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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited LSE:BSIF London Ordinary Share GG00BB0RDB98 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00 -0.75% 131.50 131.50 132.00 133.00 131.50 132.00 1,202,829 16:22:16
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.7 44.9 12.2 10.8 487

Bluefield Solar Income Share Discussion Threads

Showing 226 to 250 of 300 messages
Chat Pages: 12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
30/1/2020
12:26
The more I watch this, the more it looks like a massive JP Morgan instigated tree shake. Possibly JPM are wanting to buy into the renewables sector for the highly attractive, inflation linked yield - but at their predicted 40% lower price. So here's what we know1) The directors are not selling2) Elliot Cap closed their 1% short position (opened on 4th Jan ) on 20th Jan - shorttracker.Co.UK reports no other short positions today3) The dividend is well covered at 1.9x and the Company paid a special divi last year4) Bluefield exposure to electricity prices only affects 1/3 of the income stream, the other 2/3 is guaranteed government FITs and ROC payments5) Bluefield have fixed price electricity supply contracts with their buyers 3 years out6) Brookfield Renewable, a huge NYE renewables firm is still within 0.25% of its all time high7) Possibly the two JPM analysts have misunderstood the basis of the UK renewable sector business model - BSIF, GSF, JLEN and TRIG have all announced recent plant aquisitions/construction projectsThere you have it. IMHO, hold and buy.
tartshagger
30/1/2020
11:19
"share prices are driven by demand and supply" Share prices are primarily driven by sentiment - the supply/demand equation is more significant with small, illiquid stocks.
masurenguy
30/1/2020
10:59
share prices are driven by demand and supply - in my opinion much of the premium here is driven by the misconception that it is a risk free high yield in a very appealing sector....those articles will make 'the market' wake up that it is not the case - therefore the premiums will fall. IMO only. As the selling starts the wealth managers will reduce...its how they work : )
nimbo1
28/1/2020
20:35
Correction to my last post. I think 7.18% is the equity discount rate (I was confused by the reference to 'weighted average discount rate' in the last annual report). This is still higher on a WACC basis than the market discount rate for portfolios of this type, so the NAV still undervalues the underlying assets. I also expect the market discount rate to continue to fall as it has done steadily for the last 5 years. BSIF is not significantly exposed to short term price movements as it enters into fixed price PPAs with 12-36 month duration. If the electricity price was to fall in the long term, then 1/3 of cashflows would be impacted, but with the increased future demand coming from EVs and heat pumps (low carbon heat), I think it is just as likely that prices will rise.
fw7
28/1/2020
18:49
Just read comments below and think the bear case is weak for a few reasons. BSIF NAV is based on a WACC discount rate of 7.18% (Jun19), which includes 33% low cost long term debt. Pension funds are now active buyers of these assets as they provide a long term inflation linked yield which is attractive compared to other inflation linked bonds. BSIF could probably sell their whole portfolio at a discount rate of 5.5%, so first point to make is that the BSIF discount rate is artificially high, so a premium over NAV should be expected. 2/3 of the revenue stream is RPI linked ROC payments, so only 1/3 is exposed to market prices. Electricity price has fallen in recent months, but it is very volatile (look up baseload electricity price chart). Poyry and Baringa produce electricity price forecasts and these change every quarter. Sometimes they go up and sometimes down, but it is certainly wrong to assume that the price will stay low forever. Last reason why these projects are attracting investment is that the cashflows are largely stable and therefore investors can park their cash and get a safe inflation linked yield that is significantly higher than is available elsewhere. On this basis they will be happy to get 5.5% yield, if the alternative is 1.5% in a bank. There is equity risk, but these projects are very boring and there is not much that can go wrong if managed correctly.
