Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 14/9/2015 11:24

taffee - I'm frequently wrong.

When I discover I'm wrong I change my mind - what do you do?

CR

[ardent8] 14/9/2015 10:39

Not sure anyone disagrees with that. It is the when that is the issue.

[taffee] 14/9/2015 10:27

All the evidence points to uk being in a property bubble...all bubbles historically burst so it's fairly reasonable to predict this bubble will burst too...hmg have thrown the kitchen sink at property to stop the bubble bursting..the only thing left is dropping free money from helicoptors

[1gw] 14/9/2015 10:21

No-one's arguing that they are never wrong (I certainly am not). What we are suggesting is that someone who has been so wrong for so long might present their arguments with a bit less certainty. You continue to post as though you're certain that a housing crash is imminent (your May "short of the century" call on Bdev springs to mind) despite having been wrong on this for 5 years.

Even if you are right in your general thesis (that housing stocks are due for a correction or worse at some point in the next few years), what on earth makes you think that you have any ability to make market-timing calls on housing after all the evidence to the contrary?

[taffee] 14/9/2015 09:57

Oh and the point I made that emergency rates are with us because things are very very bad is completely true

[taffee] 14/9/2015 09:46

No...but then I didn't expect emergency rates to continue to 2015 fls qe and the Looney help to buy overpriced property

I have no doubt if I was sad enough to trawl through your posts I could select some wrong calls

Try to argue the points not the person....had rates risen as expected and other props not bought in then the property bubble would have popped

[1gw] 14/9/2015 09:36

Taffee - I'll post these 2 examples (again) then of how you have consistently been calling it wrong since 2010. Can you show us any posts where you changed your mind and got bullish on housing in between?

Equally, can you show us any evidence that you acted on any of these calls - i.e. a post where you told us that you had taken out or increased a short position on any housing stock?

Barratt Developments - The Positive News Thread - BDEV
taffee - 01 Aug 2014 - 17:26:53 - 13365 of 13768
rates are at emergency levels for reason...things are very bad...
property and stock bubbles are bursting as we speak

Taylor Wimpey (TW.)
taffee 25 Oct'10 - 09:06 - 4678 of 15343 0 0
slim prospect?.....uk housing bubble is bursting and could fall 50%...tw land bank is based on lunatic prices therefore the tw business model is potentially buist

[taffee] 14/9/2015 08:15

I rest my case.....I mean as if investors are right all the time...we've all had our share of getting it wrong that's the nature of sharedealing...mature people don't call names like in a School playground

Just like oil was going to $200 now Goldman think it will be $20....I hope we all made money selling
Oil and oilers

[cockneyrebel] 14/9/2015 08:14

New highs taffee.

CR

[rwlly] 14/9/2015 07:51

Hope all you bulls realise there has been more taxpayers money pumped into the housing market than the banks, but at least with the banks taxpayers will get most of their money back, no chance with housing.

[taffee] 14/9/2015 07:18

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard12:21PM BST 13 Sep 2015 Comments407 Comments
Debt ratios have reached extreme levels across all major regions of the global economy, leaving the financial system acutely vulnerable to monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, the world's top financial watchdog has warned.
The Bank for International Settlements said the wild market ructions of recent weeks and capital outflows from China are warning signs that the massive build-up in credit is coming back to haunt, compounded by worries that policymakers may be struggling to control events.

[shoobmeister] 14/9/2015 07:16

3 years!? This balloon has been on these boards for about 6 years posting the same shoite while people make money.

[taffee] 14/9/2015 07:09

It's only profit if you sell...meanwhile US deciding whether to raise rates
This week which could be significant

[stuart37] 13/9/2015 17:20

If me being "hoodwinked" = share price gain of over 140% then bring it on! I think there's a big scratch in the groove taffee.................

[shutittrev] 13/9/2015 16:05

Taffee.....You are pathetic....you have spouted your drivel for about 3 years and have been hopelessly wrong. You should hang your head in shame, if holders listened to your 'advice' we and our families would have lost money. You are beneath contempt and an absolute disgrace. Remember my friend, bad things happen to bad people.....it's not too late to unreservedly apologise and say that you got it wrong....

[rwlly] 13/9/2015 11:47

But the problem with persistant low interest rates it undermines government policy to encourage people into private pensions, it is also encouraging mortgages which are far too high. If ever there were a natural disaster ie shortage of food which caused the price to escalate most peaples budgets will be tied up in mortgages so they will have to choose between feeding themselves or defaulting on the mortgage.

[taffee] 13/9/2015 10:23

Funny that...demand fell off a cliff in 2008/2009 when rates were above 5% and supply went through the roof It's only the current emergency and lunatic policies
Have created this speculative bubble...500k people can fit in 145k homes....this whole house of cards is gonna unravel and bulls will feel hoodwinked

[rwlly] 13/9/2015 09:45

Where there is demand there is a market, What sort of statement is that? There is still a demand for oil surely demand for milk and wheat are the same yet prices have almost halved in the last 12 months.

[lauders] 13/9/2015 07:59

Page 22 of this document says enough for me:

Where there is demand there is a market. I am staying in until the demand diminishes. That could still be sometime and if I had listened to taffee or you rwlly I would have been out of pocket now.

[cockneyrebel] 12/9/2015 19:14

rwlly - interest rates aren't going up at any pace for years. Oil and minerals and soft commodities all getting cheaper. Wage rises tame, immigration high, which brings in cheap labour and reduces wage rises. No bargaining power for civil service jobs. Supermarket price wars through over supplied market. The only reason rates are going to rise is to give the central banks a bit of fire power to reduce rates at a later date as a stimulus in future weakness.

All imo

CR