Still waiting for Anne, Youri and Nick to buy some stock in the market.
Would have thought now is the perfect time, at 5.25p.
Maybe they don’t believe elevate will succeed. |
Adobe aren’t interested in elevate.io.
They will build their own, with all the bells and whistles.
I don’t think anyone is interested.
We are going to have to go it alone.
That’s why we are down here, because no one believes they can do it, and we will run out of money,
Plus they will struggle to do a fund raise as well, because institutions have chucked so much money at them already, and got nowhere.
Let’s hope they can succeed, and prove the market wrong, |
Chris
Correct |
bonio
I kinda of hope Adobe doesn’t buy us we are better suited to big tech because of distribution and Hyper scale video manipulation.
As far as engineering team going to Adobe they can work on other things you know!
That said Adobe is going to build a web based video editor they have said so, they do know it’s the future of creative apps they have also said that.
see Figma which they tried to buy for $20 Billion but left it too late and have now lost that market
And of course Canva for web browser graphics design which is a tremendous threat.
Video is next |
The problem for Adobe is that they can employ 1000 people for 10 years and pay out a large fortune and still not have a viable product let alone one to rival elevate.io... In other words the essence of the AVID problem that SBS defined some 3 years ago I think but made worse by the creation of elevate. All the time that passes while they try to find a competitive route risks more new patents from BIRD that constrain what is open to them as competitors and raises the likely cost of any deal with BIRD |
Who knows.
But all we have is that limited release was November 2023, general release was in March 2024 - so at a minimum Adobe had 8 months to look over Elevate and and at most 12 months prior to pulling the trigger on a competitor.
I'll also throw in they never licensed PBB in over 3 years either.
There is no body of evidence or action there to suggest they are interested in BIRD at the moment. |
You may be right, bonio
But I doubt they can build a scalable product? |
My guess is they will build their own using the Scenery team.
In 9 months, at least, of assessing Elevate all they have done is pick up another product.
There is no reason to think they are buying Elevate. |
Their CTO (I think it was)left Scenery and went to work down the road at Adobe and took a few engineers with him.
Adobe will build a browser based video editor it has to. |
Which is why they picked up Scenery? |
I’m sure any competition (including Adobe) will be testing elevate in their lab, and they won’t be interested in bells and whistles features but core hyper scale performance
Add the public information and they will know more than enough to influence them.
Ian Stephen and Sumit could now give a giant US tech companies executives one mind blowing presentation and importantly real demonstration under NDA
But have they? |
It looks to me as though the majority of shares traded today are buys judging by the two price levels traded. Maybe I am wrong.
The number of people who really understand what Blackbird/elevate will soon have is probably be very low IMHO.
The detail provided in the June presentation was amazingly detailed and specific. I would have thought more detailed than might have been expected.
That presentation will probably have been watched by competitors as well as investors. Maybe that's why Scenery packed up. The patents maybe made SS feel there is no need for secrecy and maybe a benefit from competitors seeing how complete a product elevate will soon be.
Two of the clear options would be pack up or pay up!! |
Isn’t it great that the sellers who aren’t willing to see their investment through won’t have any shares soon😀
Very strange time to give up imho |
Sellers back, well offered at 5.25p. |
Yes complete service
It’s going to be frictionless between services |
In the presentation, IM, SS and SR stated several times that elevate isn't just a video editor, but is firstly a "video content creation platform and a video management platform, and then it will additionally be a video distribution platform."
Sumit and Stephen explained that that complete combination doesn't exist anywhere else.
They want elevate's subscribers to, in due course, have a complete service.
Sumit emphasised that because elevate is in the cloud, they are bringing it all together. This will be a challenge to the market of installed software professional editing products.
He said people in the industry are shocked to see that elevate is in a browser. |
On distribution I asked them if the Blackbird spark video player can be embedded into any website and their answer is yes.
There are a lot of websites in the world and embedding YouTube in them is a poor choice. |
IMHO
Investors should stay focused.
Don’t self sabotage with doubt |
Chris
Great post |
Excellent perspective chriscallen. |
Yes the Distribution aspect is fascinating
VERY strategic thinking they have really thought this through.
Once you join all the dots it’s a 💡 moment 😀
elevate isn’t just an editor it is a creator video platform |
 The time to judge whether BIRD is a good investment will not be before the end of Q1 2025. In the past BIRD did not have a credible product for a mass market, now it has exacly that. It also has a CPO who is on record that can seen online and so far he has stuck to what he outlined then. Once released everyone will be able to see if it looks likely that the initial target of 1M paying users is achievable. The downside then will be triggered if they look like falling materially short. Equally the upside will be triggered if the numbers of paying users rises quickly. SR has his own experience with Sony Vegas and 3 NEDs who know how to expand a tech company fast.
From past history Adobe which floated in 1986 launched what is now its current product in 2013. It had 1.4M active subscribers at the end of that year and currently has 29.5M. In that year 2013 Adobe had 12,499 employees. But much of the activity was and is in respect of static material not video.
By contrast BIRDs base is miniscule, its payroll must be around 50 currently and it is now focused on the new video product. If it hits its target of 1M paying users on the lower figures of the first financial model (income £25 per user per month) they will hit £300M turnover in a full year. That model assumed total expenses of 30% of turnover and on that basis a profit of £210M would be expected. There are just over 387M shares currently in issue. So the downside is a share price of 0p and the upside is a share with an annualised 56p of earnings which is growing fast and which must be reflected in the share price So it all depends on whether you think SR and his team can deliver what they said they were aiming to achieve or whether elevate.io becomes a failed product. At the moment they are on schedule and the product looks to be very reliable with tools and features not available elsewhere. |
Well said everyone.
At several points in the June presentation IM/SS/SR made it very clear that in due course Blackbird's greatest financial potential is in facilitating video distribution.
If they aren't taken over in the near term, they seem very clear about their forward path for taking the company to a position where it's value would be tens of billions of dollars! |
Yes all good and on track. Getting exciting for the new year. Ignore the hateful comments. 😊 |
…hand holding rns 😂 |
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