Bluejay Mining Share Discussion Threads

[lovewinshatelosses] 16/3/2020 10:24

Hi dhb. A sale is not something we need to worry about too much right now. These are indeed unprecedented times PC. I think the initial sentiment of there being some real bargains around, has turned to a panic where many are now thinking that in fact we could be facing a sustained period of low market index value that is not going to fully remedy within 12-18 months necessarily (who knows, maybe a decade, two decades or more - it would not be the first time in stock market history) - and so the selling recommences.
I know some funds look longer term than that, but fund managers are not going to suddenly be given a pass on their short term targets etc.
All that said, yes, it is indeed good we got that funding in November, but I really hope the authorities stick with the initial timeframe and we remain on track, at least as much as possible.
Anyway, the sun is shining and sitting around fretting is not going to pay dividends, so I am going to switch off for now. Take care all.

[perfect choice] 16/3/2020 09:55

Well all I can say is it was a good job JAY raised £11.5M last November at 10p! Clearly unprecedented times here.

[dhb368] 14/3/2020 01:15

Lwhl, not much chance of this being sold cheaply. Rod McIllree has been very clear on his desire to avoid dilution where possible to maximise shareholder value. He is a significant holder.
He will not sell up early for the same reasons.
I get the impression that he will separate/dispose of Dundas as soon as possible so that he can concentrate on the exploration side of the business.
He doesn't want to run mines, he wants to find them.

[lovewinshatelosses] 13/3/2020 16:44

Hi xclusive. I am certainly worried about predators for several of my current holdings, and if this were also to be at risk, then I too hope you are wrong, as I am not sure the key shareholders would protect the company from going very cheaply in the current climate - by that I mean a number that would represent a significant loss to those with an average around the current year high (sadly me!)
No point dwelling on 'what ifs' I suppose; I have topped up a few times here and elsewhere where I feel that ultimately a pay off will follow. Only time will tell if my positive outlook is justified.
The difficulty now is that so many stocks are looking attractive - and are going to look even more attractive in the coming weeks, assuming the market sell-offs still have plenty of steam left (which I think is virtually certain). With only so much dry powder left, choosing what to further top up, or new stocks to buy, is going to be challenging, especially as I have furthermore tried to ring-fence some funds for potential cash calls in one or two cases, should the worst come to the worst.
Ultimately a first world problem I guess, and not giving me sleepless nights, although it might be a case of more fool me for maintaining a certain calm during this storm! Have a good weekend.

[xclusive2] 13/3/2020 14:09

LWHL,

Everybody will be underwater unless you're shorting the market and i still believe that it's still allowed to go oat times of crisis.

So many companies undervalued and we are looking decidedly cheap to a predator, hope i'm wrong with that line of thinking !

[lovewinshatelosses] 13/3/2020 09:39

A shame we are not seeing at least some small gains in this dead cat bounce today. Not that it is important in the longer term perhaps, but I guess nothing short of material positive news will stop the sinking share price here.

[dhb368] 09/3/2020 11:17

Because the alternatives to Greenland are Africa and Australia?

[kemismelt] 09/3/2020 05:53

Again, RTIT is not the answer to LON:JAY's ilmenite offtake problem! Why would RTIT opt for a much costlier 46.5%TiO2 feedstock from Greenland when they have local ~35%TiO2 captive HemoIlmenite which tgey can easily uprade to 50%TiO2 at the mine site itself?

[xclusive2] 08/3/2020 09:11

SP moved against the market on anticipation of ? Somebody just topping up ? News this week ?

[bscuit] 07/3/2020 19:17

And we’re moving out of winter working constraints....

[luffness] 06/3/2020 22:32

Yes you should just stick with Alba - a much better betYawn.....

[dhb368] 06/3/2020 17:04

Who would have thought it!I added some JAY and then some LGEN (to balance my higher risk small cap purchase) and guess which one has risen... :)

[perfect choice] 06/3/2020 16:33

JAY up 5% on a market heavy down day, some decent and consistent buying it looks today.

[kemismelt] 06/3/2020 13:33

Greenland is young in the ilmenite mining world! After a year's study I realised it would be foolish to persist with my PIS to lure my NRI investors to pump in ~US$750m to add value to its

[kemismelt] 06/3/2020 13:29

Greenland is young in the ilmenite mining world! After a year's study I realised it would be foolish to persist with my PIS to lure my NRI investors to pump in ~US$750m to add value to its

[lovewinshatelosses] 06/3/2020 11:23

Hi kemismelt. Perhaps so, but so what? He and the rest of the senior management team have lots of local experience and should by now have established very strong, influential suitors/backers, which all combined should ensure we achieve something in the region of the broker valuation most recently shared on this board, before too much longer.
Like most people in business, results are key and everything else is simply noise. You either succeeed in overcoming the challenge(s) or you do not.
I have not sold a single share here BTW and not looking to de-ramp, but I just felt I needed to reply to your comment :)

[kemismelt] 06/3/2020 10:30

Rod is working under very challenging forward looking conditions even unknown in more mature mining jurisdictions like Australia and India!

