Batm Advanced Communicat... Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 12/3/2024 17:03

Cheers..it hasn’t proved one of his better tips but at least he is honest enough to keep following and updating.

[fse] 12/3/2024 16:47

Had a chance to look at these figures more in depth.
The disappointing part is that whilst they are making progress its not what the market wanted to see.

Networking is the weak component largely due to a massive and total shift in direction to platforms that are only starting to generate revenue.
We knew revenue from Edgility would be anemic at first but it is a cumulative prospect. It would be nice to know the exact revenue specifically from Edgilty.
The company has expanded its sales force to reflect this but the results will not hit the bottom line for a while. Also as earlier commented companies plan to upgrade edge/cloud platforms but financial constraints are slowing down end adoption.
This is an area we need to see improvement and they seem critically aware of this.
New more expansive Edgilty platform was launched this year the company has won numerous awards so they should be able to convert some of this.

Cyber we knew the story here and there are plans to expand the offering so I would expect them to remain a bright sector for the foreseeable future.

Medical/Diagnostics. I re read this several times and there are some very real positives here that are maybe not getting picked up on.
Ex Covid sales were up 20.8% from last year and the company reports growth to be substantially up in H1/24 so this looks like a follow on trend.
In addition MDX Lab was rolled out and is doing well. They plan to launch Extra lab NGS prep this year.
These are expanded sales lines so they should boost 2024 sales.
The medical diagnostics division looks in good shape.

ADOR is being developed in tandem with Adaltis so there are expected spin offs for existing platforms and know how. RCA diagnostics is a very big deal and is very close to clinical trials. It is currently being trialled in University Hospital environment. They are still putting money into this so I feel that this is very much going forwards albeit slower than liked.

Sales and Marketing expenses were up @2m
Inventories were up 4m
Payables were down 5m

added link.

[resistance1] 12/3/2024 16:46

I see Simon Thompson has done a piece today in the Investors Chronicle



He rates it a Hold and like all of us here wants to see tangible results on the restructuring before getting excited. In the article there's some fresh insight on the divisional operations which he must have unearthed himself.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 15:50

Just a recap on this time last year when they had just seriously downgraded the forecasts that have just been missed.

Though the company does manage to make profit warnings sound positive !

‘Therefore, we now expect revenue of c.$132m (-c.22% from our previous estimate but still implying c.13% growth yoy) and adj. PBT of c.$5.8m (-67% from our previous estimate but still implying increasing 3-fold yoy). We will look for confirm our forecasts shortly.”

“Valuation thoughts: Based on our provisional forecast change, BATM trades on a FY23F PER of 47.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 9.4x but would expect multiples to fall significantly in FY24F. BATM is delivering strong underlying progress across the development of its technologies, these now visibly moving towards potential market inflection points, thus presenting a profitable high-growth opportunity across a span of technologies to investors. As underlying progress continues towards commercialisation, positive operating leverage to reported results should be expected in due course. “

Rinse and repeat.

[fse] 12/3/2024 15:41

Revenue came in as expected showing small increases in core business. Cyber was as we knew a bright spark and they are expanding their offering. The diagnostics business ex covid increased again. Edgility business is plodding along and revenue only starting to trickle in. This reflects what is going on in the market Edge solutions are a hot item but companies are lethargic in adopting and committing to the shift.
More money was invested in ADOR and hopefully they can expand on what is going on here. It appears to be somewhat behind schedule although clinical trials could begin any day.
Given the general backdrop results came in about as well as we could expect and less than hoped.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 14:34

They seem to have got Echo on board …a few to go.

[resistance1] 12/3/2024 14:19

Inflation impact on costs but not seen (positively) in revenues. Probably the nature of long term fixed price contracts with no clause for inflation. Anyway looking forward to see if my question tomorrow makes the cut. We all need reassurance that we will start to see the infamous 'inflection point' this year

[kemche] 12/3/2024 14:10

Whilst we have cut the revenue and profitability figures we have done so positively. And not negatively/

Alrighty then. Very Barry-esque.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 14:01

I had rather hoped the financials were kitchen sinked in 2022 after successive warnings and that 2023 might surprise on the upside alas more kitchen sinking before maybe they can beat expectation..how far does it have to drop to get a beat in ??
Just mentioning again the comments on inflationary impact on costs mentioned by the company..should there not be an inflationary impact on revenues?? Two sectors have seen falls in revenue.
Anyway
Shore Cap
“Whilst we reduce our FY24F revenue and EBITDA forecasts from $153.6m and $13.5m respectively to $143.0m and $9.4m (by 7% and 30%, EBITDA reflecting operational gearing from sales & marketing investment, driving future growth), we feel that BATM is delivering on the promise it set out at last year's June Capital Markets Day, against a visibly challenging economic and geopolitical background. Given the nature of the Group's IP, addressing real-world acute needs, we believe that the scope for better forecast outcomes and so upgrades is also real and high from this point.
We share BATM management's confidence in the outlook, therefore.”

[resistance1] 12/3/2024 13:36

The results don’t warrant a ‘joyous reception’ but they are steady. However for a growth company many expect more. The last 5-months (3 in the FY results) since October I’m sure hasn’t helped matters in terms of timelines for M&A/disposals but probably boosted Gov Cyber work. The Shore guidance seemed very positive in terms of the likelihood of upgrades. The share price will rocket with news of well priced disposals, networking contracts , M&A activity or dare I say ‘cherry picking’ approaches. For these reasons and many more, 2024 must deliver.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 13:21

Where is the evidence of shorting ?
It’s rather tricky evidencing such activity especially where a company has a dual listing as some trade imbalances could be resulting from arbitrage trades.
Can you point to where one can check the apparently growing short position??
I personally don’t see any reason for a joyous reception to these results and there seems little in terms of potential news flow in the forward looking.
Too much talk not enough delivery as always.

