 "Bitcoin is the perfect example: it has no value to society, indeed it has negative value, being only useful to those who want to make financial transactions that damage society, yet it has roared ahead: it has done well so people assume it will go on doing well"
Bitcoin could reach $200k depending on the macro economic and geo-political situation. People have lost faith in money due to inflation and the huge amount of money creation.
The Big Tech 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) are showing they are dominating over the solution-less political leaders who are getting further and further into debt and yet still sitting with high negative Govt Budgets as economic GDP stagnates.
2025 could be another lost year for AIM as it does not look like Interest rates will come down much in 2025 at this moment in time, and the markets will chase yield, Treasuries,Gilts etc rather than flow much money into AIM.
The days of borrowing money to leverage in AIM have gone.
AIM companies sales orders and contracts take a longer time period than the bigger companies. Holding cash in non-dividend paying, higher risk, non profitable AIM companies whilst inflation eats up purchasing value of money is a non-starter for many.
Whilst Elevate might end up with a nice product, they will be trying to pitch into a tough market at the moment and they will be looking to steal market share from other software competitors, rather than be able to seriously grow the market .. only a top % of influencers make really good money, many trying to go it alone are finding it tough and are not getting the sponsored advertising and support they had before, as budgets become under pressure.
BIRD will face added labour costs from April with increased NI and minimum wage costs, something they will have to mitigate via maybe cost controls, price increases, or a subsequent increase in operating performance.2025 will also see no revenue from sporting World Cups or Olympics , although there will be a Ryder Cup in September.
The priced product launch of Elevate needs a near perfect execution , given the time taken to prepare for it, and they will need to hit the floor running in terms of making any marketing spend count. Influencers reviews, social media comments, etc all have to be almost 100% positive to get the initial impact of the product spread to where it potential users need to see it.
Everyone knows that product launches die out very quickly unless you have the financial spend to keep up putting the product in the feed of those that need to see it.
It will take more than "hope", "enthusiasm" and "optimism" ...they need a bulls-eye with their first arrow !!! |
NickB
Thank you.
Your post is like a breath of fresh air.
It is clear to me and others that you, without question, completely understand the capabilities of elevate.io as a stand alone product, and you also understand how it's evolving performance compares with it's existing competitors in the video editing marketplace.
I am hugely grateful to you for your consistently patient, objective and well informed input which has enabled me and some others to see the wood from the trees.
Of course there is always risk in any business investment, and as individual investors we all have to form our own judgement based on our best understanding of the SWOT analysis. We then invest accordingly.
The marketing plan is the key in order to, in a cost effective way, recruit the target number of subscribers to make elevate.io a great commercial success.
I have no doubt that the management will be going to great lengths to ensure that they understand the best way to achieve this.
Others before them have worked out their best models to achieve their own successful outcomes, and so armed with Blackbird's analysis of this, coupled with other analysis and constant measuring of results throughout the marketing campaign, I feel sure they will find a successful way forward.
They are without doubt playing this game to win big time. This feels like their once in a business lifetime opportunity to hit the bullseye! They are in the right place at the right time, with the right product. IMHO. |
Sensible post Salmon.
I’m actually encouraged by the doom merchants as it shows a complete lack of understanding of what we have been building which is about to be launched globally.
Investing in a massive opportunity with technical advantage using the services of a tech giant (AWS) for delivery at global scale.
I have tested the product it’s very close to ready to go and is best in class by a long way.
The company can’t be valued so it’s a judgement call and a very interesting one imho. |
I wish salmon9 the very best of luck in finding his pot of Gold at the end of the BIRD rainbow. |
The BOD and NEDs have already suggested that in their view a fair price will be 15p by December 2026.
Lol |
Hairflick made it clear that his invitation to predict the likely share price at the end of 2025 was just some light hearted seasonal fun.
Having said that, anyone making a guess has more information to go on than they would if they bought a lottery ticket.
There are clearly two possible outcomes on 31 December 2025 for Blackbird.
Firstly Blackbird may have been taken over, and SS /IM have made it clear that they will not sell out for less than at least $1 billion, and they believe that they are setting out to build a company worth alot more than that.
It seems to me that a sell out for less than $1 billion would only happen if there was a serious financial problem in the company that was impossible to repair.
