Bens Creek Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 27/10/2022 15:32

All small size trades so far today.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/10/2022 15:22

OK...lets see what was produced and when as per their own RNSs:

30/8/22 Final Results RNS:
Ø Stock of raw and clean coal of 21.8k tons as at 31 March 2022, valued at $1.5m
Ø Total raw coal production of 64.8k tons of which 43.5k tons sold in the three months to March 2022

so, in four months to 31/3/22 as they started mining 1/12/21 the clean coal equivalent of 64.8k ROM is 32.4k. So 8.1k tons a month.

6/6/22 Commencement of Rail Delivery RNS:
"With the necessary buildup of Inventory (circa 30,000 tons of clean and 5,000 tons of ROM, equating to circa $12m of revenue), ahead of the first train arriving"

30k clean plus 5k ROM is the equivalent of 32.5k clean as at 30/5/22
Stock carried forward 1/4/22 was 21.8k ROM which is equivalent of 10.8k clean
So output for April and May was 32.5k-10.8k equals 21.7k clean tons.

so, in two months April and May 22 they produced 10.85k tons each month.

30/8/22 Final Results RNS:

"ü 184k raw tons of coal have been stockpiled"m (April to August).

That 184k tons is equivalent of 92k clean tons for 5 months April to August 22
Take off 21.7k tons calculated for April and May
Therefore output for June to August (three months) was 60.5k clean tons.

so, in three months June to August 22 they produced 20.2k clean tons per month

So, we have it exactly....
Dec 21. 8.1k
Jan 22 8.1k
Feb 22 8.1k
Mar 22 8.1k
Apr 22 10.85k
May 22 10.85k
Jun 22 20.2k
Jul 22 20.2k
Aug 22 20.2k

and that makes absolute sense as second shift would have doubled production in late May 22.
It is also why the share price is where it is. Why should it have to be me to demonstrate this truth? You shareholders should not need a naysayer to point out the shape of output and have Adam talking rubbish on Sunday Roast. The facts are that they cannot exceed 20k per month and at that rate it loses money because it is so expensive to contour bench mine with HWMers when you have to build the benches.

[seagreen] 27/10/2022 12:47

Good moaning Patt

Listen very carefully I shall only say this once

There is a huge diference between

Average annual output (Total annual production divided by number of months)

and

Current average output in full production (Total production since two shifts divided by number of months two shifts were fully operational)

SG

[purchaseatthetop] 27/10/2022 12:10

Glad Seagreen has retired from this board. Otherwise we might have overly long posts to read…zzzzzzzzzz…..

I deal in RNSs. They say average output for last five months was 17k tons and August was 12k ton. That was one HWMer, two shifts and good weather. Adam might say they are doing 40k tons a month but he has been saying that since May and it is clearly rubbish. Only RNSs count. Sunday Roast is rubbish for idiots.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/10/2022 11:43

Stocky. You say that cost per ton will fall with higher output due to Operational Gearing…fixed costs within production.

I would question that. The Megahighwall contract is cost per ton mined ROM so that would not change. There may be some fixed costs within processing but these would be relatively minor. I do not see cost per ton dropping much.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/10/2022 11:33

Stocky. They have been operating a double shift HWMer since May and never got above 17k tons per month. Why would they ever get to 40k tons?

The facts are, and the reality is, as I have posted for months and months, that HWMing is excellent to extend the mining in an existing open pit mine where it is now more economic to scavenge as the edges to mine deep into these seams. Or on a low gradient existing contour bench mine where the same can be done. Where it is completely inefficient is in narrow and steep West Virginia where contour benches have to be build just to then mine. The volume of rock and the required blasting means you have to shift 100k tons of rock to mine 1km of seam and get 40k tons of coal.

That is why they have really struggled. West Virginia is underground mining for a reason.

[papillon] 27/10/2022 11:10

Any miner, whether mining met coal, gold, copper, or iron ore, etc, depends 100% on the price of met coal, gold, copper, or iron ore, respectively, for profitability. Whether it is profitable, or whether it goes bust!
Many previously profitable US met coal miners went bust around 8 - 10 years ago as the Met coal price plummeted.
If you think the met coal price will hold steady, or rise, then buy and hold BEN. If you think it will fall then sell. Simples.

[stocky50] 27/10/2022 10:57

oh and ... 1m tonnes of annual production by April 2023 - is very plausible if production goes to 80,000 / month with the 2nd HWM'er.

