Boohoo Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 21/1/2018 19:17

SOS does not need a takeover they are doing very well anyway

[wednesday6] 21/1/2018 17:53

Sos = sosander, fashion start up company

[telbap] 21/1/2018 17:08

No words for that post joules......too much port perhaps?

[it_trader] 21/1/2018 16:03

Are you a moron? ASOS has a market cap of £5.5b

[runthejoules] 21/1/2018 14:49

Oh dear, Midas touch of death. Is this company too big to shoot up 10% on a Midas tip Like a small company?

Was wondering if £sos might be a decent purchase for Boo to make. Boo's audience must certainly be growing up now & they could easily afford it at its current low £20m ish valuation. Any thoughts?

[mauricemonkey] 21/1/2018 11:08

@DiscoDave, I lowballed Boo's potential sales (likely to be closer to £600m), and it was clear I was dealing with ebitda. How much tax will they get back of that 23% as they invest it in capital spending? Also that doesn't take into account cash, assets and debts. Stockopedia currently guides the forward p/e to be 52. However I take your point and will be more careful in future, thanks for the feedback.
FEVR I was clear I got the number from Stocko who updated their TTM figure at the last interims. I don't have a position in FEVR, as detailed on that board, so the Stocko figure I quoted, from a reliable, independent and named source, has nothing to do with my book. To accuse me of falsehood is a bit harsh, what I said, "Stocko says peg is 9", is factually correct (at the time of posting). You gave an alternative view from a different source, no dramas.
I have no major issue with T/A, it can be useful but it's risky to try and trade within the normal daily volatility as it can turn so fast. That was the point I was, clumsily, trying to make.

[kuss1] 20/1/2018 16:56

Think forecast is 65.8x dropping to 41.9x by 2020. It is on that basis that brokers are forecasting a share price 240 to 300.

But Boo has beaten forecasts for the last 2 years so I would expect them to do the same.

I'm expecting revenue north of 600 million with eps over 3p.

But the key question is how many new customers from those stonking social media stats. PLT and NG metrics reaching Boo's. Sales will follow .

[discodave4] 20/1/2018 15:05

85x, forecast 70x......unless I'm mistaken.

[meijiman] 20/1/2018 14:12

Yes I think money has come off the table since the high point last year. Nothing unusual about that. Boo was worth 70x now only 40x! Several other highly valued stocks have done the same eg IQE. Was going to site Fevertree which had dipped down though it's gone up in the last couple of days on takeover talk.

[sogoesit] 20/1/2018 13:15

Talking about results, when is the next news flow?
I make end February as the next milestone based on last year... for a pre-close trading update. Prelims are booked for 25 April.

Over the last 12 months or so a lot has happened, to re-iterate:
- acquisition of Nasty Gal
- insiders sell-down and successful fundraise
- announcement of capex on new automated warehouse
- revenue guidance raised several times; from 60% to 80% to 90%
- net margins dropped a bit then guidance on net margins narrowed positively
- plus other market initiatives like BooHooMan etc.

Result for the share price has been "just" +33% approx over the year (19/01/17 to 20/01/18).
That seems a poor result to me for the guidance and growth. Surely the "margin" contraction can't have that much of an impact? Sure, profitability will suffer as investment in growth takes place but PROFITS themselves, what of them? They must be significantly higher!

But, it's been a roller-coaster which probably indicates no-one really knows what the EPS outcome is going to be for the full year. So the story seems to me to have been one of pricing in the risk (bad outcomes) since the 240s/280s.

From last year my full 2017 year guesstimate for EPS was ball-park 4p. Paying 60x (at the time revenue growth guidance was 60%) that gave me 240p.
With all that's happened in-between, that figure, surely, must now be on the conservative side.
Certainly there's no reason necessarily now to pay 80x or 90x given the reaction every time there's good news but 240p must also be questioned on a reasonable assumption that there has been growth in revenue and profits.
[Brokers/analysts have us at 235, 250, 290 and 300. That is significant consensus (albeit that I think consensus is a dangerous place!)]

Have we gone from irrational exuberance to irrational despair all in one short year?
If I had cash I would be throwing it at this. Unfortunately another siren calls in the short term prohibiting me from accumulating again.
Good luck

[kuss1] 20/1/2018 12:06

shabba,

I disagree on your DTG analysis. Of course people want to get a funeral for as little as possible. That's always been the case. The reason DTG can no-longer get away with high prices is because of the competition. The death market has been over-priced for years.

But this is hardly relevant to Boo, whose price points are at the lower end not the upper end.

Also, the exceptional revenue growth at Boo is impressive to say the least. Last year it was 51%. Very few companies can do that. This year it's compounded to 90% on top (probably come in over that). Boo are looking for 25% as a reasonable target next year. But they seem to start low and then upgrade.

