Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[cravencottage] 07/9/2020 20:59

Just follow the directors!

[topvest] 07/9/2020 19:48

lefrene - very interesting. Lots of scary stuff out there if you simply lift the bonnet!

[lefrene] 07/9/2020 10:00

topvest, if you go to www.wallstreetonparade.com and search 'repo market' and scroll down to 'earlier' to reach an article on 20th Sept 2019, you will discover that the repo-market froze on 17th Sept2019. The reason it froze was because the reserve banks that operate this $20 billion a night overnight lender, realised that approx half of the hundreds of banks they deal with were in very real danger of going bust that very night. Within minutes the FED stepped in with $20 billion, and by the end of the week had pumped in $200 billion. It is thought that in excess of $14 trillion has so far been created to keep things afloat. The situation is thought to be between four and ten times worse than the 2008 mortgage bond collapse. Now when you have a calamity of this scale where you will likely have to create $100 trillion (the 2008 whoopsie cost $29 trillion) to keep the plates spinning, I just wonder what you might have to do to divert public attention away from the self inflicted disaster, and to provide a cover for the creation of vast amounts of fiat money?

Nice to see BEG getting valued this am.

[rimau1] 07/9/2020 09:46

At last! What is the catalyst this morning? I wonder if NT has bought back.

[tole] 07/9/2020 09:17

Yes those large trades seem to have cleared the way. Have been adding at this level.

[daneswooddynamo] 07/9/2020 09:12

Looks like the overhang might have been cleared

[topvest] 06/9/2020 16:58

I agree with you on yielding value and quality coming back over the next few years, at least on a relative basis. All the hot money is in the technology stocks, but it won't be different this time!

[topvest] 06/9/2020 16:47

Hi Aleman - I fully agree with you on Blue Planet as an investment trust. Fortunately, I only have a very small historical holding which is not cost effective to sell. Their investment strategy has been poor - hyperactive, eclectic, high costs and leveraged positions.

It's their macro-economic views that struck my attention. Maybe extreme, maybe not, but at least they are putting in a view as to how it might play out which I haven't really seen anyone else commit to. I don't know whether it's an area that investment managers would rather not express a view on or where they are keeping quiet, but surely there should be more analysis of the end game of QE and the distortions arising. Not even the best investors seem to have any real view on the dangers of central bank policies.

QE is over 50% in the EU and approaching 40% in the UK and US. Presumably this stimulus cannot go much higher otherwise you are going to get to a position where central bank balance sheets > global GDP and global debt? At this point effectively all world government debt has been wiped! I think what they are actually saying is the central banks may not necessarily beat the market at some point. Equity and debt bubbles are everywhere....Technology disruptor stocks on massively stupid valuations. Greek and Italian 10 year debt yielding c1% when they should be paying 10%+ for the obvious default risk over that duration. How long can all this go on?

[aleman] 06/9/2020 13:00

topvest - I think we can all share the concerns expressed there but I'm not sure about their commentary and execution. Their views seem extreme and they seem to be taking extreme but somewhat eclectic positions. Worse than that, they seem to have got much wrong and have had dire performance (-50% in 3 years for income and capital) aggravated by excessive expenses. It looks like one that needs a long barge pole and a clothes peg. Whilst banging on about debt, they don't seem to consider that a fair chunk has been bought up by central banks and exposure to an odd mix of risky debt does not seem the ideal way to play their vision of the future. They seem very exposed if inflation rises, which can't be ruled out.

I find the current position unpredictable. Meeting all bad news with money printing seems unsustainable yet we said ultralow interest rates were unsustainable 11 years ago. I think the only way to tackle things is to spread your investments and avoid non-yielding paper assets in favour of yielding tangible assets with low debt. CocaCola, Unilever, Shell, etc. have been around for decades. Zoom and could be gone in a flash on any number of technical concerns and online players will be stung for tax now there are big deficits to close. All bonds could be mashed by inflation. (Will tax rises be an added pressure on CPI?) Gold is looking expensive if they keep bonds and banking reasonably stable. I think buying it for Covid is fading, though a China spike could bring a double top. Oil looks cheap. I've never really been a softs player but they're usually a mixed bag, meaning there something for those in the know.

I was positioned for recession and we have one so I've not done badly. Now I'm not sure if we will have a second leg - which could easily turn very bad - or a non-tech bull market. I say non-tech because tech just seems so expensive while other stuff fell. I think there are a few things out there to avoid and just spread the rest around carefully. BEG seems decent value on a good enough yield that looks set to rise. It should go up a bit if everything else goes down but pays income if not. Quite a lot of other stuff looks moderately priced now and is probably worth starting to slowly accumulate if you avoid the sectors I mentioned. What will happen? I've no idea!

[ny boy] 05/9/2020 17:04

Starting to look attractive, late next year should see waves of corporate collapses etc

A nice pull back! Bang on Support1

Support1: 80.00 Support2: 66.56
Resistance1: 93.60 Resistance2: 102.00

[topvest] 05/9/2020 16:30

A very worrying and insightful investment manager report, presumably from Ken Murray. The clearest articulation that I have seen of the central bank initiated "ponzi-scheme" that is increasing the risk of the world financial system collapsing.
I've not read a better articulated summary - pages 12 to 18 are best.

hxxps://2862a025-bb94-41ba-90e8-6245c90eef96.filesusr.com/ugd/2dd9bc_a6de9ee03d5b4aa4b996fdfebda8411a.pdf

Be interested in Aleman's thoughts in particular!

[cravencottage] 04/9/2020 21:45

Potential 50% upside within the next 6 months imo

As always DYOR!

[edmundshaw] 04/9/2020 20:33

70p looks tasty! Yes, please... :)

[farnesbarnes] 04/9/2020 17:39

Discounting the April crash, BEG is bang on rising support at 80p. Otherwise, support at 70, then 62.

[royalalbert] 04/9/2020 17:00

Exactly, that's why I've been buying slowly but surely, this will turn, unloved now but not in the future.

[fredfishcake] 04/9/2020 16:08

Seems strange to see this trending down when the chances are there will be a lot of companies failing in the not too distant future.

[p winky] 28/8/2020 07:24

17/9/20 is the date for that I believe

[cravencottage] 28/8/2020 06:21

A Trading Statement will be issued at AGM so that'll give us some idea how business is.

[cravencottage] 26/8/2020 22:21

Good opportunity to top up the SIPP

[cravencottage] 26/8/2020 22:16

Begbies Traynor Group Director Deals
Declared Type Director Pos. Volume / Price Value
24/08/20 BUY John May NED 34,940 @ 85.84p £29,992.00
08/01/20 BUY Peter Wallqvist NED 30,000 @ 88.00p £26,400.00
10/07/19 BUY John May NED 32,462 @ 76.99p £24,992.00

[stevieweebie2] 24/8/2020 19:20

YesMissed that, thanks for posting, might explain the tiny tick up at the end of trading.Hopefully we bottom out now.