Why did the NAV fall by 21p in a day? |
Dismal week for them and now continuation vote to go ahead in feb as well. More performances like the last week and I suspect that it could well be wind up time , last couple of years have been very average performance wise. |
Nov fact sheet - FX delivers: |
If I get 4.40+ back I will get over it |
I certainly hope it isn't wound up, despite the discount. This is part of my Trump chaos insurance package. So as long as the discount doesn't widen I'm good.
But I wouldn't mind some goodies thrown to shareholders to tempt us to vote for continuation and/or to narrow the discount. |
They're preparing for a continuation vote in the new year as the discount has been wider than 8% for the year. Will be interesting to see how that goes. I can't see it being wound up but hopefully will sharpen focus on reducing the discount |
Where's the Tuesday nav rns? |
For folks who are a bit hazy on how BHMG runs its portfolio, a teach-in by Kepler from earlier in the month: |
Nav revised up ! |
bet they are short french debt too - what a mess they are in |
8.4% MTD (sterling) Now that's why we're here... :)
If they keep delivering those kinds of returns through all of the inevitable Trump 2.0 volatility - not to mention German and eventually French elections - this will be back to a premium in short order. |
Still on a 12 discount - should be sub 5 imho |
Pick up got to be related to chaos in German politics and bunds no longer trading on lower yields than eu bonds. Looks like the Germans will relax borrowing limits to dig their economy out of its sizeable hole - hence the bund premium is dissipating |
I am starting to like orthogonal |
Yes hopefully nav going in the right direction now. |
Roughly 3% drop in NAV between 25 October and 31 October.
I thought this was supposed to make money when interest rates are volatile... |
I averaged on this to good effect so I am in profit now |
govt debt crisis loomimg. large vol in fx and rates. fertile hunting ground for BH. a continuation vote too - this could be at a premium 3 months out... |
I have seen it twice now! |
Orthogonal is a word you don't see very often on ADVFN bulletin boards! |
As albajack implies - this holding is 'ballast' for me, insurance, sort of.
Really an orthogonal play on my other investments, to which it seems to correlate poorly. Hence, it's been lacklustre in recent years (but not recent months) while stocks have been on a tear. |
Well my call here was decent for a change |
 In answer to some of the older posts: investopedia.com/terms/g/globalmacro.asp
From what I've been reading, the past few years have not provided the ideal environment in which global macro strategies might thrive. Brevan Howard has not been alone, here. And BHMG has also been suffering from its pandemic outperformance when the NAV rose sharply - the share price even more-so, resulting in a large premium.
The share price is a function of investor demand. So with the World not having collapsed into a 28 Days Later scenario, and the NAV having been flat the past couple of years, the premium has unwound, and then some. If investors decide that there is better opportunity in the S&P 500, for example, then they might decide to sell relative underperformers and reinvest elsewhere.
I don't think that BHMG can be compared to Pershing Square. They are two different animals. PSH is basically a long-only North American equities fund which can use derivatives to protect against prices or market falls. It doesn't even hold short positions these days. It is invested in the asset class and location which have been the places to be. PSH has (or had) more in common with Third Point, in my view - but that would be another topic.
Discount control is easy when the underlying assets are easy to trade, e.g. equities, or a lot of cash is held. Think about property. A number of REITs have fallen to large discounts; their assets don't sell instantly. And open-ended property funds hold a good chunk of cash in case of redemptions, 20% or so, and these can stop redemptions if too much is being withdrawn. The liquidity of BHMG's assets has more in common with these than with an equities fund.
I've held BHMG for a number of years and think of it as a bit like an insurance policy. I'm not one for using derivatives directly to try to do this, so something that is not dependent on movement in equities' prices - and to a lesser extent, bond prices - has an appeal to me.
But if we do descend into a Planet of the Apes situation then I might think about reducing this holding and topping up elsewhere. |
If nav gets to 4.20 , I think 3.80 share price is on the cards, hence descent asymmetry from here |
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