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BHMG Bh Macro Limited

408.00
-3.00 (-0.73%)
30 Dec 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Bh Macro Investors - BHMG

Bh Macro Investors - BHMG

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Bh Macro Limited BHMG London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-3.00 -0.73% 408.00 16:20:04
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
411.00 407.50 414.00 408.00 411.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector
EQUITY INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 10/5/2024 20:40 by albajack
In answer to some of the older posts: investopedia.com/terms/g/globalmacro.asp


From what I've been reading, the past few years have not provided the ideal environment in which global macro strategies might thrive. Brevan Howard has not been alone, here. And BHMG has also been suffering from its pandemic outperformance when the NAV rose sharply - the share price even more-so, resulting in a large premium.

The share price is a function of investor demand. So with the World not having collapsed into a 28 Days Later scenario, and the NAV having been flat the past couple of years, the premium has unwound, and then some. If investors decide that there is better opportunity in the S&P 500, for example, then they might decide to sell relative underperformers and reinvest elsewhere.


I don't think that BHMG can be compared to Pershing Square. They are two different animals. PSH is basically a long-only North American equities fund which can use derivatives to protect against prices or market falls. It doesn't even hold short positions these days. It is invested in the asset class and location which have been the places to be. PSH has (or had) more in common with Third Point, in my view - but that would be another topic.


Discount control is easy when the underlying assets are easy to trade, e.g. equities, or a lot of cash is held. Think about property. A number of REITs have fallen to large discounts; their assets don't sell instantly. And open-ended property funds hold a good chunk of cash in case of redemptions, 20% or so, and these can stop redemptions if too much is being withdrawn. The liquidity of BHMG's assets has more in common with these than with an equities fund.


I've held BHMG for a number of years and think of it as a bit like an insurance policy. I'm not one for using derivatives directly to try to do this, so something that is not dependent on movement in equities' prices - and to a lesser extent, bond prices - has an appeal to me.

But if we do descend into a Planet of the Apes situation then I might think about reducing this holding and topping up elsewhere.
Posted at 18/1/2024 10:29 by affemoose
A couple of good articles. MasterInvestor states that Investec would be selling down a large position and the other states that they are bullish on it. I'll post the Citywire text below in case you cant login.

hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/specialist-trust-recommendations-for-2024/


hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/investec-buy-bh-macro-ahead-of-choppy-waters/a2434214

edge fund BH Macro (BHMG) is a ‘unique’ portfolio that does well in challenging market environments, according to Investec analysts, who highlighted the shares on a 13% discount as a bargain buy.

In a note, analysts Alan Brierley and Ben Newell said BH Macro has prided itself on having an ‘inverse correlation with risk assets’ since launch in 2007 and this has been ‘most pronounced during the times of peak distress’.

During the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the FTSE All Share fell 45.6% and the MSCI All Country World index dropped 54.1%, but BH Macro’s net asset value (NAV) rose 43.9%. More recently, in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and inflation worries began, the hedge fund delivered a NAV return of 20.8%, while the FTSE dropped 10.5% and the MSCI ACWI was down 22.1%.

Brierley and Newell said with low NAV volatility and minimal correlation to equities and bonds the hedge fund has a ‘natural role to play in improving portfolio diversification̵7;.


Now is also a good time to buy the £1.6bn flagship Brevan Howard hedge fund as it is sitting on a double-digit discount. The sterling share class is trading at a 12% discount to the NAV of 407p, while the US dollar share class (BHMU) is doing slightly better at a 10% discount.

As recently as September 2022, shares were trading at 22% premium but the fund had a difficult 2023 when it was hit by a ‘perfect storm’ of performance challenges, ‘unrealised fears’ that Rathbones and Investec would become forced sellers, a broad deterioration in sentiment towards the industry, and a greater appetite for risk assets.

The fund’s net asset value fell 7.1% between March and May last year after its key interest rate trade went wrong as markets priced in cuts in US interest rates following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent contagion risk. While they recovered some of the losses in the latter half of the year, the NAV was still 2.6% lower over one year.


The share price had a worse time, with the sterling share class down 23% and the US share class (BHMU) down 21.5% over the 12-month period.

The derating followed a bumper £315m share issue in February which saw the company capitalise on its strong market-bucking performance in 2022 when it returned nearly 22% to shareholders.

Nervousness around the merger of wealth managers Rathbones and Investec, who had a combined stake of more than 30%, the threshold which would ordinarily require a bid to be made under Takeover Panel rules, also weighed on the stock.

Prior to the merger’s completion, trust chair Richard Horlick warned investors the combination of the two wealth managers could create an overhang which may lead to forced selling. While the stake has been reduced, this has been minimal and steady, with the latest stock exchange notice saying that the wealth manager had just under 28% as of early November.

With Rathbones’ intentions uncertain, the board held off on buybacks in the third quarter despite the derating of the shares. However, in December when the shares hit a nadir of a 15% discount the board became more active. This activity continued into 2024 with 2.8m shares already purchased, according to stock exchange announcements.

Buybacks along with better performance should support the share price and offer another reason to invest, according to the Investec analysts.

‘When (not if) we next hit choppy waters, we expect NAV gains to be accompanied by a return to a premium rating, which would equate to significant outperformance of risk assets,’ the analysts wrote in a note.
Posted at 18/1/2024 10:15 by affemoose
I look at the 5 year chart for this share and see 1 significant rise to 500pence, which has now corrected back down, and this share is the same price as it was in 2021.

Thus the 'rocket up' has only happened once, the rest of the time it's pretty flat.

10 years ago it was trading at 200p. Today it is at 364. That's approx a 7% return per year. Not bad but not inspirational for what they claim to be.

