In for a penny or in for a pound just let it ride , even if they rebrand in the future the shares are still valid.Sell now you'll get pennies on the pound , it seems some contributors on here encouraging that.This was a punt but just look at NVIDA micro cap for years and now.I suggest put this investment out of mind for the future.If nothing else at least you owned millions of shares |
Exactly! a falling knife catching mugpunter argument - mugpunting on there being a load more mugpunters to buy in should it return to trading to whom you will be smart enough to sell your shares. Yes their might be but equally there might be a massively diluting placing as part of getting going concern sign off. So yet again you prove my point. |
sk2 - "but you don't even understand the basics and you pooh pooh fair and rational assessments made be people who do at least understand the basics."
You still don't get it. Whether none, one or a million barrels of oil is extracted not a single drop will be coming the way of retail investors, punters or mugpunters. The punt is not on the basics or the fundamentals. The punt is on the direction of the share price.
If the creditors agree a deferral, the results are published as a going concern the share price can rise exponentially on sentiment. That is what the punt is on.
Here endeth your lesson for the day. Now you go and enjoy the sunshine. |
 You don't need to be an expert to make a judgement, but you don't even understand the basics and you pooh pooh fair and rational assessments made be people who do at least understand the basics. I am no expert and indeed used to mugpunt like you, until I got fed up of losing money and decided to at least learn the basics.
Try a little experiment at home. 50 BOPD means 1 litre every 10 seconds, roughly. Get a 1 litre measuring jug and fill it from the tap at a flow that takes 10 seconds to fill, try again to fill within 4 seconds (the absolute best case of current (rapidly declining) production and this new disappointing well). Then ask yourself can pathetic trickles like that ever excite real investors. Yes it will be real investors, not mugpunters, who need to dig into their pockets for the company to survive. Especially as all flowrates decline pretty steadily - see the CPR for the graphs on Laubden, which was going to be converted to a water supply well in 6 months time.
The 2P reserves should be re-estimated as part of the AR process as asset value impairments are needed to calculate NAV and it is crystal clear that the 13 Nov raised estimates of volumes and NPV and the originals in the CPR are way way too optimistic, they may come out as a few 100,000s not millions of barrels. The 2C resources (ie no account of whether they might be economically recoverable or not and on past performance they may not be as no money overall has been made by Rhein on any of its wells, yet the old ones still carry abandonment liabilities) are just worthless pie in the sky wishful thinking for mugpunters to salivate over. |
sk2 - "as you have both clearly and repeatedly demonstrated, you have no idea how the industry actually works and therefore no idea what the risks and rewards are."
All people who buy AIM shares have a modicum of understanding of the risks in each particular sector. All you seem to be saying is that you guys don't know as much as me about the oil sector. That may will be the case but it doesn't and shouldn't prevent anybody from taking a punt on a share priced at 0.006p that is promising cost cutting, flow rates and audited accounts come early August.
How many of us that buy pharmaceutical stocks have a degree in chemistry, biochemistry, pharmacoloy etc. |
I understand fully the difference between an investment and a punt. What PW and you don't understand is the difference between a punt, where you understand the risks and rewards and although the risks are quite high, the potential rewards outweigh it, so you take a punt even though it is quite likely you will lose, and a mugpunt where, as you have both clearly and repeatedly demonstrated, you have no idea how the industry actually works and therefore no idea what the risks and rewards are.
I read the CPR when it was released and commented on it here:
My conclusion was:
"If you like risky small oil projects then contact the Broker (Optiva) and ask to become a client and take part in the placing. They will be trying to raise about £7m gross and would be happy to hear from you. Personally these projects are not for me."
Ie its a punt take it if you like that sort of thing. However now the risks highlighted in the CPR, if you read it, have paid out clearly demonstrating that the assumptions which underpinned estimates of flow rates and recoverable volume (there is a complex relationship between the 2) were badly wrong, it is just a mugpunt at any price.
If you have taken that mugpunt and did not sell into that very brief and small spike yesterday you are now trapped. |
HMS687 - "Anyways, the point I were trying to ram home to SeeetK is to NOT get carried away by emotion"
sweet karolina is not getting carried away by emotion. He simply doesn't understand the difference between an investment and a punt. You would invest in BCE only if the company met the critieria he clearly explained and understands.
You would take a punt on BCE because the share price has dropped 70% and there is a slim chance the company will come to an agreement with its creditors, sign off the accounts in August as a going concern and stablelise the oil flow between 50 - 100 bopd. |
Please all forgive my typos - I’m kinda dyslexic or whatever especially when I use my tiny iPhone
Anyhiws, tge point I were trying to ram home to SeeetK is to NOT get carried away by emotion |
Oh dear - you really must follow some golden rules about investing such as only invest what you can afford to lose , buy low, sell high etc
Regards the 2P oil absolutely it was re used up from approx 3.5 mill barrels to aporox 7.5 mill. But even like you say some of this upwardly re used figure has been damaged it’s still an awful lot - eienentary arithmetic as I tried to explain earlier.
Yes I’m no expert on oilers but don’t try to teach this old dog about investing with your selectively chosen posts.
