Berkeley Scott Share Discussion Threads

[sirrah] 23/12/2001 17:03

i also stated that i bought back in last week
i will continue to post but do not take anything i post as advice
the posts are merely my own thoughts
and i do research
anyone riding this stock would be a fool not to
all the best
ps
anyone else care to opine
and maybe shed a little light on this dark stock

[sirrah] 23/12/2001 16:01

semorgan
the best advice i can offer
is to not ask for advice
as to my posts they represent my thoughts
blind, uninformed or otherwise
or - as the jargon goes - imho
so my posts do not constitute advice
in the letters of the immortal acronym - dyor
however
one last request - and thanks alsfar -
does friday's late rally represent a dead cat bounce
and how high does a dead cat bounce
also
what about the closed auction buys
unusual for this stock for the last month
i shall wait and see what happens
i shall look for semorrgans 12,500 going through tomorrow
pps solaraze was and still is - albeit reduced - important to bgp
but represented very little of bgp's 100 million turnover in 2001
they are more than solaraze

[semorgan] 23/12/2001 14:16

Thanks for honest and Useable feedback

Interesting thread on SPA and SKP

[alsfar] 23/12/2001 13:29

semorgan - I am not qualified to give investment advice. You should ask yourself the question I posed earlier on this thread. 'Where is the shareholder value going to come from, should BGP be rescued?'. As for SKP, well not everyone is a committed fan of SKP. You would do well to read the threads on SKP first. I will agree that the picture for SKP, does look better now. If you prefer pharmas and are interested in a very very long shot, take a look at SPA. Currently valued around cash, no likelyhood of going bust (very low cash burn), but could be a multi-bagger if they get it right with their asthma trials (also mentioned in the Express today). As ever DYOR.

[sirrah] 23/12/2001 11:50

i held 135,000 at average 13p and did not sell at 16+p
i freaked friday before last and sold all at about 11p
i bought back at average 11.75p 116,000 last week
and still hold
ok
thats my hand
my point is there is time for selling until end of jan
i do not advocate selling jan 31 at 4p
just that it could go up in the new year
i am intent on getting into correspondence with bgp to satisfy myself about risk and
ps
quote from friday's press release
"Bioglan remains in active discussion with its banks and certain third parties with a view to achieving a longer-term solution for the company."
have a happy christmas and prosperous new year

[semorgan] 23/12/2001 11:40

All well an good saying HOLD and be positive (as I have) and reading YOUR threads over the Months to Buy/Hold - I lost 3 grand in 2 weeks thats the game as I said earlier, and am prepared to hold, as I am - what I said was to Spread the Risk, in fact, with a bit of simple maths, it is NOW not worth even selling
to do that

Just out of interest Sirrah, How much have you invested in BGP (being Honest)and how much do you gain to loose at a spin of a coin

Somebody earlier asked for feed-back, Negative No, I thought thats what these threads were for

[salpara111] 23/12/2001 10:48

The company has laid its cards on the table as "alsfar" notes. They have clearly stated that if the company is sold they do not expect the proceeds to cover the current net debt.
That is the clearest indication yet that there will be no value left over for shareholders. They have had to sell their rights to solaraze and I would guess that that would have been their most prized posession from a revenue stream potential so I would also ask, what is left for shareholders?

[semorgan] 23/12/2001 10:06

I invested £4,500.00 and have lost £3,000 in 2 weeks, I have the thought, If SKP are going to gain out of BGP loss then maybe I will Sell half and invest in SKP, Not a case of jumping ship, in fact far from it, just spreading the risk

TIP As below .....


BROKER'S TIPS


SkyePharma [SKP]
As at: Friday 21 Dec 2001

Strong buy


Skyepharma is a strong buy, says SG Cowen. Its has entered into a collaborative development agreement to accelerate the development of Psoraxine, a novel treatment for psoriasis. Psoraxine has shown exceptional activity in early stage clinical trials. SkyePharma will carry out the full clinical development programme up to the end of Phase II on a fee-for-service basis and has right of first refusal to acquire global marketing rights. SkyePharma is also taking a minority equity stake in the company that discovered the product. This is a tribute to SkyePharma's clinical development capability (already being used by GlaxoSmithKline for the Parkinson's drug Ropinirole). In addition, psoriasis is an area of substantially neglected medical need. The product fits well with the dermatology applications of SkyePharma's drug delivery technologies (which already includes Solaraze for actinic keratosis, a pre-cancerous skin condition). SkyePharma's shares have been depressed recently by concerns over the financial future for Bioglan, its licensee for Solaraze. These concerns are exaggerated. Even if Bioglan fails, SkyePharma should have little difficulty in finding a new licensee and it would probably on better terms now that Solaraze is an approved product.

