Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2016 12:00

I have copper down nearly 1% atm, may be looking at the incorrect data.

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2016 10:10

Sold some more RIO on the further pop,
not expecting a move much beyond current levels,
so if that is not the case it will be a bad call.

[fabius1] 28/1/2016 10:02

EI - I like the cut of Olivia Markham's jib. Some good Aussie grit there. I think the team's approach to stock selection is on the right lines and they seem to have identified the miners with leaner lines a little while back. Of course they cannot call the market but they can hedge where appropriate which is fine by me. It should find its way back onto the reserves, assuming they are on their game.

[essentialinvestor] 27/1/2016 19:19

The main issue here IMV is that beyond RIO and BHP, I would not be
confident in how much equity value will be left in some of their other main
holdings, perhaps that view is overly cautious.

[aleman] 27/1/2016 18:00

Base metals all up again. Even copper looks to be thinking of joining the recent uptrend. Zinc and Aluminium are close to 3-month highs. Looking perkier, anyway. The FTSE 350 Mining Index was up 1.9% today. BRWM looks to be expanding its discount due to not keeping up with the miners, which are outperforming the FTSE100 nicely of late.


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The trouble is that the share price does not want to follow NAV up or it will have to cross the downtrend resistance, which is around 178p and falling quite quickly. Another good day or two of rises in metals prices should see it jump through, though. I can't imagine news bad enough to keep it under any longer, when you consider how it has resisted general market falls in the last couple of weeks. It would have to be pretty disastrous news. Not impossible, of course.


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[essentialinvestor] 27/1/2016 16:45

Crude doing nicely, very nice day for Shell, copper has perked up.

Now holding considerably less RIO than would ideally like
so hopefully an opportunity to add lower, 17.17 in the auction.

Unless we are facing a ferocious bear market the RDSB price of 12.61
may be the low, mentioned last week that BHP looks to have at least made
a significant interim low.

Not sure we are out of the woods yet with wider equity markets so the
next week or two will be interesting, may still be an early bear market.

[walter walcarpets] 26/1/2016 22:11

anyone know if there is a thread for Blackrock Gold and General ?

tia
walt

[essentialinvestor] 26/1/2016 15:23

Traded some RIO at 16.08 this morning and was pleased as bought at 15.76 near the open, oh my!.

[mister md] 26/1/2016 15:07

hopefully near the bottom here - but only accumulating in small chunks just in case

[racg] 26/1/2016 14:38

Long way for it to burrow.

We still got about 8p of revenue reserves on top of the current year income or am I mistaken?

[smurfy2001] 26/1/2016 14:36

Worm finally turning?

[aleman] 26/1/2016 14:20

Freeport McMoRan loss smaller than expected and guides to slightly higher operating cashflow in 2016. Shares up 5%+.

[aleman] 26/1/2016 11:54

A little jump in the copper price is probably why BRWM is up today. The 2% rise in the last couple of hours is not significant in itself but does seem to add to the feeling that the declines might be ending. The FTSE mining index is up 2.3%.

[aleman] 26/1/2016 09:25

Base metals showing a just a little strength in recent days despite further large stockmarket falls on poor corporate results in the consumer sector of the US. Adjust for the stronger $ and it's probably not unreasonable to say that base metal prices have now been stable for about 3 months. The FTSE 350 mining index has outperformed the FTSE100 by about 3.5% in the last two weeks - not a large amount but possibly another indicator that the trend might be turning and shorters are moving on to targets in other sectors.

[llef] 22/1/2016 15:45

copper, oil, silver, and equities all up.
also gold up, which has previosuly this year rallied on stock weakness (so you would expect it to fall in this environment).

Jim Cramer on CNBC said that were rumours swirling of concerted CB action in next 72 hours - ie the reflation trade could be back on - tho he did not think it would happen...

cheers

[aleman] 22/1/2016 12:45

Retail sales figures were very poor, showing an annual decrease for the first time since 2009 on value (distorred a bit by cheap petrol) and a recessionary trend in several sectors on volumes (as food and fuel held up). Any more worsening and the UK could be in recession. There have been numerous major announcements of job losses in the UK in recent days (lots more than mentioned in the article below). Not just China, then. How can China import more for their manufacturers if they are getting fewer orders from the US and UK? Given recent cuts to supply, I fancy metals prices will be a lead indicator in the recovery from this slowdown/recession. The media probably won't even recognise it until the stockmarket has fallen 40% and it is nearly over.

[essentialinvestor] 22/1/2016 11:01

On wider equity markets what would concern me is the price action in the DJT.

Weakness in the Transports flashed a warning sign by June last year,
a few weeks later that index was in correction, well before wider US markets,
and now trading in a bear market which the RUT has joined.

If is continues as an accurate leading indicator the SPX/DJI are heading
for bear markets which will drag the UKX and most other markets lower.

[essentialinvestor] 22/1/2016 10:54

I have kept 50%, so definitely have exposure to the upside.

Was pretty sure there would be a market rebound, the scale of the ROI spike
surprised me, where we go from here is a lot more difficult to call.

Added to PNL this AM in case of further market downside.

And agree personal bias and confirmation can both influence and sometimes
cloud judgement.

[racg] 22/1/2016 10:50

Hope not EI. Funny how are views are coloured by whether we're invested or not and where we did, when we honestly try and objectively decide fair value on the spectrum. Market makes fools of us all. Well, I speak only for myself in that regard.

[essentialinvestor] 22/1/2016 09:25

racg, would think there is another leg down on the cards for the sector,
but guesswork on my part.

Have sold down a lot of my RIO holding, 10% price spike in 2 days.

BHP's low may be in, at least an interim low.

[aleman] 22/1/2016 09:24

Trying again. If only we could manage a few days without further bad news, I think this medium-term downtrend would break. (Remembering there is a long term one still intact well above it so not to get too carried away if it does give way.)


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[racg] 22/1/2016 08:18

Yay!!! Mustn't get too excited but nice to see volatility isn't just down forever.

[essentialinvestor] 21/1/2016 16:33

Nice day in RIO and at last belatedly Shell.

Trading RIO as well as my core holding so if it drops back from this move
it would suit me.

Stunning whipsaw moves for the sector, difficult to buy RDSB and RIO yesterday
amid the pervasive gloom but just ignored it and bought.

Yesterday's BHP price looks like an interim low to me, just IMV only.

[aleman] 21/1/2016 16:27

With lots of weak earnings reports from US companies, there is increasing speculation that there will be no more discount rate rises from the Fed. Given base metals have been flat for two months, they might be forming a platform to move up if the long $/short everything else trades start to reverse. The $ has got strong enough that it is causing a few problems. Even if it only stops rising, it might allow metal prices to advance, as they seem to have stabilised on fundamentals. We just need to blow out some of the speculators. Signs of a slight strengthening in emerging market economies after their currencies fell sharply against the $ can only help. I think we may now be around the bottom if these trends are allowed to continue without the intervention of a black swan event in credit or derivatives markets.

(Note that I'm not talking about oil. When the Dallas Fed tells bankers not to foreclose on underwater small oil and fracking companies so that they can keep pumping at a loss, I kind of get the feeling somebody with clout does not want the oil market to come to to its senses, for whatever political objective.)

[essentialinvestor] 20/1/2016 16:48

Well I own up to bad calls and thought there was some value
near £3, then near £2.

The second of my two buys was a fractional loss luckily on a quick change of
mind, the first cost a fat %, think it was around 7-9% without checking
but luckily on a very small position.

So was definitely wrong.

Neither did I ever think oil would trade back in the $20's.

Bought RDSB down to 12.719 today, most buys around 1290-13.07.