You may be interested in the comment in Master Investor: hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/specialist-trust-recommendations-for-2024/

"Another trust operating in the same sector is the £1.6bn BH Macro (LON: BHMG), which has a strong long-term record as a diversifier. Recently however it has really struggled and slipped to a 12% discount, although the Board has rather belatedly started to buy back some of the shares.

The problem is the 28% stake owned by Investec/Rathbones that has turned a strong supporter into an ongoing seller. Numis believe that it may require a corporate action solution to reduce this position that is seen as an overhang by the market."
Posted at 16/12/2023 09:27 by eh9
Ft today re hedge funds like bhmg At this point, macro hedge fund managers and other investors who seek to harness broad global economic trends are rubbing their hands with joy. Generally speaking, the past two years or so have featured the big central banks all pulling in the same direction. With the exception of the Bank of Japan, each of them has been seeking to damp down inflation with hefty rises in interest rates.Now they are very clearly at different stages in terms of dialling rates back down, and each is dependent on how economic data releases shape up. Electoral cycles are also not synchronised. With investors unusually closely focused on fiscal policy, that means different major bond markets and currencies are likely to swing around in relation to each other. "As a macro strategist, this is what I dream about," said John Butler, head of macro at Wellington Management in London. "This is the best macro environment I've experienced in 30 years."
Posted at 01/9/2023 19:24 by pyufak
they don't have any other choice imho. The investors who paid through the nose at the raise earlier this year are looking at close to -20% share price performance. The directors will need to react to help manage the politics of that. What is the lesser evil for Brevan Howard here - a max 150m redemption (10% annually) to try correct the discount and they keep 90% in the master fund and the directors keep a job or risk letting this discount continue into 2024 and risking a -8% discount average throughout the '24 and class vote to close it all down.
Posted at 30/3/2023 21:19 by rambutan2
Annual Report out, excellent returns, but as expected, scarce details to chew on:

Performance and Economic Outlook Commentary

The economic environment last year proved favourable for our core macro
strategies. Surging inflation, combined with central banks reversing years of
monetary stimulus, triggered high levels of volatility across a range of
markets, creating a rich opportunity set. Our core theme of higher US rates
played out during the first three quarters of the year. When sentiment shifted
in the fourth quarter toward the possibility of an end to the rate-hiking cycle
in the US and concerns about recession in Europe, the Master Fund was able to
generate additional gains by positioning for lower rates. European interest
rate trading was much more tactical throughout the year, also contributing to
gains. Not only did the traditional macro directional strategies perform well,
but so too did a range of other strategies including FX, relative value,
inflation, and emerging markets. Looking to the future, it is worth considering
the recent past. The decade following the Great Financial Crisis saw the
longest economic recovery on record, fuelled by unprecedented monetary and
fiscal stimulus. Macroeconomic and market volatility was suppressed as
policymakers used an ever-growing set of policy tools designed to curtail
potential bad outcomes. Harvesting risk premium in this quiescent environment
was relatively straightforward for investors. Eventually, though, the
consequence of such hyper-easy monetary and fiscal policy was a surge in
inflation exacerbated by pandemic-related disruptions to the supply side of the
global economy. Against this backdrop, inflation broke out of 40-year ranges in
many developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) economies. Huge
uncertainties remain as to whether global central banks will succeed in
containing inflation without triggering severe recessions. Something always
breaks during a rate-hiking cycle and there's no such thing as a pain-free
recession. At the beginning of this year, it looked like investors were willing
to believe in a soft landing. However, by the end of the first quarter, bank
failures in the US and a near-miss in Europe reminded markets that
interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy are in for a rough time. The
near-term prospect of a credit crunch which slows economic activity has to be
evaluated against continued unwelcome inflationary pressures. Policymakers are
experienced, coordinated and determined. But, it's unclear whether they have
the macro prudential tools to reassure financial markets while simultaneously
using monetary policy tools to tame inflation. Soft landing may turn into
turbulence or worse. This task is made harder as economies adapt to new
geopolitical realities by accelerating re-shoring and supply chain
independence, while political classes remain incentivised to push in the
opposite direction by keeping the fiscal reins loose. Global imbalances, both
within individual economies as well as between them, in part due to economic
desynchronisation, are at generational extremes. As a consequence, the macro
landscape looks set to remain extremely interesting.

Brevan Howard wishes to thank shareholders once again for their continued
support.

Brevan Howard Capital Management LP,

28 March 2023
Posted at 08/2/2023 14:05 by sackofspuds
I did get a quote for it from interactive investor earlier today.

Offer expired at 12pm today for II customers so time to sit back and wait.

I'm a bit sceptical about the accuracy of the NAV on this.
Posted at 08/2/2023 13:03 by sackofspuds
I took a small punt by subscribing to the offer.The long term share price graph is good and how else do small retail investors get to invest in a macro hedge fund? Markets will, I think, be volatile for some time to come which may help this Trust. It's certainly opaque though.
Posted at 28/1/2023 21:37 by sackofspuds
The open offer is now live on Interactive Investor. AJ Bell is supposedly an intermediary too but don't see it listed with them yet. These trade at a premium to NAV of around 11% so the way I see it, if you were wanting to buy anyway, the 2% premium to NAV on this fund raise seems like a better option than buying in the market.

Obviously I can't see them repeating the stellar performance of 2022.
Posted at 21/10/2022 10:16 by melody9999
re recent RNS on transparency reporting.

As an investor in Brevan Howard Master Fund Limited (the "Master Fund"), the
Company has received from International Fund Services, the administrator of the
Master Fund, an Investor Transparency Report relating to the Net Asset Value of
the Master Fund as at 31 August 2022. The report is available on the Company's
website, which can be accessed at www.bhmacro.com.

I had a quick scan of the web site, but the repoort must be so transparent that it is invisible to me! if anyone else spots it, please post a link.

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