Blackrock Com Share Discussion Threads

[noiseboy] 11/12/2014 09:15

Just topped up, Couldn't help myself.. This too will pass

[bamboo2] 09/12/2014 21:15

Aleman, thanks for the reply.
Like most things, I guess it pays to do your research and take nothing for granted. I have not looked into the fundamentals here, only the chart and obviously should be doing some digging, and, with regard to the future, take the headline divi as a guide rather than a cert. All the best.

[aleman] 09/12/2014 20:33

There was a caveat I was going to add above but I'll do it here. It's all well and good saying the dividend income from investments looks pretty stable but that dividend income only makes up barely half of the total gross income. Just over 1/3rd is from options writing. That rose 40% last year. What happens to the barely covered dividend if the options income falls again and reduces cover back to 0.9 - or less even? I do suspect the shares are good value at this level but the dividend maybe isn't bullet-proof.

[bamboo2] 09/12/2014 20:10

Aleman, are you going to buy at this level?
Todays price action suggests eighty-something is looking, as you say, enticing.

[aleman] 09/12/2014 19:20

Thought I'd go through dividend forecasts for the top 10:

Change next 2 years %

Chevron +8 +5
ExxonMobil +10 +6
BHP Billiton +2 -
Rio Tinto +9 +8
RDSA - - (looks likely to be flat)
ENI +2 0
Enbridge Inc - - (looks likely to rise)
Freeport McM 0 -1
ConocoPhillips +11 +4
Glencore +5 +9

It suggests there isn't that much of a threat to BRCI's dividend, in which case the yield looks rather enticing.

[neilyb675] 09/12/2014 16:19

yes 70 is a historical low

[bamboo2] 08/12/2014 22:00

Interesting post Aleman.
I've followed the chart here for some time.
If it is a long term H&S[note, extended right shoulders as here, are known to be less reliable] then I see a target of about 70 on the monthly chart, very close to the low that formed towards the end of 2008.

[aleman] 08/12/2014 21:09

The price to match supply and demand should be $95. Don't forget, though, like all commodities, it has a habit of overshooting.

[aleman] 08/12/2014 20:40

I've read many times over the years that Shell do not make money from getting oil out of the ground. All their money is supposedly made from downstream operations. The fact that their shares have traded between £20 and £24 for the last 4 years seems to back this up. How much truth there is in this, I think we will find out soon. I'm not convinced however, that the dividend here is safe so long as Shell don't cut. Commodities do tend to bounce back, though, once the diggers start cutting back on capacity after a period of consideration. What is worrying is that there are lots of tales of shorting from investment banks and hedge funds. If they are shorting as hard as rumours suggest, and miners do cut back to match the artificially low price, we could have a commodities spike in a year or two that will herald the next recession. At least BRCI will act as a hedge.

[neilyb675] 08/12/2014 16:47

do you see Shell reducing their dividends ?? If the answer is NO then the div here is safe. Same question for the other big holdings within the portfolio.

[speedsgh] 08/12/2014 16:42

Dividend history looks fairly good for some time here with steadily rising payouts. How reliable is the dividend if commodity prices remain weak for an extended period?

[neilyb675] 08/12/2014 16:08

cracking buy now, near 6.5% yield

[badtime] 08/12/2014 15:54

Anyone brave enough to buy

[neilyb675] 17/10/2014 14:46

Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)

Company Region of Risk
BHP Billiton Global
Chevron Global
ConocoPhillips USA
Enbridge Income Canada
Eni Europe
ExxonMobil Global
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Asia
Royal Dutch Shell Global
Statoil Europe
Total Global

Commenting on the markets, Olivia Markham and Tom Holl, representing the
Investment Manager noted:

Both the energy and the mining sectors witnessed a sharp reversal in
performance during September, with the energy sector -5.5% (MSCI World Energy),
outperforming the mining sector -10.3% (Euromoney Global Mining Index),
resulting in a total return for the portfolio of -7.9% (with dividends
reinvested). At the end of September the Company's shares were trading at a
1.9% premium to the NAV, with a dividend yield of 5.7%.

The Brent oil price fell by 6.4% in September, finishing the month at $95/bbl.
The price was weighed down by concerns over slowing global economic and
oil-demand growth, coupled with the alleviation of previously disrupted Libyan
supply. The macroeconomic malaise experienced across much of Europe, combined
with a seasonally weak period for refining demand, also impacted the oil price.
Despite weakness in the near-term oil price, the long-term price has risen by
$5/bbl over the last month.

We saw some M&A activity in the energy sector during the month as Exploration &
Production company Encana, a position in the portfolio, announced plans to
acquire a junior Permian-based producer. This was well received by the market.
The portfolio's holding in Eni, an integrated oil & gas producer, was the largest
contributor to performance over the month following its oil discovery in
Ecuador, as well as the more defensive nature of its business.

The Euromoney Global Mining Index suffered its largest monthly fall since June
2013 as soft economic data from China and Europe continued to weigh on market
sentiment. During the month it emerged that, over August, China's industrial
production expanded at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis and
the country's power generation had fallen by 2.2% year-on-year. Mined
commodities trended lower across the board. Continued strong performance of the
US dollar, which hit a four-year high on a trade-weighted basis during the
month, continued to act as a headwind for prices. Iron ore continued on its
downward trend and finished the month at $79/tonne (having started the year at
$130/tonne).

Gold equities fell particularly hard over the period and our underweight to the
sub-sector helped drive relative returns. The portfolio's exposure to iron ore
producers including Fortescue & London Mining detracted from performance.
During the month the portfolio continued to reduce its exposure to iron ore
producers. Our copper exposure benefitted relative returns, with copper stocks
such as the portfolio's holding in Hudbay Minerals outperforming the broader
mining space.

[badtime] 14/10/2014 18:41

Neily..no lol...just the way things seem to be going :)

IMS out

[neilyb675] 14/10/2014 03:49

interesting...? can you back up your sub 90p target...?

[badtime] 13/10/2014 23:23

further to fall imho..might take a few more at sub 90...only hold a few currently...glad i sold half at 115/6

[speedsgh] 09/10/2014 13:57

Yes. Taken an initial stake. Will look to add on further weakness.

[badtime] 09/10/2014 13:41

Well u hav sub 105....maybe sub 100p

[speedsgh] 07/10/2014 12:13

Just a bit more, please. Sub-105p would be perfect ;0)

[badtime] 07/10/2014 10:00

How much lower.......

[neilyb675] 02/10/2014 15:57

added at 106, these are cheap and love the frequent divis and exposure to heavyweight US companies

[neilyb675] 26/9/2014 07:02

yep, cheap stock available at the mo - now is add time if you want to buy at low end