[najib] 23/12/2001 08:27

i have invested large amount of money in bgp and after reading weekend articles i don't know what to do.i already lost 1/2 of my investment.any comment?

[sirrah] 22/12/2001 20:17

thanks wd
is biosphere still an earner for bgp after probs earlier in the year
any inf on this

[wetdream] 22/12/2001 19:25

I guess the question is - what's the dermatology business & Biosphere potential, worth?
The branded sales are about 50m a year with a 60% gross margin - in a seller's market that would be worth 150/200m - but it's not a seller's market. But even so I would have thought that 1.5/2 X sales was obtainable...if someone's interested.
As for Biosphere..who knows?!! might be of interest to SKP?!!

[sirrah] 22/12/2001 18:10

yes i've read that and more
not great reading
golden goose (or turkey deal) and all that
any ideas why so may trades on friday
the fourth highest in the last three months and at least 75% buys
of those 1.4M @ 8.5p; 0.45M @ 9p; 0.17M @ 9.5p; 1.43M @ 10p; 0.154M @ 11p and 0.2M @ 12p
anyone with any scenarios for a price rise
i thought well this is a six week rumour period
for a speculation fed upper and downer
but i cannot see anything to speculate about at the moment
all thoughts welcome

read the 19 november press release
soloraze and adoxa contributed 1.3M sales so 1.3% turnover of bgp
net profit from novation of sales 2.5M so nearly twice the net contribution
without considering the growth potential of the application
so it was to be a front runner for bgp but bgp have other products
what now of biosphere
is there potential for increased revenue
it would be good if the management could produce a press release to say where all their products and r+d are going
in fact i shall email them before year out
down side of solaraze deal needs neutralising

so lets have some reasoned discussion negative and positive alike
as long as it is sound and unemotive

[alsfar] 22/12/2001 15:04

From the FT today. Much as anyone (with an open mind) would expect. Perhaps one of you diehard rampers would explain just where is the shareholder value to be found in this company? What rescue scenario do you forsee, that apparantly nobody else can?



"...However, the pharmaceuticals group admitted that even after the deal, it did not have sufficient working capital to last a full year. Moreover, it said if talks resulted in an acquisition of the company, proceeds were unlikely to exceed current debt of Pounds 105m. "Liquidation has to be a strong possibility for the company," said Emma Palmer, analyst at WestLB Panmure. The only option other than acquisition would be recapitalisation of the group, but this was unlikely to succeed, she said."

[saturn5] 22/12/2001 10:31

Its not all good for SKP.
If BGP goes under there will be a kickback onto SKP

[mad trader] 22/12/2001 10:00

seems to me there only hope is some sort of fundraising ie rights issue at 2p like i keep posting,this can only fall further and a very easy short to start the new year on a high.

[harry kaplan] 22/12/2001 00:59

Only one mm left on bid of 9p -- next could be 8.5p or 8p -- too late its alredy gone. Still at least 4 mms on bid of 8p! Either this is a brilliant opportunity or a last chance to bail out!

[sirrah] 22/12/2001 00:52

hope you're right evansmi

[evansmi] 22/12/2001 00:32

The MM's is only £8000 worth of trade. I wouldn't read too much into that. Still more buys than sells, and I wouldn't be suprised if we saw a few BIG buys later today as the big boys dip there toes to catch a bounce

[iantc] 22/12/2001 00:31

BGP fall at the last fence (BAS///D) IT WAS A GAMBLE HEY WIN SOME LOSE SOME not worth 1p now read statement if they can find a buyer the price may not cover thier debt so nothing for shareholders money to end of jan then fire sale imho ,good luck for the future guys

[sirrah] 22/12/2001 00:30

godin
my post from phone call to Lisa Baderoon Buchanan Communications
1st line correct
it is the assumptions that has driven the price down
and what happens thereafter is up to how the press report it
with bank stand off until end of jan
plenty of time for the rumours to fuel the price
just look at 10 days ago

[godin] 22/12/2001 00:21

sirrah 1st assumpion/line wrong second right imho

[rogerman] 22/12/2001 00:17

i'm not a shareholder of bioglan. but my advice would to be careful. think twice before doing anything.
its happened to me in scotia holding.
i'm not a fan of pharma companies.