Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[alphahunter] 14/12/2015 16:37

How many high yield debt issuers in the pack?
That's what's driving the equity market now
Doesn't matter if you are a miner, overleveraged cable telco or a jam tomorrow biotech.

[llef] 14/12/2015 15:48

mmm
first quantum is down 16% today.
I know its a volatile stock, but that is a pretty gut-wrenching move if you are long the shares..

[aleman] 14/12/2015 14:29

Just out. Probably of more importance then normal given recent announcements and the possibility of more to come.

Ten Largest Investments

Company % Total
Assets
Rio Tinto 12.4
BHP Billiton 11.3
First Quantum Minerals 6.3
Lundin Mining 5.1
Norilsk Nickel 5.0
Fresnillo 4.4
Cerro Verde 4.1
Glencore 3.9
PotashCorp 3.0
Hudbay Minerals 2.8

[my retirement fund] 14/12/2015 13:31

During the 08 bear bottom, many discounts to NAV were so reluctant to recover, several funds simply choose to liquidate simply to return investors the underlying NAV.

[rcturner2] 14/12/2015 09:41

Aleman, we are both experienced investors over many years. We hold stocks in common and I respect your views on many topics. On BRWM however, you are at serious risk of buying a dog with income about to collapse.

[aleman] 14/12/2015 09:37

You are probably right about NAV, though. It would be more typical for it to bottom at 20-25% discount than the current 12-15%. Just beware that the discount usually reaches its peak as NAV starts to turn up as the shares bump along the bottom. The last few % expansion in NAV do not usually come from more share price falls, although nothing is set in stone.

[aleman] 14/12/2015 09:22

Do you understand that buys and sells are always the same number, allowing for a little day to day variation where market makers alter their positions? It is only price that changes.

Do you inderstand that when there is a glut of a food crop, the price collapes even though the amount bought has risen?

[rcturner2] 14/12/2015 08:17

I recommended to the guy who wanted to buy that pound cost averaging would protect him the best.

I'm glad you can still LOL about this.

[aleman] 14/12/2015 08:14

RC - you previously advised the use of £ cost averaging and now you say the price can't have bottomed because there are still buyers! Are you saying they should stop £ cost averaging when the price is falling? LOL.

[rcturner2] 14/12/2015 08:06

lol argoal

share prices are determined by supply and demand

buying is demand and will hold prices up, so while there is still buying this keeps the price off the bottom

believe me buyers can disappear for a stock

[argoal] 14/12/2015 08:04

You have got that the wrong way around!!

'The presence of sellers means that we are not at the bottom' must be what you mean. Otherwise it sounds like complete nonsense.

[rcturner2] 14/12/2015 07:49

The presence of buyers suggests to me we are not at the bottom!

[professor pettigrew] 14/12/2015 07:46

RCT2 - morning. I'm not to sure a bottom isn't very near for both commodities and BRWM. I think the buying is because a lot of investors like the current yield (although I expect a divi cut next year).

There have been posters here who simply buy more the further the share price falls. Longer term that's not a bad idea.

[rcturner2] 14/12/2015 07:29

PP, what role do you think the discount might play here? If that widens that could significantly impact the share price. The fact that there are so many buyers at close to NAV is a bear signal for me. I would want to see the discount widen and there be no buyers, that would be capitulation. Bad news is still knocking the sector, so I cannot see how we are at the bottom yet.

[professor pettigrew] 14/12/2015 00:29

Chart forecasts going forward for those interested:-

Next slippage to 169p with support at 162p
Afterwards 157p support 152p / 144p/support 140p

If 137p broken next stage down 129p/support 121p.

If 116p broken then next target 109p/support 99p.

Personally, I would be buying strong around the 145-160p level. I think the capitulation in commodities has started, with oil down to around $32, but BRWM is so broadly based it could withstand another 15-20% fall in general (in commodities not the sp).

I think we will see a low given market overshoot of around 135-140p. That will be an exceedingly strong buying signal, but not before.

Also, there will be a dividend halt [probably for a year).

All IMHO and DYOR.

[mount teide] 13/12/2015 22:34

Following weak Q3 data, Clarksons is forecasting a contraction in the global seaborne trade of Iron Ore and Coal in 2015 - during the previous 25 years this market has seen a contraction only once before: in 1999 largely the result of the Asian Crisis. It proved to be a very good time to invest in the commodity and shipping sectors as it signalled a major cyclical market bottom.

The dry bulk market today has many close similarities with 1999: extremely gloomy outlook, widespread bankruptcies, collapse of the newbuild order book, demolition running at record levels, and EVERY vessel operating in the spot market losing serious money for years.

This week Dryships, one of the world's largest dry bulk shipping companies announced the sale of more than half its vessel fleet at firesale prices(taking an impairment charge of nearly US$800m in Q3), with the rest of the fleet to go as soon as they can find a buyer.

Dryship's share-price peaked at US$130 in 2008, and is currently trading at 11 cents - 99.93% down. What is particularly interesting about the Dryships asset sales is that ALL of the vessels were bought by the same buyer - a private company registered in the UK and wholly owned by a billionaire shipping veteran with a remarkable ability to time the dry bulk shipping market - his name? George Economou, the current Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dryships!

George Economou bought big in 1999 when Dry Bulk vessel prices slumped to record lows: 10 years later these ships became profitable beyond the dreams of even the most optimistic investors, grossing more in earnings in a single year than the build cost.

[hugepants] 11/12/2015 16:56

RCTurnip2,
Please post some of my "pure sh1te" bullish posts you refer to. Ive made it clear Ive no idea where the share price is going short term but Im happy accumulating if the share price drops.

[carterit] 11/12/2015 16:50

I think we can say that makes it 5 consecutive down years for BRWM and BRCI (both of which i hold),though i started buying as they reached the lows of 2008.
Though i think they could go lower,i also think that (on odds alone),it would be unusual for a sector to have 6 consecutive down years,so while i may not buy exactly at the bottom,i will be happy to add to my holdings in the new year at these prices if necessary.

[aleman] 11/12/2015 15:59

It seems strange that FQM are down 6% after lunch when Copper is still rising this afternoon and is up 3% today to 4-week high. It makes it look like heavy indiscrimnate index shorting from the USA is driving the FQM's price rather than fundamentals.

[hugepants] 11/12/2015 15:50

RCTurner2
11 Dec'15 - 13:53 - 1342 of 1342 0 0

Cicero said "do not profit from another man's misfortune"

Are you for real? You can't hide your delight when the share price tanks here.

[rcturner2] 11/12/2015 13:53

Cicero said "do not profit from another man's misfortune".

[rcturner2] 11/12/2015 13:53

HP, incorrect, I sold here at over 400p.

I do not short, as I do not think it is ethical.

[hugepants] 11/12/2015 12:07

Aleman,
Just ignore RC2. Despite his insistence the share price is going to collapse he's never taken a position to back that up. So he clearly does not believe it, or certainly does not feel its worth the risk. He posts to get a rise out of people and you've fallen into the trap!

[neilyb675] 11/12/2015 12:01

Aleman, good posts.