 BIRD is a very odd company. It may be unique in not making a profit since it floated on AIM back in 2000. But that is history.
Now it looks like it really has a world beating product that will enjoy hefty profit margins with patents to protect its technology. So it should be able to grow extremely fast and yet remain cash positive. That is unusual (though some would say that they have had the benefit of enough placings in past years).
A company that is highly cash generative with a protected product is likely to attract long term institutional investors which need the steady cash flow to meet their own commitments e.g. insurance policies, annuities. The expected return will, of course, take into account the potential for growth in future years and how fast that return rises. On 4th September JP Morgan produced a report showing "London-listed IT companies were trading at an average forward P/E ratio of close to 35 at the end of June. US tech firms were lower at 25.7"
So that should make the bottom for any calculation of the expected p/e at least 30 but if BIRD can present a persuasive case it could be much higher. Currently today the average 3 year p/e ratio has risen from 35 to 43.7
SSBs suggested upper price target no longer looks impossible. |
And our advantage is significant as we have lived and breathed them for so long. If they were going to fail, they would have already done so. |
You can buy 10,000 shares for around £700
Too risky? |
Gemeimnis2
Yes, I agree with you. |
Share price for me is simple
A mixture of:
- very little institutional money going into AIM - especially micro caps
- track record of very low revenues and loss making
- as a result of the above, not many investors (institutional or otherwise) are looking into BIRD - and even if they did , they would need to be convinced that this is not another false dawn
Arguably this creates an opportunity for those who have delved deep and like what they see |
Yes it’s a lot of work to really understand Blackbird.
Our investor advantage over ‘the market’ |
I still think that it has been a huge amount of effort to understand the ins and outs of what Blackbird/elevate is doing and what it might achieve.
We have been prepared to do that because we were already deeply invested in Blackbird before elevate. We are very motivated to see the way forward and hopefully see a way to success!
I think outsiders would be daunted by trying to understand what is going on and what the future might be, so they probably look around for an investment which seems more straightforward to seemingly understand. |
‘Plus we aren’t even sure it will be a success, otherwise we would all still be loading up in size.’
Some of us have financial restrictions!
Turning your your point 180 around why are we not all selling? |
Cabi
Yes I can understand, I smile 😊 but I’m not being influenced by them!
Should I be influenced by these market investors? |
NickB
We believe, but surely you can understand why many don’t.
Plus we aren’t even sure it will be a success, otherwise we would all still be loading up in size. |
Cabi
So with Hard evidence of success I can buy for 7.5p ?
Interesting |
Concentrate
With respect I think you are just using emotional feelings to come up with those figures which is fine for you of course. |
Exactly.
History shows all the previous products were met with excitement by those invested. Customers were harder to convince than those invested. Great things were apparently on the horizon.
Then the focus changed to looking at something else on the horizon.
Perhaps this time really is different, but it's not clear it is yet. |
I don’t think it’s the case that share price is down here because of lack of knowledge by investors.
It’s down here because they lose money, and have never successfully monetised any of their products in 23 years, and investors wonder if elevate is going to be any different.
People now want hard evidence they can monetise it, and would rather pay a higher price, than gamble at current levels. |
Nick, I don't. If I put faith in the market there's no way I'd be investing in this AIM company.
15% bankrupt
40% 7p
30% 14p
10% - £2
5% - £15
Expected value: £1.02
Obviously these figures have been plucked out of the sky, a bit of fun, no strong rationale. I think some people are being a bit tunnel visioned. Someone could develop a new tech tomorrow.
Salmon - sort of fair enough, but it wasn't the point of the exercise in determining an exit value.IM and SS will want an exit also. |
NickB
I agree that the share price indicates that the investing market has little knowledge about the potential for Blackbird/elevate.
Therefore the share price is disconnected from what is going on within the company in terms of the amazing commercial prospects for it's developments, and it's logical potential for a much higher share price. |
Concentrate
Why do you put so much faith in ‘the market’ ? |
Concentrate
The one option which wasn't listed by you, was continuing to go it alone as an independent company indefinitely.
If that was included in the list, I would suggest 25% for this, and that would mean the 70% and 30 % in my list would be reduced to say 60% and 15%. |
💯. I'm nearly 10 years invested and the certainty expressed on this BB is not reflected in the share price |
Noting your reassurance on the private take over though - my main fear.
Would be gutted if we sold to management backed by PE, and then in 2 years it flys. |
Nor do the posters concerned. If they did, they'd have every single cent they have in the company. |
The market doesn't agree with the 100% certainty that the company will be sold for £1+ though. |
I agree with those numbers Salmon. |
Concentrate
It was interesting to see your somewhat light heated assessment. I have listed my assessment as the second number alongside each one. We have such limited facts about a possible take over that the main basis for assessment has to be intuition!
15% bankrupt 0% They haven't come so far for this to happen. They are survivors.
40% Taken private for small sum, say £30m. 0% I have received a reassurance on this point.
30% Acquired for tech from competitor, for modest premium (say £60m) 0% There is no way they would sell for so little after all the work and the current demonstrable achievement in terms of reaching touching distance of a complete product.
10% - £1+ acquisition. 70% Presumably this means between £1 and £9.99
5% - £10+ acquisition (though huge viral success) 30%
Decent expected value. 100% Agreed |
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