Secondly, Blackbird may continue under the current ownership structure, and in that case, the share price will be the result of:
1. Blackbird's commercial progress during 2025.
2. The prospects for Blackbird's profitable growth going forward.
3. The technical achievements/ breakthroughs of their competitors.
4. The health of international stock markets.
IMHO |
If you are guessing what the share price will be next Christmas, the most sensible guess will depend on why you are guessing. If the closest guess wins a cash prize, the sensible guess will be not too far from today's share price, or indeed less, so I am reluctant to add my guess. But there isn't a prize, so the guess is a bit meaningless.
I've made a satisfying return on my money over 60 years buying stocks that the market had abandoned but which I thought might yet do well. Blackbird is a perfect choice for that strategy. Unfortunately I have already put in more than I have for any share, and at a much higher price than 5p, so I am as depressed as many here are. I wonder if I am getting old and lazy, or rather, I'm sure I am, but the stock market has lost its way. As happened in the late 19th century, the robber barons are taking over the economy. More and more people are giving up on stock selection, and are 'buying the index', which is effectively betting that big companies can crush any challenger. Bitcoin is the perfect example: it has no value to society, indeed it has negative value, being only useful to those who want to make financial transactions that damage society, yet it has roared ahead: it has done well so people assume it will go on doing well.
I'm afraid we risk another correction such as was kicked off in 1920 USA. That won't just affect bitcoin. The super rich don't spend their own money, they borrow against their assets. Either they become even richer, or if things go badly they may end up only rich. If things go really badly, then large swathes of society end up poor, as wealth disappears, Banks go bust, or are saved by transferring the pain somewhere else. Pension pots evaporate. House prices fall and mortgaged property gets repossessed. Jobs disappear, economies collapse.
So I pull the blanket over my head, and wish us all a safe outcome. Absolutely no point in selling Blackbird at this price, but no point in pretending there is no risk. |
Is it me or are there a lot more categories than before?
All 100% - which is great. |
The share price is irrelevant.
What matters is paying users.
I hope they continue to build the business, that means the technology, user numbers and strategic partnerships.
Then the BIRD will fly.
££££ not pence |
Happy New Year to the DODO crew
My prediction for the share price is 1p by end of 2025 |
£12.37 it will be one day ... probably not by this time next year. |
25-30p touch woodRealistically I think the share price at Xmas 2026 is where we might finally, if all goes well, see the huge figure we're all hoping for.Happy New Year all! |
There are two ways to go in 2025. I am going to stick my neck out!!............
1. An agreed sale of Blackbird is a possibility. Who knows at what price. Maybe £6 per share?? Because I don't expect SS and IM would agree to sell out for less than this amount.
2. Going it alone, the share price on 31.12.2025 may be 89p. A big increase on today because of Blackbird's amazing technology finally hitting a sweet spot in the market with elevate.io |
I think that the last chance to buy at current prices before BIRD begins it assault on £12 and the stratosphere may be in the next 10 days or so. The launch of the paying product is very important but if I were trying to create a wow factor naming a substantial number of paying users would certainly be near the top of my list. But a collaboration with a major player that wants to enter the mass video market would really create a shock wave. AWS have been very supportive and stand to get substantial income from their Cloud interests but entering the video market would offer really big margins for them or any other entrant that has the resources and the connections. |
I wish all my BIRD friends a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
"Let's make BIRD great again".. |
Nick
Ask the remuneration committee that and why they think the LTIP threshold tomorrow should be 50% of that it is today. |
There will be some dilution, in the region of 5-10%.
It is win / win, but there is no risk of capital on their behalf and the award they grant themselves could eventually be worth billions if IM's "tens of billions" is hit.
It goes beyond sharing in success, but it's not unique to BIRD, remuneration committees are out of control imo. |
I’m as ignorant as the next man on all this malarkey so just a question to confirm my thoughts here.
If I own say 10,000 shares worth £475 today and the LTIP thresholds are met, I still own those same 10,000 shares and they are now worth £1500 but the directors get a bit more cash for more than tripling the worth of my shares and hanging in for another couple of years?
If that’s the case, I can’t see a problem with that. |
bonio
Why do you say elevate is a failure? |
Yes. Admin, keeping track of shares admitted and options outstanding. |
is the second RND just a standard end of year announcement? |
Time limited options with a fair exercise price. Simple and fair to board and shareholders alike.
Take a look at the recent APTA incentive plan if you want to see how it should be done. |
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