NickB I can understand the logic of being taken out but the facts now make a pre-release bid unlikely. A bid after the paid release does make sense for any bidder as they will have some feedback on the rate of take up.
But the biggest obstacle are the the directors and the employees. No bidder will proceed if they are not on side. Their other problem is setting a price that will win over more than 90% of all shareholders, otherwise they would be left with a minority holding of shareholders or worse if over 25% remain. If the takeup is fast the price will likely be much, much higher as going it alone will be a genuine option. |
I love all this positivity.
🙂🙂 |
SS I believe has designed the technology for mass adoption and I reckon a tech giant is part of his equation for that mass adoption to happen. |
Chris
I think 9% is a high figure more likely 5% (of a very big number)
Signing up for a free account is so easy and no barrier to entry
CapCut has started advertising on its free level I understand.
The numbers can get very big hence it’s reasonable to think big tech like Google would want it for their platform
I’m sticking with my theory of 3-6 months either side of paid launch for being taken out, if not we are staying independent and building the business |
chriscallen
I hear what you say and respect your logic.
The team at Blackbird will no doubt be weighing in the balance the preferred route to maximising the future success and payback of elevate.io
Risk management is a very important consideration.
I have never met SS, but if I was in his shoes, and with his shareholding, I could imagine the feelgood factor of teaming up with a giant who would establish my technology breakthrough quickly as a world beater. It might be difficult to resist!! |
One thing is certain: if BIRD has got deals lined up with products that complement elevate.io or even one of the big players adopting it nothing will be said until elevate paying version is released.
It would be very disappointing if less than 9% of users paid for elevate once it gets into its stride. On BIRDs figures (2nd iteration by Allenby) on 1m users they should be making a profit in excess of £300M. BIRD shouldn't be piling it high and selling it cheap. It's a world leading, quality product and selling it at a discount is foolish as people only really value what hey pay for. |
Salmon
I haven’t yet watched the Bump video.
Sounds interesting.
Behind the scenes action seems pretty plausible to me. |
Nick B and Cyberhub
Very interesting contributions.
The Canva story was very interesting and encouraging and I also very much enjoyed watching the following youtube video about David Lieb who founded Bump with a team of 30 people.
When Bump was fading as a product, he approached Google with a demo of his concept of a photo product called Photoroll that his team had produced.
Google liked it and he says that Google ultimately bought his company and commissioned him to rebuild Photoroll with Google technology. The team size was increased to 120 (20 from the Bump team and an extra 100 people from Google).
They finished the product within 9 months and Google launched it as Google photos so it never entered the marketplace as Photoroll.
Since the potential market is so big for elevate, I do wonder whether behind the scenes there is something similar going on now with elevate. |
cyber yes an inspiring video documentary
Interesting numbers from you, also worth realising that Canva has a lot of growth ahead of it. |
 Yes all very inspiring...
Latest figures I can find on Canva:
"Canva was most recently valued in April 2024 at over US$26bn (A$40bn), earns over $1.7bn in revenue, has 16m paying subscribers and 185m monthly users."
So two key facts from this:
* Paying subscribers pay about $110 p.a. in fees. I suspect that "revenue" in the quoted text refers to "net revenue", as the UK price quoted is £100 p.a. for individual users, so $125. As a SAAS-type company I think they probably have a very high gross margin of 85-90%.
* 8.5% of monthly users are paying subscribers - a very healthy %age IMO
Extrapolate to Elevate?
Storage costs will be higher for large video files so Elevate will have to charge more. Equally their freebie users will cost more as (even with restricted storage) a lot of users means substantial cash to pay. But hopefully paying video editors will understand why they need to pay (say) £250 p.a. instead of £100? It's still very small beer for any serious video editor / vlogger. IMO a small distributed team of 6 people (say video editors on a multinational's corporate comms team, or a marketing company with several offices, or a training/educational video company, or a decent-sized YouTube channel's video production team) wouldn't think twice about paying 6 x £250 = £1500 p.a. *if* Elevate delivers faster, and/or more efficient, and/or higher quality videos.