Anyway, I see no reason to sell my shares in Boo on the assumption that there might be a decline in the general economy or if people with reduce their spending on clothes. I will look at the results and decide.

[wintokall] 20/1/2018 11:21

excellent pedi - keep it up - ignore the negatives!

[discodave4] 20/1/2018 11:17

Hi maurice,Talking about people posting things that may lose people money, a few days ago you posted:Revenue is likely to be around £550m.So @ 9.5% margin profit is around 52.5mCurrent Market cap £2.2BnP/E of 40===================================================So let's just ignore interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to get a nice positive PE, truth is it should have been:EBITDA £52.5m, Pre tax profit £39m, tax @ 23% gives eps 2.6p, which at yesterday's close is a PE of 72, that's a looooong way north of 40 isn't it!.By the way have you finished deramping FEVR, with an alleged PEG of 9 (another false bit of data posted by yourself to suit your own book!) following yesterday's rise?.Charts use historical data to try and predict the future share price movement as in many ways do some fundamentals. So it seems that it's okay for you to post up very misleading fundamentals but not okay for a TA expert like pediment to post up their data - pot kettle black springs to mind.DD

[pediment] 20/1/2018 11:07

10.55 Friday

No bear breakout confirmed yesterday, support held. Four hour chart is actually looking slightly positive where a break over 185.00 which would take the price out of the 1 hr downward channel and through its 50ma thus crossing over on the 4hr MACD nicely

[pediment] 20/1/2018 09:42

I made the confirmation points very clear. I am a day trader, thought people might be interested in some TA, apparently not.

[mauricemonkey] 20/1/2018 09:19

If it works for you good.
Putting posts saying it's in a bearish pattern then it rebounds 3% and justifying it by saying you need a minute by minute commentary as a get out clause seems like it was pointless posting - you haven't added anything and maybe helped people lose money.
Good work.
Sure you can try and trade the charts, scalping a few per cent. Problem is you're trying to do it against the professionals, and they've got supercomputers.
Best to get in, and stay imv, less stressful, less risk and still gets good gains.

[pediment] 20/1/2018 08:59

Ah, Maurice, there's none so blind as those who will not see.

I have a sneaking suspicion you're at the wind up so I shall bow out and graciously acknowledge the superiority of the pin and blindfold method and reappraise my trading strategies forthwith.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for opening my eyes to the foolishness of my approach :-)

Many thanks
Pediment/Ionic

[shabbadabbadoo2] 19/1/2018 23:22

And your point about DTY (which I assume you meant).

This again points to lower spending. You cannot avoid a funeral cost. So you look to do it as cheaply as possible.

Answer this - if there is no problem, how did DTY get away with higher prices for years beforehand? The answer is that in the past people could afford it. Now they cannot.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 19/1/2018 23:17

I think BOO has a very good chance of taking substantial market share. Eventually. It is a well run company supplying what the market wants, and has very little required capital spending in the next few years. I really don't think any problem will come from within the company.

That is not my point. My point is that they will not get to their full potential in a straight line (ASC had some huge dips, as did Amazon). It is very likely the same will happen to BOO, in my opinion. A drop in growth will be the cause of any dip.

Let's see 2 things in the upcoming March update:
1. How much they are spending on customer gain/retention (ie, marketing costs);
2. If the growth of revenue is straight line or shows any sign of growth dropping off (a difficult one to calculate accurately, except over huge timescales - which will be of little use).

[kuss1] 19/1/2018 22:24

Also, more instructive is DTG's share price today. Did it decline because fewer people are dying or did it decline because of a declining share of the death market. It's competition that is the killer not spending imo...

[shabbadabbadoo2] 19/1/2018 21:32

Kuss - "You can't compare cpr with Boo. Cpr is at the end of its life. Boo is about 40% into its growth, as a conservative estimate."

My point is that you can. Their businesses are very different and they are at different stages in their life, but the reason CPR is having difficulty has a very big chance of affecting BOO. That reason is lack of consumer spending.

When consumer spending slows down, the first thing people stop buying are big items. Have you noticed last year how new car sales plummetted? Well it looks like new carpets are now feeling the pinch. Watch out for businesses that sell other big ticket items also reporting slow trade - like kitchen sellers, holiday companies, etc - anything that spending is not mandatory. There is recent evidence that high street spending has fallen recently too. There is absolutely no doubt that consumer spending is falling.

And that is where BOO comes in. Clothes are necessary, but going out on the town is not; neither are new clothes every week. If the consumer spending tightens up more (and the Bank of England is getting onto credit card companies to reign in their dodgier lending - like to young people...) then Boo will feel the heat.

I don't think you, or many on this board, appreciate just how hard the BOO share price will be hit if growth slows down substantially. It will be ugly. Very ugly.

[mauricemonkey] 19/1/2018 21:30

So charts don't look at what happened in the past? Interesting.
If they change by the minute, as stated, any point you jump in can be wrong in a minutes time.