fw7
28/1/2020
17:42
hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/risky-renewables-now-jefferies-questions-dividend-cover-if-power-prices-plunge/a1317805?section=investment-trust-insider&_ga=2.235307718.630262266.1580232792-291942799.1580232792 For the doubters this is off insider info from city wire
nerja
28/1/2020
17:38
Risky Renewables: now Jefferies questions dividend cover if power prices plunge Renewable infrastructure investment company share prices fell again today as investors continued to respond to yesterday’s bearish note on the sector by analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove and Jefferies analyst Matthew Hose added to investor concern about the impact of falling power prices on the income funds ability to pay covered dividends. Where Cazenove’s Chris Brown focused on the hit to valuations of the six listed renewables funds from declining long-term electricity price forecasts – predicting their net asset values (NAV) could fall by a third on average and their shares, trading at double-digit premiums over NAV, could slump by over 40% - Jefferies’ Hose highlighted the reduction in earnings and dividends this slump could cause. Like Brown, Hose contrasted how Foresight Solar, JLEN Environmental Assets, NextEnergy Solar and Greencoat UK Wind predicted 0.4% to 1% annual real growth after inflation in power prices despite independent forecaster Bloomberg New Energy Finance positing 4% annual declines up until 2040. In a note to investors, Hose said the weakness in power prices could burst a bubble in the shares that had been inflated by the wall of money from ESG (environmental, social, governance) investors last year. Hose believed renewables funds shares, which closed at an average premium of 14% on Monday, could tumble to the low discounts to NAV they stood at in 2015/16 when power prices were also under pressure. Sensitive NAVs This is because his analysis shows a 5% reduction in power price assumptions knocks the NAVs of the different funds by between 2.9% and 5.3% making their high share price ratings even more precarious: NextEnergy Solar (NESF), 9.8% share price premium, -5.3% hit to NAV; Foresight Solar (FSFL), 10.8% premium, -4.4% hit; Bluefield Solar (BSIF), 20% premium, -3.7% hit; Greencoat UK Wind (UKW), 14.4% premium, -3.7% hit Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG), 13.7% premium, -3.5% hit; JLEN Environmental Assets (JLEN), 15% premium, -2.9% hit. But the more pressing risk for income investors, said Hose, was the impact on near-term cash flows as revenues from selling power declined and weakened dividend cover. ‘We see the cover of certain funds as relatively thin and, in some cases, as being supported by fixing/hedging that could eventually roll off into lower realised power prices,’ the analyst said. According to Hose, Greencoat UK Wind has the best dividend cover, with earnings 1.7 times its payouts, in contrast to the other five on multiples of just 1.1 at Bluefield, 1.2 at Foresight and JLEN and 1.3 at NextEnergy and Renewables Infrastructure. Bluefield's dividend challenge Bluefield Solar Income, downgraded to ‘underweight’ by Brown and rated ‘negative̵7; by Hose, was the biggest faller in the group today. Its shares fell 5p or 3.5% to 137.5p after yesterday it announced its first purchase in over three years of three UK solar parks for £13.9m. Today it announced its first quarterly dividend of 1.95p per share for the financial year to 30 June for which it is targeting a total of 7.90p. This will be up from 7.68p last year, although the company, which is unusual in having a policy of paying out all its earnings, topped this up with a special dividend of 0.63p in 2019. Brown questioned the sustainability of Bluefield’s dividend, which is currently linked to the retail prices (RPI) index, a higher measure of inflation than the standard consumer prices (CPI) version. ‘While we share the BSIF board's confidence in the shorter-term outlook for the dividend, if the shorter-term power price remains weak then the average fixed power price would be expected to fall while the dividend target is based on RPI, with only the regulated income [from government ROC subsidies] guaranteed to rise in line with RPI. ‘We think meeting these targets will be a challenge across the sector, but with a full payout policy, it might be felt earlier by BSIF than by some of the peers,’ said Brown. Other fallers JLEN Environmental Assets shed 2p or 1.7% to 119p as it announced plans to invest €25m in a portfolio of construction ready wind farms and solar parks in Europe. NextEnergy Solar slipped 3.5p or 2.9% to 118p and GCP Infrastructure Investments (GCP), a generalist infrastructure fund that also invests in renewables, slid 3.8p or 2.9% to 128p. Renewables Infrastructure Group, Greencoat UK Wind and Foresight Solar eased between 0.3% and 1.25% lower.
nerja
28/1/2020
17:12
See SQN asset finance as an example of what can happen when pricing assumptions change. Its just a risk - it may never come to pass on the solar funds and premiums to NAV may increase....I have no idea.
nimbo1
28/1/2020
15:59
They won't ignore NAV if it starts to plummet
williamcooper104
28/1/2020
15:58
The issue with renewables is that the senior and junior debt is usually for the life of the PPA (10 to 15 years) and that sucks up much of the cashflow meaning that the equity is repaid out of the tail of the project so is hugely dependent on power prices The DCF models used to create NAV will assume a lot of inflation - so the equity is really rather sensitive to long term power price forecasts Sub-debt in renewables was always the better risk/return 5.5 percent is good - but the satefy check is the PV of that growing at inflation for the averages PPA price - difference between that and share price is the risk
williamcooper104
28/1/2020
13:24
The NAV is based on discounted cash flows projected 25-30 yrs out. But as the share price of BSIF is so disconnected from the NAV. Then maybe investors will ignore this fundamental. Though @~5.5% yield it hardly looks a bargain........IMHO
damp seaweed
28/1/2020
12:13
So the bubble could burst in the next 20-30 years? Hardly a reason to panic.