[andy] 06/3/2020 07:43

mieandj,


so around 10% lower than last year, not bad in the circumstances.

[mirandaj] 06/3/2020 07:15

Andy,

It appears to have been busier than expected with many meetings going on as usual and busy stands in spite of Covid-19 scares.

[andy] 06/3/2020 05:52

Any video from the PDAC presentation this year?

[mirandaj] 05/3/2020 15:58

Company News

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 6p, Mkt Cap £59m – Valuation upgrade on theoretical optimisation of Dundas ilmenite project and rising demand for ilmenite feedstock
(Dundas Ilmenite project, Greenland, 100% owned)

BUY, Target price revised to 20.1p (from 16.3p)

We are upgrading our valuation on Bluejay Mining on our theoretical optimisation of the Dundas ilmenite project in Greenland.

Our thinking and assumptions have evolved based on increasing confidence in the project and rising prices and demand for ilmenite feedstock.
While the Coronavirus is impacting fundamental global GDP growth we feel there will be higher demand for paint and pigments as a result of lower interest rates and other economic stimulus.

Alternative sources of ilmenite may also be disrupted leading to stronger demand for clean, ilmenite concentrate feedstock.
New stimulus measures as well as self-isolation and the impact of greater home working is also likely to raise pigment demand.

Assumptions:

We have very simply added 50% to our assumed production rate in year 4. Taken 20% off our key mining, processing and loading costs and added 20% to our capital cost assumptions.

Bluejay raises mine production to 11.3mtpa at the resource grade of 7.1%
Ilmenite concentrate production rises to 641,000tpa from 440,000tpa
Operating costs start at $109/t of concentrate but then fall to $89/t on operation optimisations

EBITDA rises to $134/t per tonne of concentrate from $113/t in year four
We assume an ilmenite sales price of $220/t – this is the mid-range of the current estimated ilmenite price by FastmarketsMB

Capital cost rises to 294m from $245m previously assumed.
We assume an 8% interest rate and an 8% discount rate for our NPV valuation.

Resource:

It is our view having visited the Dundas site that this mine should continue to produce ilmenite well beyond its current estimated resource as a relatively small proportion of the total beach area has been drilled.
We assume the resource will continue to grow from the JORC 101mt grading 7.1% ilmenite as published on 17 December 2018 given the exploration target of 300,000-500,000t

This resource report indicated much higher grade areas on the beach with 31mt grading 10.7% ilmenite in-situ using a 3.5% cut-off grade and 16mt at 12.9% at a 4.5% cut-off grade.

Selective mining could lead to accelerated cash flow and lower costs in the early years depending on the optimisation.

Bluejay later upgraded their resource to 117mt grading 6.1% ilmenite though the inclusion of some lower grade material on 29 May 2019.

We believe Bluejay’s ilmenite grades have been underestimated in the JORC resource drilling due to issues relating to the sonic drill rig and will prove to be better than estimated on mining and processing.

It is our view that further work on the resource to include more material from the Iterlak Delta combined with optimisation of the mine plan should also enable the extension of the resource at higher grades than currently forecast.

Conclusion:

Optimisation of the Dundas ilmenite project should lead to significantly better returns in our view. While much will depend on future demand for ilmenite feedstock we see BlueJay’s location at Dundas in Greenland as strategically placed to feed into some major consumers going forward.

We see the impact of the Coronovirus as leading to significant economic stimulation which we feel with help drive demand for pigments and ilmenite feedstock.
As with the Victorians, following Cholera outbreaks in the 1800’s consumers and governments will wish to show clean and fresh looking homes and public places in an effort to restore confidence in their sanitisation.

This is why many Victorian buildings and possibly early London Underground stations were tiled as part of the trend to create a cleaner looking appearance and confidence in their spaces.

*SP Angel act as nomad to Bluejay Mining. *SP Angel have visited the Dundas, Itelak ilmenite sands project in Greenland.

[snowyflake] 03/3/2020 18:52

Yes bbb but then we were all entitled to accept that having spent years working in Greenland, our ceo knew or should have known what could or could not be achieved with the mining authority. In hindsight, how we misunderstood the reality.

I am with summertime, however, in that Bluejay could still pull off a deal soon.

[summerfield1] 03/3/2020 17:45

Amateurs running our money

[bigboyblue] 03/3/2020 17:38

That's not meant to be fire SF, merely an observation of the inevitable given the early stage of the developing industry; I have no doubt that it is improving. I fully agree with your main point. On a personal note I would add that if I had researched in 2017/8 to the extent that I have more recently, I would have known then that the interviews with timelines and short term success etc were pie in the sky. It simply wasn't going to happen. Still, we live and learn.