Blue Prism Share Discussion Threads

[windsor430] 27/4/2018 22:45

And how’s a PE of 5 anything but remarkable?

You’ve lost me today Danny.

These next two years are a land-grab... Lower licenses are temporary, but massively offset by huge volumes, up sells & retention.

Wait until you see the top players (AA, UIP & PRSM) numbers.

[dannyboylife] 27/4/2018 22:23

hxxps://www.cio.com/article/3226387/artificial-intelligence/why-rpa-implementations-fail.html

This is the legacy RPA has left after 10 years...

[dannyboylife] 27/4/2018 22:05

Has anyone done any research on license pricing. When BP came to market, it was charging more than 10k pounds per Robot.As was AA, Pega, UIpath, Contextor, Nice and the many others Even up to end of last year BP were still at high end but with 30+ enterprise quality RPA vendors all showing a small number of big wins, a recent Procurement event puts most of them now at 300 to 4000 at list price. Workfusion is free but we can all agree, it's a only disruptor but not technically superior. However, its proof the technology vendors don't have many tech advantages over each other. BP lost quickly it's time to market and being eaten alive by AA, UIpath, Pega and Nice.

With 20 plus vendors and serious RPA vendors at a fraction of the price now, who can answer me this, what is the average deal size in 2018. This dramatically impacts this entire market size (license). Given HFS stats, it's a shrinking total market for license whilst increasing for services.

No one in this space, is arguing the above, other than vendor marketing.

If BP don't sell in 2018, expect a PE of 5.

[sogoesit] 27/4/2018 20:16

hi qruz,
Have a look at my post 2509 where I looked at breakeven from a (slightly?) different angle.
PRSM’s accounting is very conservative on income recognition so I understand where you’re coming from but, as I’m travelling, difficult to analyse your issue. Will see if I get time at the weekend.

[qruz] 27/4/2018 15:24

Sogo,

23m of the deferred balance is released this year, plus what ever they make this year from the new deals which isn't deferred. I'm trying to understand if they will be net positive (just) this year when you take away the cash burn.

[hazl] 27/4/2018 15:07

Meanwhile their desirability is evident.......to me anyway.

[sogoesit] 27/4/2018 14:57

The company isn't profitable so earnings are negative so there is no "P/E".

My estimate a while back was for break-even sometime end 2019/beginning 2020 earliest but don't forget they received placing funds of £40m which they have to whack into their marketing thus making profitability potentially a bit further out.

If I remember right my forecast for the full year when breakeven occurs was 29p/share so your P/E depends on what the market will pay when that happens .... 50x, 60x, 70x.... etc. ????

[qruz] 26/4/2018 18:54

p/e of around 65 correct?

[qruz] 26/4/2018 18:54

No idea,

Does anyone have a p/e ratio if the below differed income is added in to 2018 earnings against a similar cashburn? so 23m DB in 2018 - 8.3m cash burn again..call it earnings of 15m?

"Statement of financial position
Deferred income, which is the value invoiced less
the recognised revenue, grew 162 per cent to £27.3m
(FY2016: £10.4m), as a result of strong growth in new
business and the advance payments of £5.2m from
a small number of customers. Of the £27.3m at
31 October 2017, £23m will be released in 2018 and
the balance over the remaining periods of the contract."

[sogoesit] 26/4/2018 18:26

It’s a bit confusing that web page imv qruz.
From last year it appears to say to me that Interim Results end date is 30 April & they report them on 26 June.
However, last year there was a TU before June reporting of Interims on 13 April.
Well, in any case I’m confused. Lol
I think we’re due a TU before they report Interims on 26 June next. It’s imminent... and maybe will be 30 April just to confuse me more!

[qruz] 26/4/2018 18:17

30th April next TU

[sogoesit] 26/4/2018 17:53

By my reckoning we’re due a TU shortly.
Anyone short and, if so, from what price?

