Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 04/2/2016 17:27

Looks like the medium term downtrend is broken. I can't see it dropping back to maybe 160p or lower if NAV is going to be maybe 205p or more tomorrow. The longer term downtrend remains.


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[aleman] 04/2/2016 16:27

Mining Index up 11.4% just before the close. BRWM up 6%. It underperformed yesterday and pretty much the last two weeks. BRWM has stuck at the downtrend resistance. It should be maybe 10p higher. There'll be a huge leap in published NAV tomorrow. Maybe the discount to NAV will just increase again. Maybe not. It should be an interesting day.

[hugepants] 04/2/2016 16:00

the big miners are looking perky today

BLT +11%
RIO +11%
GLEN +14%
FQM +23%

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2016 15:26

Some of the sector moves are quite incredible, RIO )

[aleman] 04/2/2016 14:18

Copper seems to be joining in now. It just hit a 3-month high at $2.143/lb. Gold $1155. Silver $14.90.

They are all going up still but $ weakness won't last forever.

Mining Index up 7.8% today..

[llef] 04/2/2016 10:35

Nyrstar (belgian zinc miner and refiner) results out today, said its planning to sell all its mining assets in next few months to concentrate on metal processing.

Could be a sign of weaker hands exiting the mining market

"Our current strategy is to focus allocation of available capital to growth projects in the Metals Processing segment and, as such, we have retained BMO Capital Markets and Lazard to assist with a process to pursue a sale of all or the majority of our mining assets."

[racg] 04/2/2016 08:08

Goodo! about time, miserable being long here.

[aleman] 04/2/2016 07:59

Metals all kept on rising overnight.

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2016 07:14

BHP and RIO Up over 8% on the ASX.

[aleman] 03/2/2016 17:27

Volatile out there. After scrubbing off earlier gains, the Mining Index rose sharply in the last hour to finish at +3.1%, Credit rating agencies forgotten about as miners outperformed the rest by about 5% today.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2016 16:55

Are the commodity moves today a result of a weaker DXY?.

[llef] 03/2/2016 16:54

GDX ETF up 5.5% now and above 1500.

its broken above the downtrend line lining jul 14, may 15, oct 15 and jan 16 highs.

shoudl help NAV tomorrow

[llef] 03/2/2016 14:44

Gold/Silver/Diamonds are 30% of the portfolio, and gold is enjoying a stealth rally this year - up 6%.
Gold miners ETF GDX is up 2% today to 1455.
It had an outside move last month (lower low, higher high), and so a move above 1500 would be v positive.

[llef] 03/2/2016 14:35

yep, I agree to close it down.

re walmart: Morrisons are shutting stores in the UK, but Aldi and Lidl are opening stores - its a natural cycle of growth and decline.

[aleman] 03/2/2016 14:31

Copper regained $2.10/lb. Same as nearly 3 months ago. Up 5% in the last month and a more important one for BRWM yet BRWM ignoring.

Mining index up 2.8% today.

I only post this stuff because BRWM is largely ignoring recent good news. NAV is probably around 200p up to this afternoon so the discount must be about 17%. It's lack of reaction that enourages me to post. Hopefully, it will catch up and then you can all be pleased as I will post less!

[aleman] 03/2/2016 14:15

Modest changes in supply and demand can have big effects on markets. Used prices are forecasted to fall 2-5% at a time when car loan interest rates are rising. 1m fewer car sales and 1.5-2m fewer cars manufactured, to bring stocks back, will do what to the US economy, which is already weak? Normal retail is looking at $100-200bn destocking on falling sales. Autos could add another $30bn on current trends. That's maybe 1.5% of GDP as manufactured, although much is imported, but that is just manufacturing. There are services riding on that worth lots more. If they want to keep the reformist Republicans out, they have a lot of spinning to do to hide the downturn.

Did you see the Walmart closure announcements?



I think we have covered this subject enough, don't you think?

[llef] 03/2/2016 13:52

3 million seems a big number, until you realise that 36m used cars were sold in 2014...

hxxp://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/021715-used-market-report.pdf

[aleman] 03/2/2016 13:35

Stocks usually rise a few days in January. It is only slightly weaker than an average month.

US car sales trend is clearly turning down as credit tightens, incentives ease and used supply increases. The spin is all a bit of a ocn and even think thre is a bit of fiddling goung in with the adjusted numbers. The rise in used supply this year is significant. New sales programs ar ebing doen to cope with it.




More than 3 million autos will reach the end of their leases this year, a 35 percent jump from last year, according to the NADA Used Car Guide, which uses data from J.D. Power’s Power Information Network. It’s the most off-lease vehicles since 2003, according to Manheim Consulting.

[llef] 03/2/2016 13:19

ADP report 205k job growth in January

Aleman - are ADP/Moodys in the employ of the US Democrats too?

[llef] 03/2/2016 13:17

Aleman,

I agree that sales are slowing, as after all, last year sales were a record, but a drop of 0.4% y/y in Jan does not scream recession to me.

re "GM stocks rose from 61 days to 74 days last month alone"
The first month of the year is typically the weakest month for U.S. new-auto sales. ( see hxxp://www.ibtimes.com/january-2016-us-new-auto-sales-best-start-year-2006-demand-suvs-trucks-continue-2290940)
It would be normal therefore to build up stocks ahead of better selling months.

In 2000-2007 new car sales averaged over 16m a year.
In 2010-12, they were less than 14m (much less in 2010, 2011) - so there is nothing unprecedented or remarkable about the "surge in 5 year old leased cars about to hit the 2nd hand car market" in 2016, or 2017

hxxp://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/total-vehicle-sales

cheers

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2016 11:58

Yes agree.