Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chillwill] 05/1/2016 17:29

Bought in here yesterday at 177p-ish. Chart looked ok, and ready for a move up... will see if I'm right (need to check charts again as I've completely forgotten what my target was).

[gucci] 05/1/2016 15:00

taking off

[rubberbullets] 05/1/2016 14:08

been buying KAZ

[essentialinvestor] 05/1/2016 14:04

Another powerful sector intra day move, this time at least it's up.

Sold my first lot of RIO trades near the open this morning, gave those away
looking at the current price!.

[neilyb675] 31/12/2015 14:55

Aleman - cheers for your posts with analysis. I hold several of the same stocks as you so really appreciate your views. I saw the Latins 25k buyback. Funny spread on MCLS ....

[aleman] 31/12/2015 10:37

Here's another one I hold. It's 2/3rds Latin American bonds and 1/3rd equities. It is interesting because it shows a similar trend - a long run downtrend with a sharper medium term downtrend that would have broken already if the discount to NAV had not expanded in recent weeks. What happens if the discount shrinks? (They have started buybacks.) It also makes me think we will have further lurch down (final capitulation?) or a sharp bounce early next year.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 31/12/2015 10:20

The recent fight against the downtrend by metals prices is also allowing BRWM's 200-day average to catch up a bit. I would not say it is suggesting anything at the moment but, at 240p and falling, it is not that far away to the upside. So are metals prices set to fall further in 2016 as the global economy weakens or are improvong fundamentals (supply cuts and stronger Chinee demand) settng up for what might be a strong bounce as 5 years of bad charts reverse? It will be interesting.

[essentialinvestor] 31/12/2015 10:14

Would be surprised not to see another lurch downwards in Q1/2 '16,
perhaps then setting up a more interesting longer term buying opportunity.

[aleman] 31/12/2015 10:02

Interestingly, BRWM has a similar chart except the medium dontrend threatening to break is about 16 momths. We look set to lurch down or rise to test the longer downtrend around the 350p+ mark. Interestingly, the medium downtrend would break if fthe BRWM discount to NAV just shrank back to say 10%.

[aleman] 31/12/2015 09:54

Copper is coming up to another interesting technical point on the chart. It has been in a modest uptrend for 6 weeks (as have other base metals) but is about to test resistance again at just under $2.20. Will it lurch back down or break the 8-month downtrend? There remains a strong multiyear downtrend in place above that. I fancy improvong findamentals will see the short downtrend break but the long-term falling resistance at $2.75 will hold a while. When looking at the charts that show better short-term trends for base metals since mid-November, it is worth remembering that the $ is up slightly in that time.

[professor pettigrew] 23/12/2015 23:15

What is the story over at PANR? Looks like so far a 10 bagger with a lot to go.

Anyone know what's up?

[essentialinvestor] 23/12/2015 19:20

Appreciate the view FAB as always, you to.

[fabius1] 23/12/2015 19:17

EI - Yes, I think you are right. I expect a retest of the bottom, That will tell us something. Good Xmas to all.

[essentialinvestor] 23/12/2015 17:34

Looks a like a sector bear market rally to me, but could go further.
RIO has been very kind to me over the last few days.

Sector direction far clearer following NY imv.

[aleman] 23/12/2015 17:13

Mining index closed up 6.4% today.

[llef] 23/12/2015 14:02

NAV last ngiht was 206
mining index up 5% today, so that should make it 216 tomorrow.
offer price 183 now - so discount about 15%

[fabius1] 21/12/2015 11:50

RCT - I am waiting for a test on RDSB. Would like to see a firm bottom.

[llef] 18/12/2015 08:00

some hope for copper prices?

[aleman] 17/12/2015 18:30

BRCI final dividend edged down just a touch to make it flat for the full year, with a flat forecast for 2016 - a forward yield of over 11%. Not quite as bad as expected. Although the dividend will clearly fall here, I think there might be a little read across that the market is possibly overpessimistic about the hit to come.

[rcturner2] 17/12/2015 09:45

Dipped my toe in oil today and bought RDSB.

[aleman] 16/12/2015 21:48

Well, the Fed rate rise went through and nothing dramatic happened instantly. The $ is creeping up a touch and the Dow has risen steadily to over 1% up so far this session. Generally a positive response, I suppose. Base metals have fallen a touch as the $ has strengthened which takes them all back to flat over the last month (including copper which failed the back test referred to in my above post).

[celeritas] 14/12/2015 17:42

Also the last commodity based drop in 08 was fast, was over within a year courtesy of China going on a massive build.
This one is 5 years old now.
Will China start to build again or will it be the massive cutbacks that drive the next run?
What I do know is Zinc never recovered, large mines since the last drop just haven't happened. No big investment in zinc mines will mean trouble down the road and a huge zinc shortfall.
Century and Lisheen took circa 675,000 tonnes with them, you have the slow drag with zinc still being exported from Century but that ends this month. Next year will see the mkt devoid of a huge amount, never mind Glens 500,000 tonne suspension.
Nystar cut 50,000 tonnes last week.
A group of Chinese smelters are apparently also cutting 500,000 tonnes next year, although I'd take that with a pinch of salt.

These huge cuts will lead to drastic under supply, you don't have to time the very bottom just be able to spot the changing trend.

[celeritas] 14/12/2015 17:26

BRCI or BRWM?

[celeritas] 14/12/2015 17:24

Interesting that Lead and Zinc show the strongest fundamentals. I do find this fascinating, when will the huge hedge funds let the miners change direction because thats surely whats going on here. Will fundamentals of the likes of Zinc lead and probably copper dictate the turn. If so I reckon 6 months max will see the turn and even quicker if these cuts go on.

[aleman] 14/12/2015 17:03

It seems odd that miners shares seem to be following the oil price down in the last few days even though some metals prices are up. I suspect some distortions from an overcrowded long $/ commodities trade. The Fed decision this week should be interesting.