The actual time to ramp-up, although important, is insignificant in the life of a mine (which could be 10's of years in the future).

As I pointed out earlier - The Management have achieved a lot in a short amount of time.

[stocky50] 27/10/2022 10:54

Patt - Am not disagreeing with you in that the ramp up to production has been slower than anticipated. All i am saying is that now that BC is at circa 40,000 / month, i do expect the ramp up to 80,000 per month will happen.

I think your cost analysis is overstated. There would have been huge operational costs during the ramp-up period which will distort production costs / tonne. We will only really get to know this once the production is stabilised near full production.

And remember - the cost per tonne will go down significantly as production increases - due simply to the fact that the fixed costs will now be absorbed by higher production.

In my estimate NET MARGIN give certain levels of production is an easier metric to get your head around.

I say again - Its difficult to measure a company based on past performance during a growth /. ramp-up period. This needs to be viewed on current production (which we have been told is 40k/ tonne) and then factor in the increase.

[purchaseatthetop] 26/10/2022 20:37

And there is another Sunday Roast out today. Evidently output will be 1m tons by April 23. When will they ever learn? Embarrassing. Ramptastic.

[oapknob1] 26/10/2022 19:19

What is the break even then into profit monthly tonnage in your view PATT ?

[purchaseatthetop] 26/10/2022 19:12

Stocky....actual output:

25/7/22 RNS: "The Company's estimated production from April to July 2022 is likely to be approximately 80,000 clean tons (160,000 raw tons) of metallurgical coal."

30/8/22 RNS:

"Current trading outlook
Ø Production steadily increasing month on month. Between April and August 2022:
ü 184k raw tons of coal have been stockpiled"

Therefore, between 1/4/22 and 30/8/22 (five months) 92k tons of clean coal have been produced (184k/2). That is about 18k tons per month. Actually according to their own RNS they only produced 12k in August (92k less 80k in the first RNS).

Quite why anybody thinks they have ever produced any more is beyond me. They have told us all of this in the RNSs. It is just that some people just read the words that make them happy.

Glad to help. BTW...at 18k tons a month they are losing money.

[oapknob1] 26/10/2022 17:38

Thanks. Looks interesting

[gotabsirius] 26/10/2022 17:21

Yes, before opex and capex. Should net more than current company valuation next year....all being well

[oapknob1] 26/10/2022 16:24

80,000T per month at $280 per ton gives revenue of $22,400,000 per month. Is this the ball park for BEN ? $268,800,000 per annum before capex?

[stocky50] 26/10/2022 13:42

How do you get the 17k max per month ? In Aug the company was doing 40k per month. The 17k you mention is an average - and yes i agree that the ramp up to a stabilised 40k per month has been slow - but like i keep saying, its a new business and ramp-up has been delayed - but will happen (in my opinion).

Interesting that you say nothing has changed? Lets see what management has delivered....

Listed 1 year ago - No production - Bad infrastructure
All repairs completed (wash plant / railway line / loading bays / etc .....)
Production started in Dec / Jan
Company starts selling raw coal to get revenue in - due to wash plant delays
Sign-off from railway company to use tracks
HMW and underground mining starts to ramp up to circa 15-20k per month
Ramp up continues despite adverse conditions - with measures to limit damage
July / Aug - double shift starts - so production is closer to 40K per month
10 trains sold and done - (Am sure we will get more before end of the year)
At 15 trains for the year - it will be circa $30-40m (no idea of what the selling price is)
New Permit has arrived and mining started on new area
Yellow equipment has been purchased - and continues to be purchased to enhance margins
Company has plans to double production to 80k / month - and have started work on benching for 2nd HWM'er
Market Cap at start was £35m - Now is £100m
Company has seen much higher market cap (£350m at one time i think) - BUT this was due to global met coal pricing - And so if global prices go back up - Am sure we could get there again
Regular updates to PI's - perhaps too many updates !

And yet you say nothing has changed ?

I dont know many companies that start from nothing and end up generating 10's of millions in revenue (and hopefully profits) in just 12 months.

If there are other company's like that - please drop me a note. I am interested.

[aimmafia] 26/10/2022 13:42

https://twitter.com/granthorsfall/status/1585247630266966017?s=46&t=PH0TQy8rndvuoJsOzmdeHA

[mindminer] 26/10/2022 12:53

This will keep going down until greater sales are confirmed