Fairly lacklustre update
Lower output than 2022 and average selling prices down to 300k from 315k
Doesn’t look like any major recovery will take place this year due to rising mortgage rates. |
Hi, I have recorded a 61-minute podcast with fellow investors Roland Head, Mark Simpson and Bruce Packard where we discussed Roland's investment in BELLWAY, Mark's investment in LUCECO and Bruce's investment in SUPERDRY. We also debated whether investors should run concentrated or diversified portfolios. I hope you enjoy the conversation!
Maynard
[Podcast] BELLWAY, LUCECO And SUPERDRY With Roland Head, Mark Simpson, Bruce Packard And Maynard Paton #BWY, #LUCE and #SDRY |
Hi, I have recorded a 40-minute podcast with fellow investor Roland Head all about Bellway! We talked about Roland buying at £17 during October alongside the builder's range of homes, growth record, cash flow, balance sheet, immediate prospects, dividend yield, discount to NAV and much more!
Maynard
[Podcast] BELLWAY With Roland Head And Maynard Paton #BWY |
freehold should mean freehold,
not some clause tucked away saying you need permission
to change lender, michael gove needs to get his act together |
Russ Mould for DT's Questor has column of the interims with a hold. |
Sit management might?
I would blame spellchecker! |
'suitorivate' has to be the word of the year so far..
Would you recognise a suitorivated shareholder if you passed one in the street? |
Fair question if buybacks suit private shareholders like me more than dividends and I am going on basis they suit management as it feeds through to keys of their remuneration plan, although I have not checked that.
I see NTAV was 2819p so a good discount though I need to check how high it is in historical terms. |
Not sure a share buy back scheme is the best way of returning capital to shareholders? |
Yes decent not to say boring results.
I note the £100m share buyback in terms of the £2.5b Marcap and if I have time I will check how this ratio of share buyback to Marcap compares to other big builders.
No surprise that the cash disbursed on their land bank will be reduced in the next 12 months.
I note dividend payments are roughly £150m pa. I take their comments on dividend cover to assume that the decreased profitability I guess we will see next year will not lead to a dividend reduction.
No surprise that next FY sales will be lower. I note the reduction in the March 12 order book from £2.2b last year to £1.6b this year and do not know how that compares with their competitors.
Note regional differences.
I go on the basis that for the next 6 months the share price will be in the 1900/2350 range and on that basis do not anticipate buying or selling. |
I have had a read of the TU.
BWY is the only major builder I hold so I cannot compare and contrast with the very recent statements of the other builders.
I note no comment about supply shortages and while they reference inflation they do not make a song and dance about it.
I note recruitment freeze which makes sense in terms of their land bank activities but do not know how many people they directly employ in areas where there have been shortages ie plumbers, ie IT people.
As an IBST shareholder I note that production will be broadly flat and as an INL shareholder I note land bank purchase slow down and them backing out of previously agreed deals.
Reading this TU had not moved me to buy or sell and my current reading is that the share will meander in the 2000/2300 range. Given that sales price only increased 1.6pc and the guidance they gave due to increased social housing there must be considerable margin pressure. |
Polar capital increase there stake what's brewing |
Today's Questor is supposed to have an article on BWY as a buy, written by Richard Evans, but I can't find it; it is online. can somebody please copy it here, thank you |
Bellway. Demand slowing and another £346.2m for cladding/safety improvements.
House price inflation was just above cost inflation but house prices are expected to fall, so margins are likely to be squeezed.
On top of demand falling.
Bellway sees post-Grenfell building safety bill hit £514m
"Bellway said construction cost inflation was approaching 10% during the year which was offset by house price inflation." |
 Bellway plc posted solid prelims for FY22 this morning. Total revenue rose by 13.3% to a new record £3,536.8 million, housing completions grew by 10.5% and ahead of target to a record 11,198 homes. Underlying profit before taxation rose by 22.5% to £650.4 million, underlying EPS was up 19.9% to 420.8p. The balance sheet is resilient with year-end net cash of £245.3 million and proposed total dividend per share growth of 19.1% to 140.0p, representing dividend cover of 3.0 times underlying earnings. The business is starting to see demand moderate with weekly reservations down 12.4% at 191 per week in the 9 weeks since 1st August. Valuation is very attractive with forward PE ratio at 4.9x and dividend yield over 7.2%. The macro environment and higher interest rates are the obvious cloud, the UK is probably already in recession which could last through most of next year as well. BWY is a solid UK home builder already at an attractive price, but there is no rush to buy. Monitor for now...
...from WealthOracle
hxxps://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BWY/212 |
Wow, very nice results, recent trading barely impacted and almost 20% dividend increase! |
What would the dividend be tomorrow, any guesses |
For the record a couple of days back I did receive a very clear email from IR saying that for value preservation/creation reasons we will not be seeing buy backs in the foreseeable future.
Let us see what Tuesday week's prelims announcement brings.
I see that the volume of trades in September was the 2nd highest over the last 12 months and that October volume is high. I also went through all the trades of today. I saw that there was one for £2m+ and the next highest was £70k |
A few days back I wrote to IR asking them what they have said publicly about buy backs but no surprise have heard nothing.
I also pointed out that they ignored their private shareholders ie no IMC type presentations and an AGM on Newcastle-fair enough-but first thing in the morning at 830.
The percentage of shares hely by people over 3pc is only 12pc and as 2 of these are Vanguard and Blackrock it may be tracker fund money. |
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