line with the recently signed gas convention.

David Stoopin, Chief Executive, New Age, said:

“We are pleased with the successful performance of the 2018 appraisal campaign and the results confirming additional resources in the Etinde permit. Discovered resources and future prospective resources on the licence are being reviewed, integrating the new well data into the subsurface model, and we now look forward to the next steps in optimising the development solution on the Block, prior to a development Final Investment Decision.”

[1msn] 18/10/2018 09:19

Off shore energy has reported New age hit pay in etinde probe.hxxps://upstreamonline.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3df299cfb870d7470b892af7b&id=7784fe4d8a&e=0b644ba378

[warbaby43] 15/10/2018 16:46

Plainly RM137, like chartered accountants, engineers are really fun people when it comes to splashing the cash!