[gbenson1] 12/3/2024 13:14

It's been going on for 18 months or so according to the daily share trades,I think the main shorter must read this board, they didn't like the comment about getting fingers burnt, since I posted theres been a pick up in shorting volume!!

[resistance1] 12/3/2024 13:06

Gbenson there certainly seems to be some (short?) selling activity going on today a block of shares parcelled off into lots of small blocks to cause max impact. Good buying opportunity though.

[gbenson1] 12/3/2024 12:40

Personal I think the company are running a tight ship in testing times, as a genuine investor I want to see a well run company with an increasing share price BATM has a large Spreadex 3%+ short and I guess others, on the company, and you can see them daily keeping the share price suppressed, no matter how well the company do they've got their hand tied behind their back. I'm sure the company although not admitting to it keep an eye on the share price I believe in restarting the share buyback will help to decrease the amount of free shares in circulation and increase the share price over time, these shorts need to have their fingers burnt big time!!

[echoridge] 12/3/2024 12:20

Look, we could go back and forth on this stuff forever, kooba. I think I've been pretty clear on my position looking forward as far as the clear message(s) in these results that the company is serious about transitioning from an R&D to a sales/marketing focused company, supported by a now-delayed commitment to strategically focus on growth areas through disposals and/or targeted acquisitions. As for the delay in the latter, the war is a partial excuse, but BATM's size is also a factor. While I still expect some smaller deals, supported by their continued product and/or sales outperformance in Edge, Cyber and (don't shoot the messenger) ADOR, I increasingly think the management realise that much, much bigger, even transformational, deals are necessary and that will take a larger JV partner. We shall see

[kooba] 12/3/2024 11:52

I was hoping to see an acquisition in sales focused networking in US that they very much highlighted at the point of announcing the strategic review ..think that would have sent a clearer message of intent. Unfortunately the secondary businesses whilst not having the growth potential do provide a lump of profitable revenue , i am not sure though that these businesses will achieve what Batm might think is reasonable as they are a strange and diverse bag.
One could see a big number for cyber to the right buyer as the sector is hot ..
Financial Times: Israeli cybersecurity startup Wiz is in talks to raise funds at a valuation of more than $10bn.
That is meant to be core but if one of these hyper funded ventures in the sector came knocking with some real money I’d imagine that could be hard to refuse.
Something needs to happen because this is proving a very dull and disappointing counter ..we need action now and ideally some sales that show some momentum in Egility and some REALISTIC timelines for when ADOR might have a product to market.

[paulisi] 12/3/2024 11:46

Not really - bringing in banks to oversea M&A and possible sales.Not sure which comes first...

[echoridge] 12/3/2024 11:39

If I'm right that this is the inflection point both in the business focus AS WELL AS the strategic review commitment-resulting-in-significant-transactions, then I certainly expect to be rewarded. And as I said already kooba, I think the hints are there in these results and the early marketing videos. You yourself highlighted one a couple of posts before: the DECLINE in R&D spend. All I can say to that is, hoozah!

[kooba] 12/3/2024 11:27

Very , very early days to call a fundamental change in the business..so far very little has changed but maybe there are signs of early shift to marketing sales..whether that translates into revenues is yet to been seen, the company has invested significant money and time on predominantly two new growth areas Edgility and ADOR and as yet neither is showing signs of getting a return.
They way the company has just ignored another miss and from my recent posts ignored a huge down round in ADOR which must reflect lack of progress that i don’t like ..they just act like everything is just fine and dandy and continue to fail to deliver.
Hope your renewed enthusiasm is rewarded.

[echoridge] 12/3/2024 11:14

The 'netcash' is a figure that isn't used often and is net of leases, etc. so the 40m is a like-for-like success relative to gross cash at the interims. However, as for FORECASTS, its quite possible that number may fall, as I wasn't referring to the future. fwiw though, that cash fall projection is completely consistent with what I see as a company (finally) set on a path to move from R&D-driven to sales & marketing-driven, where expenses are now more directly focused on revenue generation and thus BATM are more likely to starting BEATING forecasts than the opposite. Its this fundamental business model shift that, for me, ungirds and makes the strategic restructuring moves in 2024 - for so long promised but un-delivered upon - so much more credible and likely.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 10:18

Echo your cash point does not align with the broker research

“At 31 December 2023, the Group had cash and short-term investments of $40.8m (31 December 2022: $44.2m).”

Thats clear enough gross position but doesn’t say that is a net figure which i think they define as net of debt and lease commitments.

The broker research today states net cash $26.3m ( $28.8m) and is forecast to fall to $24.1m current year. So cash is falling by over $2m a year.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 10:00

Oh and the adjusted 2024 PTP estimate is now $2.8m and was $6.9m before these results..if that is not another warning of not meeting market forecasts on the QT.. then what is.
Seems the company through Shore guidance is not worth the paper it is written on as they have not been close for years now…always having to pull guidance down.

[kooba] 12/3/2024 09:49

I note Shore are pulling back their 2024 revenue forecasts too..was
For 2024 the forecasts are not predicting some high real growth rates..
2024E T/O $153.6M EBITDA $$13.5M adj PTP $6.9M net cash $28.9M

Now 2024E T/O $143M EBITDA $9.4M

Quite significant when they try to put a grow spin on things!

I afraid they are serially missing their own brokers forecasts and continue to do so whilst not acknowledging the fact !

[kooba] 12/3/2024 09:44

$3m of currency gains ??
Reduced r&d spend
On balance the business is not really profitable and there is no clear line of sight to get there for now.