[hazl] 26/4/2018 09:24

thanks windsor

[windsor430] 26/4/2018 07:08

Their latest roadshow looks v popular (check out PRSMs CMO (ex-Automation Anywhere Marketing exec) on Twitter). Their RPA World Conference looks to have scaled well since last year too - EY, Deloitte + many other relevant speakers

[dannyboylife] 25/4/2018 13:00

Actually, IBM do not have more than one centralized RPA practice. Sure the global teams can and often do what they like but the point here is lost on you. The banner ad points you make are 101 and yet again you entirely miss the point. This lead RPA URL link on THE prime IBM automation domain web site, including the in-depth technical collaboration is proving its prime partner is with AA.

And no, this isn't done on an arbitrary banner ad but their prime URLs for RPA, regardless of cookies. Some basic research yourself would have done you more justice than child like shoot the messenger.

Sorry if you don't like facts being posted. What you do with them is up to you.

[doesb003] 25/4/2018 07:56

IBM... 380.000 employees. You truly think that the left side of the company knows what the slightly not so left side of the company does? Furthermore, I dont recon Blue Prism management would be aware of something like this. Bet they've got better things to do than click on banners and see what happens. Smart advertising might even be used where you had some cookies on your device of AA, the banner detected those and redirected you to a company where it would be most likely that you were tempted to contact IBM.

All speculative? Ow absolutely! But I'm using the same nonconstructive arguments as your post ;)

[dannyboylife] 24/4/2018 14:55

If you search for Blueprism RPA, an IBM paid ad shows which when clicked takes you direct to a download of Automation Anywhere on the IBM web site. Management should have that shut that down if they are still partners with IBM.

[hazl] 23/4/2018 11:57

Nasdaq pre-market up and so if it holds could bode well for this afternoon.
What a fickle market.

[hazl] 20/4/2018 16:47

We mirror the Nasdaq which is sometimes fortunate and sometimes unfortunate

[hazl] 20/4/2018 12:33

It is there in black and white in ambelmax's link.
Your reference is a data -driven report, a speculation on compiled data.

'IBM’s position as key partner underlines the technology is not easily replicable.'
Good enough for me.
Until things change or I get a reliable source stating differently,yes I am convinced of Blue Prism's longevity.

[dannyboylife] 20/4/2018 10:53

Hazl, what did you mean, "key" partnership with IBM?

hxxps://www.ibm.com/uk-en/marketplace/robotic-process-automation

The latest Everest matrix also now puts AA and UIpath well ahead of them and now 18 RPA vendors qualify to be in the list.. ike I said, saturated and easily duplicated, little differentiators with not enough repeat revenue have been my points being validated time and time again.

There are actually many more RPA vendors and some companies even have started to build their own. I was told their lead will keep them well ahead, justifying the massive valuation on low revenue and non profit.

I like the BP people a lot and see them at many events but don't like seeing the inaccuracies in the market on these boards. We warned or ignore, you choose.

[hazl] 20/4/2018 08:54

'While there is limited patent protection in respect of Blue Prism’s technology, IBM’s position as key partner underlines the technology is not easily replicable. The US key market business remains pivotal and the company continues to grow its channel pipelines to drive sales. The company maintains high gross margins. However, it is highly operationally geared with new customers and may be loss-making while it grows rapidly. Earnings forecasts remain conservative.'
from above
This rather negates some of the comments made by a poster here recently!

[hazl] 20/4/2018 08:18

Very good find ambelmax.
Confirms the importance of BP.

Interestingly enough the second area they mentioned diamond-trading on the blockchain I had already had an interest in.
That was through TECH though.
Have to say that only have a token holding in it at present because all these blockchain things have been going out of favour.
However,I believe, in the long run this will happen and be important.
The trick is finding the right firm at the right time!

[spacedust] 18/4/2018 14:25

Lookalike buy worth 600k gone through. Must be hedge fund ready prior to interims