"The big players must understand from what they see now, what elevate and the player could become in their hands. So what on earth is stopping them"?
Would have to be all share bid for cash as BIRD is way too gone ahead Tech wise.
100% have too..
No semi buy it all or nothing.
Did I mention the Player? Lol
£55 a share easy
No advice.
SSB
BWTFDIK |
2 petabytes of storage eh. I hope we're not paying for all of that today with only 10,000 users? |
Bandwidth and Bytes are not the same. But it’s nice to know the bandwidth is there. |
hornblower
Good question
This was an interesting post from Stephen the other day on X regarding the Player and Blackbird technology efficiency so somewhat relevant to the editor
No spyware, no cookies, no fuss:
Another sprinkling of upgrades today:
* infrastructure for even faster publishing
* Improved keyboard shortcuts
As my video above clocks in at 1,000 views, it is worth knowing this Fun Fact:
The Blackbird codec is so efficient for cloud editing, that the rack space for our 2,000,000 GB of storage in Enterprise comes with enough bandwidth to support, for free, an additional 1,000,000 player views every day.
Feel free to join this journey by clipping and resharing any video you come across in this experimental format. |
Anyone any idea of roughly what the data costs will be of supporting a million users (whether they are paying subscribers or not)? |
"only on 1m subscribers".
Good point bonio
Google search says
Canva Has 170 Million Active Monthly Users As Of Q1 2024
Out of these 170 million, 16 million are the platform's paying subscribers. The number of Canva users grew rapidly between 2019 and 2021. Within three years, the app gained 80 million users. |
£££ not pence |
Worth more than the current 7.5p imho |
That gives a yield of <1% , so something must be off somewhere. I’m too busy to dive in right now.
Must be to do with the PE of 50.
Mind boggling numbers though. |
"only on 1m subscribers". |
Absolutely it's scary to think if you bring additional income streams in such as Marketplace Rake and other fees that can be generated. What's hard is getting the P/E right and the NIM. Which could well be higher or lower. Scary numbers all the same and that's only on 1 million subscribers. |
Orte
Good figures.
Now do the player! |
YouTube Shorts is getting a makeover.
The short-form, vertical video format, which YouTube launched in 2021, is seeing its maximum video length go up to three minutes from 1 minute.
That’s significant because it ramps up the need for editing and time spent by creators on editing.
3 mins is a more suitable length for creators to tell stories and that requires a lot of editing to make content great for a 3 minute video. |
Oh I based it on 500000000 million shares in circulation assuming some dilution over the next few years. |
 The below is based on 1 million subscribers paying £30 with an 80% margin. It includes a P/E ratio of 50 (Disruptive Tech) and a Net Interest Margin of 60%1. Calculate Annual Revenue: * Monthly revenue per subscriber: £30 * Annual revenue per subscriber: £30/month * 12 months = £360 * Total annual revenue: £360/subscriber * 1,000,000 subscribers = £360,000,0002. Calculate Gross Profit: * Gross margin: 80% * Gross profit: £360,000,000 * 80% = £288,000,0003. Calculate Net Income: * Net income margin (NIM): 60% * Net income: £288,000,000 * 60% = £172,800,0004. Calculate Earnings Per Share (EPS): * Number of shares: 500,000,000 * EPS: £172,800,000 / 500,000,000 shares = £0.35 (rounded up from £0.3456)5. Calculate Theoretical Share Price: * P/E ratio: 50 * Theoretical share price: £0.35 * 50 = £17.506. Estimate Dividend: * Dividend payout ratio: 40% * Total dividends: £172,800,000 * 40% = £69,120,000 * Dividend per share: £69,120,000 / 500,000,000 shares = £0.14 (rounded up from £0.13824)Summary:With 1 million subscribers and a P/E ratio of 50, Blackbird PLC could theoretically have: * Share price: £17.50 * Dividend: £0.14 per shareImportant Notes: * These figures are significantly lower than with 10 million subscribers, highlighting the impact of scale on a company's valuation. * A P/E of 50 still implies high growth expectations, even with the smaller subscriber base. * All the previous caveats about assumptions and real-world factors still apply. |
Salmon
Agreed which is why I think they will move sooner than later.
Big players are also under pressure to provide growth and Cloud video has the scale and importance to make a difference even for a trillion dollar company.
The pressure is on them, I don’t think they will hang around a couple of years while we build our customer base!
Hence my ‘theory’ |
The current valuation also highlights how dull some institutional investors must be to keep selling down their share holding in Blackbird. I would go so far as to judge their behaviour as gross negligence and incompetence!! |
The huge gap between today's valuation and what it could feasibly become is so colossal that it makes it even harder for me to understand why an aggressive big player doesn't step in right now.
It sounds like a once in a generation opportunity for a big player to capture a unique prize worth it's weight in gold. The longer they wait, the less chance they will have of pulling it off, as others join the chase.
A big player would have the existing market presence to fast track this opportunity to a realisation of huge success, before anyone else could respond in a meaningful way.
The big players must understand from what they see now, what elevate and the player could become in their hands. So what on earth is stopping them? |
johnveals
My £6 target is personal to me, it's the point at which my wife can afford to retire. I certainly won't be selling all my shares at that point, but will need to sell every so often to pay the bills. I can't see the point of selling any until I need the cash as BIRD is the best investment around and even at £60 I will use BIRD as a bank and by then we will have an excellent dividend anyway, so no need to sell any hopefully, and I will have a healthy pension.
What will the dividend be at £6 and £60, any guesses? |
Interesting last few posts.
For me £6 would be ‘life changing’ but it certainly isn’t the limit of my ambition.
Fortunes can be lost by selling too early.
Speculating about this is fine, but there is still a mountain to climb, one step at a time.
£££ not pence |
Well, that makes SSB revised £55 conservative then. As that would only be about 22 Billion. |
The next couple of months are likely to be crucial to the launch because any statement on the number of users will show the base line for potential growth which should be built on once the paying options are released. I don't think the figures fully take into account the fact that BIRD is truly Cloud Native and the impact that has on costs, margins and speed. |
Ortegaworm
Reference Cloud companies
Figma’s $20bilion valuation
Canva $30B ish
Video should be worth more.
Growth curve is interesting
When every computer on the planet with an internet connection and Chrome browser is just a simple registration away from being a free subscriber.
The Player can be accessed by anyone for viewing clipping and sharing
Just needs creators to upload video for it.
We have no factories or retail outlets to build and finance all the physical is done by Amazon AWS across their global network.
Very unusual growth business situation I reckon. |
Good grief, I'm expecting at least £6 by the end of next year. Based on growth and takeout. That's only £2b !!
Do people on here understand the word 'disruptive' |
I have plenty SSB and are holding on to them and will continue adding. Just out of interest, do you have any model that demonstrates how we get to £55 that you can share either here or on the Guild? |
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