Bh Macro Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 27/11/2024 13:15

bet they are short french debt too - what a mess they are in

[craigso] 27/11/2024 08:47

8.4% MTD (sterling) Now that's why we're here... :)

If they keep delivering those kinds of returns through all of the inevitable Trump 2.0 volatility - not to mention German and eventually French elections - this will be back to a premium in short order.

[edwardt] 26/11/2024 18:42

Still on a 12 discount - should be sub 5 imho

[edwardt] 26/11/2024 18:40

Pick up got to be related to chaos in German politics and bunds no longer trading on lower yields than eu bonds. Looks like the Germans will relax borrowing limits to dig their economy out of its sizeable hole - hence the bund premium is dissipating

[edwardt] 26/11/2024 18:38

I am starting to like orthogonal

[steve c1] 20/11/2024 08:03

Yes hopefully nav going in the right direction now.

[craigso] 06/11/2024 13:07

Roughly 3% drop in NAV between 25 October and 31 October.

I thought this was supposed to make money when interest rates are volatile...

[prokartace] 01/11/2024 11:55

I averaged on this to good effect so I am in profit now

[edwardt] 01/11/2024 11:22

govt debt crisis loomimg. large vol in fx and rates. fertile hunting ground for BH. a continuation vote too - this could be at a premium 3 months out...

[prokartace] 30/10/2024 12:09

I have seen it twice now!

[edwardt] 29/10/2024 21:40

Orthogonal is a word you don't see very often on ADVFN bulletin boards!

[greybroath] 27/10/2024 12:14

As albajack implies - this holding is 'ballast' for me, insurance, sort of.

Really an orthogonal play on my other investments, to which it seems to correlate poorly. Hence, it's been lacklustre in recent years (but not recent months) while stocks have been on a tear.

[edwardt] 07/8/2024 18:36

Well my call here was decent for a change

[albajack] 10/5/2024 20:40

In answer to some of the older posts: investopedia.com/terms/g/globalmacro.asp


From what I've been reading, the past few years have not provided the ideal environment in which global macro strategies might thrive. Brevan Howard has not been alone, here. And BHMG has also been suffering from its pandemic outperformance when the NAV rose sharply - the share price even more-so, resulting in a large premium.

The share price is a function of investor demand. So with the World not having collapsed into a 28 Days Later scenario, and the NAV having been flat the past couple of years, the premium has unwound, and then some. If investors decide that there is better opportunity in the S&P 500, for example, then they might decide to sell relative underperformers and reinvest elsewhere.


I don't think that BHMG can be compared to Pershing Square. They are two different animals. PSH is basically a long-only North American equities fund which can use derivatives to protect against prices or market falls. It doesn't even hold short positions these days. It is invested in the asset class and location which have been the places to be. PSH has (or had) more in common with Third Point, in my view - but that would be another topic.


Discount control is easy when the underlying assets are easy to trade, e.g. equities, or a lot of cash is held. Think about property. A number of REITs have fallen to large discounts; their assets don't sell instantly. And open-ended property funds hold a good chunk of cash in case of redemptions, 20% or so, and these can stop redemptions if too much is being withdrawn. The liquidity of BHMG's assets has more in common with these than with an equities fund.


I've held BHMG for a number of years and think of it as a bit like an insurance policy. I'm not one for using derivatives directly to try to do this, so something that is not dependent on movement in equities' prices - and to a lesser extent, bond prices - has an appeal to me.

But if we do descend into a Planet of the Apes situation then I might think about reducing this holding and topping up elsewhere.

[edwardt] 17/4/2024 15:52

If nav gets to 4.20 , I think 3.80 share price is on the cards, hence descent asymmetry from here

[edwardt] 12/4/2024 07:11

Added a few at these levels. Will only take a few percent uplift in nav for the share price to motor

[edwardt] 10/4/2024 17:25

Yes and clearly bonkers . That equates to a 25% return if they simply give us back nav...

[mwj1959] 09/4/2024 12:44

Near 20% NAV discount now...a reflection of poor performance?

[spooky] 26/3/2024 16:02

BH might as well give up and hand over the assets to PSH. Much better returns. They could continue to collect their management fees and go to the beach. Might need to keep it a secret though.

[affemoose] 11/3/2024 12:42

I'm out.

Good luck.

[affemoose] 11/3/2024 12:36

Share price is back at May 2020 levels.

They've been well paid for this though, so that's OK. :-/

[apollocreed1] 08/3/2024 12:55

These guys only know how to lose money. Totally incompetent and charge massive fees for their incompetence.

[affemoose] 01/3/2024 11:22

latest NAV was 400p, trading at 352.

I genuinely worry here - HL tells me Discount to Nav is at -12%

Why?

It's so opaque, drives me nuts.

[eh9] 24/1/2024 08:32

I have uk fixed income oeics and these rose in value despite the 4% inflation surprise as the underlying direction in rates is intact