You know damn well there are well over 30 mill 2C RESOURCES. (I use the word resources to mean oil. Not to mention other explorations potential. Surely you’re aware if all this no ?
I reiterate; the important thing right now is for tge company survival in tge wake of credit calls etc. But they seem to be finally dealing with the issue by stupid costs reduction and so on.
Personally and mentally I’ve written this off simply because I can afford to do so. But I’m certainly not going to throw my towel in for a few hundred quid which is all I’d have got artists prices. In fact a few tons bought me a few million shares today.
I am extremely happy now to await what happens. Another investing rule is Rusj/Reward and using todays prices which idiot in their right mind would sell rather than buy a few today. |
I doubt it was even possible to get a short on this uber dog - there is no institutional borrow available. The buying would have been mugpunters like PW and HMS who don't understand how any of this really works but like getting millions of shares for seemingly very little money.
Anyway nothing to do now but wait and see what happens |
Clearly shorts closing today. |
HMS,
"the oil resources value keeps getting reevaluated but even if a future figure is much lower for this field - it’s STILL an awful lot if oil ( even let’s say just half of the 8 mill barrels)."
Thanks for proving me right - you don't even know the basics. 2P Recoverable reserves is what we are talking about, not resources, which are not really worth talking about (ie your "the other some over 20 mill barrels identified at time of purchase of Rhein.")
The best estimate before the first drill was 3.78m with average early years flow rates of around 700 BOPD. Buoyed up by better than expected well characteristics, which would give 900 BOPD flows, they upped it to 7.24m. See RNS of 13 Nov:
It turns out the well can only produce between 50-100 BOPD because of poor permeability, so that dramatically reduces the recoverable reserves well below the original estimate. Reserves are estimates based on assumptions and not facts. The assumptions made turned out to be badly wrong. Because of this firstly the company has lost all credibility by upping the reserves when they should have been reducing them. Secondly the outstanding future you dream of really does not exist because recoverable reserves and BOPD are absolutely what matter and therefore are what will determine whether the company can raise the money it needs to survive.
Can I suggest that you use the time whilst you are trapped to learn the basics about the business you are investing in. |
Well if you didn't get out today your money is now frozen or even lost if things don't improve! |
SeeetK : I thank you for your response
Couple of points though to note : the oil resources value keeps getting reevaluated but even if a future figure is much lower for this field - it’s STILL an awful lot if oil ( even let’s say just half of the 8 mill barrels). Secondly, this figure doesn’t exclude the other some over 20 mill barrels identified at time of purchase of Rhein. Not to mention any future explorations completely outside Germany.
I’m sure you’d concur that the main g to hing is not actual amount of oil or even bopd - but actual SURVIVAL.
This is where the nites of yidsy are hugely exciting - getting rid of firmer crooks in the company like Larry; and secondly the costs evaluation - huge reduction already identified.
IF this Company survives than we have an outstanding future in prospect. Don’t fidget, even just price of crude could potentially double from what it is now (WW111 ?)
My current buys are just toy money as proper purchases were over a year ago.
I know you have your own convincing arguments for yourself at least but if ya all gonna be about integrity and honesty from now on. I’m happy to give tge bee guy a chance - could even line up some new takeover fur us |
BMN and BCE breaking out today |
HMS, like PW, you employ classic mugpunter logic. In your case you are enticed by the massive number of shares you can get for a relatively small investment. Both of you have no idea how big a risk you are taking - nobody does because the information we really need about how big the liabilities are has not been released and you have no idea of the potential reward as the recoverable reserves have not been recalculated based on the poor permeability and you have no idea how many shares will need to be issued just to survive. The chances of a fresh drill getting funded are minuscule and even if it were somehow to happen, it would be at the expense of massive dilution.
You are catching a falling knife on the mistaken belief that you only lose if you sell and what goes down must go up - classic mugpunter thinking and those who are selling now whilst they still can thank you and others like you for it. |
Or it could really continue the turnaround - and that’s before fresh drill
You’d be really chatting yourself then wouldn’t you ?
Stop getting carried away either eay |
We have had the pump and now comes the dump.
Best of luck mugpunters, remember when the market closes today you are trapped in a company that you really have no idea what recoverable reserves it does have nor how many shares it will have to issue just to survive, assuming it can survive at all.
Yes PW you have already proved you are the typical clueless mugpunter. |
next bagger is INHC also worth a punt will bag next week |
sk2 - I told you this was worth a punt, not an investment just a punt. |
Like others I’m losing lots here on paper value so to buy a few more million shares for a few hundred quid I must say was enticing. My order has now got filled.
I think the best unwritten news is that the old guard have been put to sleep and the new chap deserves a go |
If a company was being run properly in the first place, it would not have a load of costs to cut, as they would not exist in the first place.
Getting rid of useless failed directors is always a good idea, not employing them in the first place is a better idea. However sacked directors want payment of outstanding fees and recompense for being sacked all of which sucks away at any cash the company has remaining. |
It's doing you a favour, it's saving yourself from your stupidity. |
I’m happy to buy a few more but trading platform just won’t let me.
Not brilliant scenario but if company can hang in by cost cutting ; even possible interest in crude prices then definitely worth an extra punt. |
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