A YT channel I follow (Mentour Pilot) was recently explaining how they have a team of 5 content creators and video editors distributed around Europe and the US - a perfect client for Elevate! And with 2m subscribers, why not offer that channel free use of Elevate in return for giving it a plug, and/or a commission on anyone signing up?
As for conversion rates, never mind 8.6%, if we can get to even 5% of users willing to pay, that means we only need approx 200,000 users to hit breakeven. Surely that's not an excessive target in the first year of a proper continual marketing programme? I mean we've already got 40,000 users! Yes it's not clear how many are reasonably frequent ("monthly") users, but the 40,000 were achieved with what we understand was minimal one-off marketing.
Without wanting to state the bleedin' obvious, progress all depends on both the quality/usefulness of the finished product, and a professionally rolled out marketing campaign. Not long to wait now!
Touch wood we will be in a very different place by next Xmas.
GLA NAI |
Fantastic 14min mini documentary on the early days of Canva as just an idea and Melanie Perkins with her vision for everyone to be able to design, and how she got investors
Lots of parallels with elevates vision
Very much worth a watch |
Sorry bonio my frustration with your 5p to launch got the better of me. |
I didn't say it was nick
How about you stop putting words in everyone's mouth? |
bonio
That’s irrelevant to the investment case. |
Who cares? They have their agenda we have BIRD’s.
Seriously |
So I was right about a seller. Could be at 5p up until launch. |
To extrapolate from Chris.
Pbt of 50p per share, a multiple of 32, SBS is a billionaire, I’m a multimillionaire and so is anyone with more than 125k shares.
Just like that.
Get with the program people, talk of a share price of 30p is just nonsense, assuming we build paying users.
££££ not pence |
Nice post Chris
Eventual Total potential is to see video editing and clipping tools on nearly every desktop in the world
Google Docs level of normality
Video is an essential part of life’s communication
But much of it will need editing and crafting to be effective.
The only way to do that is through the web browser that everyone has. |
Thanks MK
I must have left by accident of mouse!! |
thx ssb for supporting. salmon9 it shows you having left on '02 Jan 2025 16:21:57' but rejoined 3rd jan so the universe looks like back in alignment. |
I see they published a 500k sell at 4.75p from yesterday, after today’s close.
02-Jan-25 12:14:01 4.75 500,000 |
What we do know is that SR had a plan when he approached Bird and sio far he has stuck to it. The next step once everything is lined up and proven to work and to be reliable is the launch of the paying version. from memory he didn't say how they would get to 1M paying users but that was his initial target. BIRD has recruited 3 NEDs who have experience in marketing to consumers so they come with expertise that will influence what methods and software are adopted e.g. AdeK is an NED of William Hill so she is likley to know how high volume customer transactions are managed.
The consequence of a successful launch is a rapid build up of cash and profits. 1M paying users (the first target) even at the lowest expected average monthly subscription(£25) yields £300M in receipts. At very worst they don't expect costs to exceed 30% so that generates £210M of cash and profit before tax i.e. over 50p a share. If they end up paying £1.50 for each user which is what they said the first recruits in September 2024 cost that 50p will be much higher. What will the share price be then? By the end of 2 full years they might even be generating so much cash that they buy back some shares or pay their first dividend e.g 5p a share would cost them less than £20M... that would certainly interest pension funds and financial institutions paying annuities.
I don't think even the most knowledgeable members on this Board have yet grasped how much elevate.io can gain customers in markets that have not even been mentioned to date. I certainly haven't but I can think of things I use Google for that video would transform, probably wiping out their existing competitors within 12 mths. How much is that worth to them and what woukd they pay to stop a competitor deploying it first? |
Good thinking Salmon
They are VERY analytical, very measured in execution and will have carefully developed their go to market strategy.
It’s the same approach I have picked up from the way elevate has technically progressed, every update has been methodical and perfectly implemented no short cuts or compromises for short term gains which they could have done |
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