bobdouthwaite
28/1/2020
10:31
Update) Investors in London’s expensive listed renewable energy funds are at a risk of a 43% share price fall and a 33% drop in asset values due to the slide in long-term power forecasts, JPMorgan Cazenove has warned. Strong investor demand for their reliable dividends and environmentally friendliness has pushed shares in London’s six wind and solar power investment companies to an average 16% premium above their underlying net asset values (NAV). But UK investment companies analyst Christopher Brown said the double-digit premiums of companies in the £9bn renewables sector were unsustainable in face of mounting evidence that growth in carbon-free energy would slash the cost of electricity in the next 20-30 years. While that's good news for consumers and the planet, it is bad news for funds generating most of their revenues from selling electricity into the wholesale market, said Brown and fellow analyst Adam Kelly. Using the latest figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, an independent forecaster owned by financial media giant Bloomberg, the analysts believed the NAVs of Bluefield Solar Income (BSIF), Foresight Solar (FSFL), Greencoat UK Wind (UKW), JLEN Environmental Assets (JLEN), NextEnergy Solar (NESF) and Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) could drop by a third on average. And because of their elevated share prices – trading at premiums of between 12% and 23% - that could translate into a 43% fall in their stocks, they said.
nerja
28/1/2020
10:15
Any chance someone could cut and paste that article. Can't read it and really don't want to sign up to yet another investment service. TIA
campervan1
28/1/2020
09:45
Bubble bursting here like it did with LTI. No longer holds any of these trusts for this reason. Would be delighted to buy back nearer nav - finally market realises the high income is at a price - I.e amortising capital to 0 and market foundations for power pricing not rock solid.
nimbo1
28/1/2020
08:19
hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/renewable-funds-could-plunge-40-on-cannibalisation-threat-say-jpm-analysts/a1317406?ref=investment-trust-insider-latest-news-list Renewable funds could plunge 40% on ‘cannibalisation’ threat, say JPM analysts
nerja
28/1/2020
08:01
This years dividend projected to be a 2.8% increase over last year RNS Number : 0679B 28 January 2020 The First Interim Dividend of 1.95 pence per Ordinary Share will be payable to Shareholders on the register as at 7 February 2020 with an associated ex-dividend date of 6 February 2020 and a payment date of 28 February 2020. Bluefield Solar and its Board of Directors set annual dividend targets which are intended to grow in line with the Retail Price Index ('RPI'), using the 2014/15 financial year dividend of 7 pence per share as a base. The total dividend for the financial year ending 30 June 2019 was 8.31 pence per Ordinary Share, which consisted of the 7.68 pence per share target divided and an additional dividend of 0.63 pence per share. The target dividend for the financial year ending 30 June 2020 remains at 7.90 pence per Ordinary Share, as published in the Company's latest annual report for the financial year ending 30 June 2019.
masurenguy
27/1/2020
17:10
hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/renewable-funds-could-plunge-40-on-cannibalisation-threat-say-jpm-analysts/a1317406?re=71527&ea=1174519&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&;utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily
nimbo1
17/1/2020
13:52
New all time high I wonder if we'll see some consolation In this sector ?
panshanger1
24/12/2019
15:05
Consistent annual growth in the shareprice over the past 3 years. 2017 - 2018: 7.9% 2018 - 2019: 11.8% 2019 - 2020: 10.5% (as at 24/12/19) That is an actual increase of 36p, which averages 1p per month over those 3 years. Over the same period the share has also yielded 22.5p in dividends.
masurenguy
18/12/2019
09:26
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck it prolly is a duck! Looks like a clean breakout to me, the measured move would be to 147p
tartshagger
17/12/2019
17:27
Another ATH close @140p. :o)
masurenguy
07/12/2019
16:55
BSIF finally closed at an ATH of 138.75p yesterday.
masurenguy
06/12/2019
10:37
Just hit an ATH intraday price with a £40K Buyer of 28,930 shares @138.24p.
masurenguy
22/11/2019
08:36
I've let a whole load of these go this am at 137... price may kick on but premium too large for me and JLEN results talks of weak power prices achieved hence looking at battery storage...
nimbo1
Chat Pages: 12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
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